China Rare Earth Statistics 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Sophie Winslow (Industrial Tech) | Last updated: September 16, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
China mined 270,000 tons of rare earth oxide in 2025, 69.2% of the world’s 390,000 tons, and still controls 85% of refining and 94% of sintered magnet output. Axis Intelligence Research’s Rare Earth Chokepoint Index (RECI) reads 85.3 out of 100 as of September 16, 2026 — and the suspension of Beijing’s October 2025 export controls expires in 55 days.
Quick Answer: How Dominant Is China in Rare Earths in 2026?
China produced 270,000 t of rare earth oxide in 2025 (69.2% of global mine output, per USGS), holds 85% of rare earth refining (IEA) and 94% of sintered magnet production (IEA). Its exports fell 11.1% by volume in January–August 2026 while export value rose 53.5% — an implied 72.7% jump in value per ton, according to Axis Intelligence Research.
Key Findings
- Axis Intelligence Research’s Rare Earth Chokepoint Index (RECI) stands at 85.3 out of 100 as of September 16, 2026, weighting China’s shares of mining, refining and magnet production by where replacement capital is hardest to deploy.
- China exported 39,441 tons of rare earths in January–August 2026, down 11.1% year on year, while the dollar value of those exports rose 53.5%, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.
- Axis Intelligence Research calculates that the value per ton of China’s rare earth exports rose 72.7% in January–August 2026, the arithmetic signature of a market rationed by licence rather than by demand.
- MP Materials realized an average of $93.87 per kilogram on NdPr oxide and metal in Q2 2026, Axis Intelligence Research calculates from company filings — 14.7% below the $110 Pentagon price floor and 36% above the 2025 USGS average of $69.
- The suspension of China’s October 2025 rare earth export controls (MOFCOM Announcement No. 70) expires on November 10, 2026, 55 days after this dataset’s publication.
How Much Rare Earth Does China Produce?
China’s 2025 mine production was 270,000 metric tons of rare earth oxide (REO) equivalent, unchanged from 2024, according to the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026. World output rose to an estimated 390,000 tons, so China’s official figure represents 69.2% of the total.
One caveat sits in the USGS footnote itself: the China number is a production quota and excludes undocumented production. Read it as a floor, not a ceiling.
Rare Earth Mine Production by Country, 2024–2025
| Country | 2024 (t REO) | 2025e (t REO) | Share of 2025 world output | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 270,000 | 270,000 | 69.2% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| United States | 45,500 | 51,000 | 13.1% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Australia | 29,000 | 29,000 | 7.4% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Burma (Myanmar) | 27,000 | 22,000 | 5.6% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Thailand | 2,100 | 4,800 | 1.2% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| India | 2,900 | 2,900 | 0.7% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Madagascar | 1,400 | 2,700 | 0.7% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Russia | 2,600 | 2,600 | 0.7% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Brazil | 560 | 2,000 | 0.5% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Nigeria | 1,500 | 1,500 | 0.4% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| World (rounded) | 380,000 | 390,000 | 100% | USGS MCS 2026 |
Shares calculated by Axis Intelligence Research (country output ÷ 390,000). Burma, Thailand, Madagascar and Vietnam figures are USGS estimates derived from China’s import records.
China’s Rare Earth Reserves
China holds an estimated 44 million tons of REO reserves, followed by Brazil (21 million) and Australia (6.3 million), per USGS. Because USGS reports world reserves only as “more than 85 million tons,” China’s share is at most 51.8% — meaningfully lower than its share of output.
That gap is the first clue to the whole story. Rock is not the constraint.
Sophie Winslow, Industrial Tech: Ask any plant manager where the bottleneck is and they won’t point at the quarry. USGS has to estimate Burma’s, Thailand’s and Madagascar’s output from China’s own import records — the ore is measured on arrival at Chinese separators. The mine table shows who digs; it doesn’t show who separates, and separation is where the queue forms.
What Is China’s Global Market Share in Rare Earths, Stage by Stage?
