DFRI reading for full-year 2025 — six providers published totals from $9.6B to $49.1B for the same sector and the same twelve months
4.93×
Internal spread within a single provider — PitchBook is the source of both a $9.95B and a $49.1B figure for 2025, split by dual-use inclusion
96.5
Capital-weighted DCC across the six billion-dollar rounds of 2026 — disclosure at company level is close to complete
94.1%
Of the $12.80B in 2026 headline round capital that is primary equity; the remaining 5.9% is preferred stock or committed credit
0.33–1.70%
Defense tech venture funding as a share of the $2,887B world military expenditure recorded for 2025, depending on provider
Axis finding — one sector, six totals
Published full-year 2025 defense tech venture funding, by provider
Absolute spread $39.5B
CrunchbaseMilitary, national security and law enforcement tags
$9.6B
PitchBook — FT scopeCompiled for the Financial Times
$9.95B
DealroomDefense tech startups
$11.2B
CB InsightsEquity only, own classification, dual-use included
$17.9B
S&P Global Market IntelligenceDefense-focused startups, round values
$29.0B
PitchBook — vertical scopeDeal value, dual-use included
$49.1B
0$12.5B$25B$37.5B$50B
Median of the six published totals: $14.55B · the gap between the highest and the lowest, $39.5B, is larger than four of the six figures themselves.
DFRI — Defense Funding Reconciliation Index. The index measures how far apart published totals sit for one sector over one period, across the Axis-tracked provider set.
DFRI = highest published total / lowest published total
Reading, full-year 2025: 49.1 / 9.6 = 5.11 across six inputs. Reading, first half 2026: 35.6 / 12.3 = 2.89 across three inputs. The input count is stated with every reading, because a three-input reading is not comparable to a six-input one. Nothing is estimated or weighted — every input is a figure the provider itself published. The index measures disagreement; it takes no position on which definition is correct. Sources: Crunchbase News · PitchBook · Dealroom · CB Insights · S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The same provider at both ends of the range
Published 2025 totals ranked, with the dual-use boundary marked
Amber bars include dual-use companies whose primary market is civilian. Source: provider publications, compiled by Axis Intelligence Research, 28 August 2026.
PitchBook figures for the same twelve months, two scopes
$9.95B was compiled for the Financial Times; $49.1B was supplied to Defense News. Ratio 4.93×. Source: both publications, August 2026.
Deal flow against dollar flow
Defense tech venture funding by year, Crunchbase basis, USD billions
2026 is a five-month figure to late May, not a full year. 2022–2024 restated by Crunchbase as a $2.8–3.8B range; midpoint plotted. Source: Crunchbase News.
Announced rounds per year against capital deployed
Dollars rose roughly sixfold from 2020 to 2025 while round counts roughly doubled. Source: Crunchbase News round counts.
Axis finding — disclosure is not the problem
DCC — Defense Capital Clarity, scored per round from the primary announcement
Capital-weighted 96.5
Round
Instrument transparency 40 pts
Valuation transparency 35 pts
Lead designation 25 pts
DCC
Anduril— Series H, $5.0B
40
35
25
100
Shield AI— Series G, $2.0B headline
40
35
25
100
Helsing— Series E, $1.8B
40
35
0
75
Saronic— Series D, $1.75B
40
35
25
100
Quantum Systems— Series D, $1.2B
40
35
25
100
Castelion— Series C, $1.05B
40
35
25
100
Cohort, six rounds, $12.80B headline capital
—
—
—
96.5
DCC grades how completely a financing announcement discloses its own capital structure. Full credit on instrument transparency requires the headline number to be unambiguous — either one named equity instrument, or an explicit split across equity, preferred and debt. Partial credit of 20 is available where a split is implied but not itemised.
