Agentic Commerce Statistics 2026

Axis Intelligence Research · Alex Rivera · July 9, 2026 · CC BY 4.0

ACTG™ · 55 Data Points

$20.6B

U.S. AI platform ecommerce 2026 · ~4× 2025 · EMARKETER Dec 2025

$67B

Cyber Week AI-influenced sales 2025 · 20% of all orders · Salesforce

13×

AI order growth on Shopify Q1 2026 YoY · fastest channel ever tracked

ACTG™ 51

AI Commerce Trust Gap · U.S. Q2 2026 · Axis Intelligence Research

$15T+

B2B via AI agents by 2028 · 90% of all B2B purchases · Gartner Nov 2025

+393%

AI retail traffic YoY Q1 2026 · +1,324% since Oct 2024 · Adobe ADI

ACTG™ — AI Commerce Trust Gap Index — U.S. Q2 2026

51/ 100 · Axis Intelligence Research

U.S. · Q2 2026

AI Commerce Trust Gap Index™ — original metric by Axis Intelligence Research.
Formula: ACTG™ = AI Activity Score − AI Authorization Score
65% of U.S. consumers trust AI to compare prices; only 14% trust it to place orders. The 51-point gap is the structural ceiling on autonomous agentic checkout adoption today. As spending caps, instant revocation, and cryptographic agent identity mature, the index is expected to fall.

Compare prices

65%

Research products

41%

Interpret reviews

33%

Hunt for deals

31%

Place orders auto.

14%

ACTG™ formula: Activity anchor = % U.S. consumers trusting AI to compare prices (YouGov 2025 via Commercetools 2026). Authorization floor = % trusting AI to place orders autonomously (Checkout.com / Commercetools Agentic Commerce Radar, May 2026). Score range 0 (no gap) → 100 (max gap). ACTG™ recalculated quarterly. — Axis Intelligence Research, CC BY 4.0 — Cite as: Axis Intelligence Research, ACTG™ Q2 2026. | IBM-NRF study bars = 18,000+ consumers, 23 countries, Q3 2025 fieldwork; released January 7, 2026.

AI-Referred Retail Traffic Growth — Adobe Digital Insights 2026

Source: Adobe Digital Insights Quarterly AI Traffic Reports (Apr 2026, Jun 2026). 130+ top North American retailers. YoY = same month prior year.

AI vs Organic Search — Shopify Q1 2026 Conversion & Quality

Source: Shopify Q1 2026 Earnings (SEC Form 8-K, May 5, 2026); Shopify Enterprise Blog “AI-referred shoppers convert better,” May 2026. Index: AI referral = 100.

Agentic Commerce Market Size Projections — By Source & Scope

Sources: EMARKETER Dec 2025 (U.S. AI platform checkout only); Morgan Stanley AlphaWise Nov 2025; Bain & Co. 2024; McKinsey Oct 2025; Gartner IT Symposium Nov 2025 (B2B). All projections to 2030 except Gartner (2028). Different definitions — not directly comparable. Bars in USD billions.

ACTG™ Trust Funnel — U.S. Consumers by Market

Sources: YouGov 2025 / Commercetools Agentic Commerce Radar May 2026 (U.S. 65%/14%); Checkout.com Agentic Commerce 2026 report, June 9, 2026 (AU 62%; UK ~58%). ACTG™ = Activity − Authorization. Axis Intelligence Research, Q2 2026.

Cyber Week 2025 — AI Agent Commerce Impact

Source: Salesforce press release, December 5, 2025 (investor.salesforce.com). Data from 1.5B+ global shoppers across 89 countries. “Influenced” includes AI recommendations + conversational service, not autonomous checkout only. Vendor-sourced; not independently audited.

AI Traffic Growth by Industry — Q1 2026 YoY (Adobe ADI)

Source: Adobe Digital Insights Q2 2026 AI Traffic Report, April 16, 2026. U.S. sites only. January–March 2026 vs January–March 2025.

B2B Agentic Commerce Readiness Gap (2026)

Sources: Forrester 2026 State of Business Buying (~18,000 global B2B buyers, Jan 2026); Gartner March 2026 survey (646 B2B buyers); BCG 2026 B2B commerce research. Gartner 90% B2B by 2028 forecast: IT Symposium/Xpo, Nov 2025, Orlando.

AI Commerce Performance Metrics — Platform Data 2026

Sources: Shopify Enterprise Blog AI Search Insights (May 2026); Adobe Digital Insights (Apr–Jun 2026); Salesforce Cyber Week report (Dec 2025); Checkout.com Agentic Commerce 2026 (Jun 2026).

Agentic Commerce Protocol Stack — Mid-2026 Snapshot

Protocol	Developer	Launch	Scope	Key Adopters	Type
ACP Agentic Commerce Protocol	OpenAI + Stripe	Sep 2025	Autonomous checkout inside AI platforms	Stripe merchants, 1M+ via Shopify	Consumer
UCP Universal Commerce Protocol	Google	Jan 2026 (NRF)	Full commerce journey: discovery → checkout	Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce, Stripe, Shopify, Etsy, Target, Wayfair	Consumer
MCP Model Context Protocol	Anthropic	Open source	Agent-to-tool communication (general)	Broad developer + enterprise adoption	Infrastructure
Verifiable Intent Mastercard framework	Mastercard + Google	Mar 2026	Cryptographic consumer authorization for agent transactions	FIDO / EMVCo / W3C open standard; FI adoption in progress	Infrastructure
Copilot Checkout	Microsoft	Jan 2026	AI-powered checkout via Microsoft Copilot	PayPal, Shopify, Stripe, Etsy	Consumer

Sources: OpenAI/Stripe ACP press materials Sep 2025; Google NRF 2026 UCP announcement; Search Engine Land UCP partner list; Mastercard press release Mar 5, 2026; EMARKETER Copilot Checkout analysis Jan 2026. ACP and UCP not yet interoperable as of Jul 2026.