China’s share rises at every step down the value chain. The International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 reports that the top supplier’s share of rare earth refining fell from over 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025, the one energy mineral where concentration actually declined, thanks to new US projects and higher Malaysian output.
| Supply-chain stage | China’s share | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves (all REO) | ≤51.8% | 2025 | USGS MCS 2026 (Axis calc.) |
| Mining (magnet rare earths: Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) | 60% | 2024 | IEA Rare Earth Elements |
| Mining (all REO, official quota) | 69.2% | 2025 | USGS MCS 2026 (Axis calc.) |
| Refining and separation | 85% | 2025 | IEA GCMO 2026 |
| Sintered permanent magnet production | 94% | latest IEA figure | IEA commentary [older data] |
[older data] — the 94% magnet share is the most recent IEA figure Axis Intelligence Research could locate in a fetched IEA document.
The Axis Rare Earth Chokepoint Index (RECI)
RECI — Rare Earth Chokepoint Index — is Axis Intelligence Research’s single-number measure of how much of the rare earth value chain runs through China, weighted by how hard each stage is to rebuild elsewhere.
Formula:
RECI = (0.17 × China mining share) + (0.50 × China refining share) + (0.33 × China magnet share)
Why these weights: the IEA estimates that meeting magnet rare earth demand outside China requires around $60 billion of investment over the next decade, with refining accounting for nearly half and magnet manufacturing around one-third. Axis Intelligence Research rounds that split to 0.50 and 0.33 and assigns the remainder (0.17) to mining. Capital intensity is a reasonable proxy for how long a chokepoint takes to dissolve.
Reading as of September 16, 2026:
| Component | Input | Weight | Contribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining share | 69.2% | 0.17 | 11.8 | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Refining share | 85% | 0.50 | 42.5 | IEA GCMO 2026 |
| Magnet share | 94% | 0.33 | 31.0 | IEA |
| RECI | 85.3 / 100 | Axis Intelligence Research |
Axis Intelligence Research also estimates a 2035 scenario reading of 77.8, substituting only the IEA’s projection that refining concentration falls to 70% if planned projects arrive on schedule, and holding mining and magnet shares constant. The 7.5-point drop tells you something the headlines don’t: refining diversification alone barely dents the index while magnets stay at 94%. The IEA’s own pipeline data backs that up — planned magnet output outside China covers only about one-third of expected mine output by 2035.
Sophie Winslow: A 15-point gain in refining moves the RECI by 7.5 points. That’s the denominator nobody puts in the press release. You can separate every kilogram of NdPr in Texas and Kuantan, and if 94% of sintered magnet output is still in China, the chokepoint has simply moved one step downstream.
How Much Rare Earth Did China Export in 2026?
China exported 39,441 tons of rare earths in January–August 2026, down 11.1% year on year, according to General Administration of Customs data reported by Reuters on September 8, 2026. August shipments reached 4,735 tons — up 12.1% from July’s 4,224 tons but 18.2% below August 2025’s 5,792 tons.
For context, full-year 2025 exports hit 62,585 tons, up 12.9% and the highest since at least 2014, per the same customs series.
Monthly and Cumulative Rare Earth Exports, 2025–2026
| Period | Volume (t) | Year-on-year change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full year 2025 | 62,585 | +12.9% | China GAC (via Reuters) |
| December 2025 | 4,392 | +32% | China GAC (via Reuters) |
| January–June 2026 | 30,482.8 | −6.4% | China GAC (via Global Times) |
| June 2026 | 5,104.8 | — | China GAC (via Global Times) |
| July 2026 | 4,223.5 | — | China GAC (via Global Times) |
| January–July 2026 | 34,706.3 | −10% | China GAC (via Global Times) |
| August 2026 | 4,735 | −18.2% | China GAC (via Reuters) |
| January–August 2026 | 39,441 | −11.1% | China GAC (via Reuters) |
Volume Down, Value Up: The Rationing Signature
The same Reuters release reported that the dollar value of January–August exports rose 53.5%. Axis Intelligence Research combines the two changes:
Implied value per ton = (1 + 0.535) ÷ (1 − 0.111) − 1 = +72.7%
Fewer tons, each worth far more. The aggregate customs line cannot separate a price effect from a product-mix effect, and it would be overreach to claim it does. Either reading points the same way for buyers: each ton that clears the border now costs far more.