DCC = instrument transparency (40) + valuation transparency (35) + lead designation (25)Cohort = Σ(amount × DCC) / Σ(amount) = 1,235,000 / 12,800 = 96.484375
Unweighted mean across the six rounds is 95.8. Helsing scores 75 because its Series E statement listed participating investors without designating a lead — a legitimate choice, not a failure. The reading that matters is the aggregate: at 96.5, companies are disclosing their capital structures nearly in full, so the fivefold divergence between published sector totals originates downstream, in how trackers aggregate, not in what companies withhold. Sources: company and lead-investor announcements, each fetched and dated.
What the headline number is actually made of
Instrument composition of every billion-dollar defense tech round, 2026 to 28 August
Primary equity share 94.1%
Anduril Series H · 13 May 2026
$5,000M
Shield AI Series G · 26 March 2026
$2,000M
Helsing Series E · 13 July 2026
$1,800M
Saronic Series D · 31 March 2026
$1,750M
Quantum Systems Series D · 2 July 2026
$1,200M
Castelion Series C · 19 August 2026
$1,050M
Primary equity — $12,050M
Fixed-return preferred — $500M
Committed credit facility — $250M
Two of the six rounds are not what their headline says. Shield AI's announcement is titled $2B and reads $1.5B of Series G equity plus $500M of fixed-return preferred equity, with a further $250M delayed-draw facility that the company keeps outside the headline — and which Axis therefore excludes from the denominator. Castelion's $1B is $800M equity and $250M of committed revolving credit.
Primary equity share = 12,050 / 12,800 = 94.14%
Debt against a contracted order book is priced on cash-flow visibility; equity is priced on terminal value. Axis reports the two separately rather than averaging instruments that mean different things. Sources: Anduril, Shield AI, Saronic, Castelion and lead-investor announcements; Quantum Systems and Helsing round terms as announced by the companies.
Concentration — the number moves with the denominator
Anduril, Shield AI and Saronic as a share of first-half 2026 sector funding
Numerator, fixed $8.75B
Against PitchBook, FT scope
71.1%
8.75 / 12.3
On the narrowest published half-year total, three companies account for close to three-quarters of everything raised.
Against Dealroom
50.3%
8.75 / 17.4
On the mid-range total, the same three rounds are almost exactly half the sector.
Against PitchBook, vertical scope
24.6%
8.75 / 35.6
On the broadest total, the same three rounds look like a quarter of a diversified market.
The numerator does not move. Anduril's $5.0B, Shield AI's $2.0B headline and Saronic's $1.75B are the only disclosed rounds of $1B or more announced between 1 January and 30 June 2026, and they total $8.75B. Every one of the three percentages above is arithmetically correct. Which one a reader sees determines whether defense tech reads as a three-company market or a broad one — which is the practical reason a provider name and scope belong beside every figure quoted from this sector. Sources: company announcements for the numerator; provider publications for each denominator.
Valuations and step-ups
Post-money valuations, billion-dollar rounds of 2026, USD billions
Quantum Systems reported as approximately $8B. Source: company and lead-investor announcements, March to August 2026.
Valuation step-up against the previous priced round
Anduril $30.5B to $61B; Shield AI $5.3B to $12.7B; Saronic $4.0B to $9.25B. Source: company announcements and prior-round reporting.
Regional split — a share that moved after the snapshot closed
United States versus Europe, half-year snapshot against the full Axis cohort
European burst 3.97×
Half-year snapshot — to 22 June 2026
United States$11.4B · 92.7%
Rest of world$0.9B · 7.3%
Anduril alone, share of the US total~44%
Axis cohort — 1 January to 28 August 2026
United States, four rounds$9,800M · 76.6%
Europe, two rounds$3,000M · 23.4%
Helsing, highest valuation outside the US$18B
Three European rounds closed inside five weeks after the half-year snapshot was taken — Stark at €500M (about $572M) in June, Quantum Systems at $1.2B on 2 July, Helsing at $1.8B on 13 July.
(1,800 + 1,200 + 572) / 900 = 3.97
Those three rounds together are just under four times the entire non-US total the half-year snapshot recorded. Anyone quoting the 92.7% US share as a current reading is quoting a figure that a single five-week window has already moved. Backdrop: European NATO members spent a combined $559B in 2025 and German expenditure rose 24% year on year to $114B, per SIPRI. Sources: PitchBook data compiled for the Financial Times; company announcements; SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, April 2026.
Capital allocation and the budget it is chasing
Billion-dollar 2026 capital by primary operating domain
Single-domain assignment by primary product line. Shares sum to 100.1% on independent rounding. Source: Axis Intelligence Research allocation.
Defense tech venture funding as a share of world military expenditure, 2025
Denominator: SIPRI world military expenditure of $2,887B for 2025. Source: SIPRI, April 2026; provider totals as listed.
Full provider ledger
Published defense tech venture funding totals, by provider, scope and period
Provider
Period
Total
Stated scope
Share of 2025 milex
Source
Full-year 2025 — six published totals, DFRI 5.11
Crunchbase
FY2025
$9.6B
Military, national security, law enforcement tags
0.33%
Crunchbase News
PitchBook
FY2025
$9.95B
Defence tech VC, narrow
0.34%
Compiled for the Financial Times
Dealroom
FY2025
$11.2B
Defense tech startups
0.39%
Dealroom, via CNBC
CB Insights
FY2025
$17.9B
Equity only, dual-use included
0.62%
CB Insights, via Defense News
S&P Global Market Intelligence
FY2025
$29.0B
Defense-focused startups, round values
1.00%
S&P Global Market Intelligence
PitchBook
FY2025
$49.1B
Deal value, dual-use included
1.70%
PitchBook, via Defense News
First half 2026 — three published totals, DFRI 2.89
PitchBook
H1 2026
$12.3B
Defence tech VC, narrow — US share $11.4B
—
Compiled for the Financial Times
Dealroom
H1 2026
$17.4B
Defense tech startups
—
Dealroom, via CNBC
PitchBook
H1 2026
$35.6B
Deal value, dual-use included — Q2 alone $15.0B
—
PitchBook quarterly
Reference points and prior years
Crunchbase
Jan–May 2026
$14.6B
Five-month figure, not a half-year
—
Crunchbase News
PitchBook
FY2024
$27.2B
As supplied to Defense News
—
Defense News, January 2026
PitchBook
FY2024
$37.9B
As published in vertical snapshot, 804 deals
—
PitchBook vertical snapshot
CB Insights
FY2024
$7.3B
Equity only
—
CB Insights, via Defense News
Median of six FY2025 totals
FY2025
$14.55B
Axis-calculated
0.50%
Axis Intelligence Research
Full round ledger
Every disclosed defense tech financing of $1B or more announced 1 January to 28 August 2026
Company
Date
Round
Headline
Primary equity
Other instruments
Post-money
Country
Lead investors
DCC
Anduril Industries
13 May 2026
Series H
$5,000M
$5,000M
—
$61.0B
USA
Thrive Capital, Andreessen Horowitz
100
Shield AI
26 Mar 2026
Series G
$2,000M
$1,500M
$500M preferred
$12.7B
USA
Advent International, JPMorganChase SIG
100
Helsing
13 Jul 2026
Series E
$1,800M
$1,800M
—
$18.0B
Germany
No lead designated by the company
75
Saronic Technologies
31 Mar 2026
Series D
$1,750M
$1,750M
—
$9.25B
USA
Kleiner Perkins
100
Quantum Systems
2 Jul 2026
Series D
$1,200M
$1,200M
—
~$8.0B
Germany
Blackstone, Noteus, Airbus, Advent
100
Castelion
19 Aug 2026
Series C
$1,050M
$800M
$250M revolver
$13.0B
USA
JPMorganChase SIG, a16z, Carlyle
100
Cohort total
—
6 rounds
$12,800M
$12,050M
$750M
—
4 US / 2 EU
—
96.5
Shield AI's further $250M delayed-draw facility is excluded, since the company itself keeps it outside its headline. Announced-but-unclosed transactions are excluded. Source: company and lead-investor announcements, each fetched and dated by Axis Intelligence Research.
Demand side and liquidity
The budget these valuations are underwritten against, and the first exit of the cycle
Item
Value
Detail
Source
US defence budget authority, fiscal 2026
Topline request
$961.6B
$848.3B discretionary plus $113.3B mandatory via reconciliation
DoD Comptroller, FY2026 Budget Request
Weapon-system accounts
$295.3B
Within the discretionary component
CRS report R48860
Procurement
$153.3B
—
CRS report R48860
Research, development, test and evaluation
$142.0B
—
CRS report R48860
Future Years Defense Program
None
No FYDP was released in 2026, removing the usual five-year visibility
Congressional Budget Office
World military expenditure, 2025
Global total
$2,887B
Up 2.9% in real terms; 11th consecutive annual rise
SIPRI, April 2026
29 European NATO members
$559B
European spending rose 14% in real terms
SIPRI, April 2026
Germany
$114B
Up 24% year on year
SIPRI, April 2026
Ursa Major — SPAC merger announced 25 August 2026
Post-transaction equity valuation
$2.3B
Pre-money $1.6B; Nasdaq listing expected Q1 2027
Ursa Major announcement
PIPE commitments
$350M+
About $110M funded at signing
Ursa Major announcement
Revenue, 2024 to 2025
$18.5M → $45M
A 2.43× increase; roughly $100M projected for 2026 by management
SPAC investor presentation
Capital expenditure ramp
$17M → $37M → $85M
2025 actual, then management projections for 2026 and 2027
SPAC investor presentation
Private capital raised since 2015
$380M+
More than 360 employees across six facilities
Ursa Major announcement
Ursa Major's 2026 and 2027 figures are management projections filed with the transaction, not outcomes. Axis reports them as projections.
Revenue multiples where revenue is disclosed
Valuation against trailing revenue, companies that disclosed both
Company
Valuation
Trailing revenue
Implied multiple
Note
Anduril
$61.0B
$2.2B (2025)
27.7×
Revenue more than doubled year on year, company-reported
Quantum Systems
~$8.0B
~€300M (2025)
~24×
Indicative only — USD valuation against a EUR revenue figure
Ursa Major
$2.3B
$45M (2025)
~51×
Post-transaction equity valuation, SPAC not yet closed
Castelion, Helsing, Saronic, Shield AI
—
Not disclosed
—
No multiple published — Axis does not estimate one
Where a company has not published revenue, Axis Intelligence Research leaves the row empty rather than modelling a figure. Source: company announcements and investor materials.
Definitions and method
DFRI — Defense Funding Reconciliation Index
Highest published sector total divided by the lowest, for one stated sector and period, across the Axis-tracked provider set. Readings: 5.11 for full-year 2025 on six inputs; 2.89 for the first half of 2026 on three. Methodology 2026.1.
DCC — Defense Capital Clarity
A 0–100 score of how completely a financing announcement discloses its own capital structure. Instrument transparency 40, valuation transparency 35, lead designation 25. Cohort reading 96.5 capital-weighted, 95.8 unweighted.
Cohort inclusion
A round enters if the headline amount is $1.0B or more, the announcement falls between 1 January and 28 August 2026, and a company or lead-investor statement exists. Announced-but-unclosed transactions are excluded.
Primary equity
New shares issued to investors in the priced round. Fixed-return preferred stock, revolving credit and delayed-draw facilities are counted separately, because they are priced on different terms and rank differently on a liquidation.
Dual-use
A company whose primary market is civilian but whose technology has defence applications. Whether these companies are counted is the single largest driver of divergence between published sector totals.
Revision behaviour
Small and undisclosed rounds report to trackers months after a period closes, so current-year totals are systematically understated when first published. All 2026 figures on this dashboard are provisional.
Currency
Figures are given in the currency of the source announcement. Where a euro round is expressed in dollars, the conversion is the one published by the reporting outlet on the announcement date.
What these metrics do not measure
DFRI measures published disagreement, not accuracy, and takes no position on which provider definition is correct. Neither metric says anything about whether the capital was well deployed, nor about undisclosed rounds, secondary sales or government non-dilutive awards.