A note on the Reuters average. The Reuters text states a year-to-date monthly average of 4,829 tons. Dividing its own 39,441-ton total by eight gives 4,930 tons, and summing the Global Times January–July figure (34,706.3 t) with August (4,735 t) confirms 39,441. We use 4,930.
2026 run-rate estimate: at the January–August pace, Axis Intelligence Research estimates full-year 2026 exports of about 59,160 tons (39,441.3 × 12 ÷ 8), roughly 5.5% below 2025. Straight-line; a controls reinstatement on November 10 would break it.
How Many Rare Earth Magnets Does China Export?
China exported 57,392 tons of rare earth magnets in 2025, down 1.3% from 2024, according to customs data reported by Reuters. Exports to the United States totaled 5,933 tons, down 20.3% — so the US took 10.3% of China’s magnet exports last year, by Axis Intelligence Research’s calculation.
| Period | Magnet exports (t) | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,239 | −74.3% y/y, after April 2025 controls | China GAC (via S&P Global) |
| July 2025 | 5,577 | Recovery after June US/EU deals | China GAC (via Reuters) |
| December 2025 | 5,952 | Fourth-highest month of 2025 | China GAC (via Reuters) |
| Full year 2025 | 57,392 | −1.3% y/y | China GAC (via Reuters) |
| Full year 2025, to US | 5,933 | −20.3% y/y | China GAC (via Reuters) |
| July 2026 | 5,375.1 | −3.6% y/y; Jan–Jul +32.2% y/y (HS 85051110) | China GAC (via Blooming Global) |
The May 2025 collapse is the number every automotive procurement team remembers. It showed what a licence queue does to a just-in-time supply chain within six weeks.
The August 2026 magnet breakdown is due from customs on September 20. This page will update when it lands.
Sophie Winslow: Watch the unit of measurement. A tonnage line for magnets can recover while a few tons of separated dysprosium, terbium or yttrium stay scarce, and those small volumes are what a magnet line or a coating shop actually waits on. Aggregate recovery is not recovery for the plant that needs one specific oxide.
What Are China’s Rare Earth Export Controls in 2026, and When Do They Change?
Three layers of control are in play, and only one is suspended.
| Measure | Date issued | Elements / scope | Status as of Sept 16, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 18 | April 4, 2025 | Samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium (metals, oxides, alloys, compounds) | In force; general licences issued to selected exporters | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Announcements No. 55–58, 61, 62 | October 9, 2025 | Adds europium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium; equipment, technology, extraterritorial rules | Suspended until November 10, 2026 | MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 70 (reported by CIRS Group) |
| Announcement No. 72 | November 9, 2025 | Suspends US-specific clause of Announcement No. 46 (2024) on gallium, germanium, antimony, superhard materials | Suspended until November 27, 2026 | MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 |
The IEA estimates that $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China could be jeopardised if the October 2025 measures were enacted in full. That is the stake attached to November 10.
Export Controls in the Data: Yttrium to the United States
China shipped just 17 tons of yttrium to the United States between April and December 2025, versus 333 tons in the eight months before the controls — a 94.9% drop, per Chinese customs figures compiled by CSIS. Yttrium is used in thermal barrier coatings for jet engines, and CSIS reports aerospace manufacturers warning of shortages and rationing.
Sophie Winslow: The suspension paused one wave of rules and left the licensing machinery running. For any buyer of dysprosium or terbium, November 10 doesn’t change the April permit requirement. It changes whether europium, holmium and the extraterritorial 0.1% rule join it. Plan inventory for the second case and be pleasantly surprised by the first.
What Are Rare Earth Prices in 2026?
Price discovery in rare earths is split between a Chinese domestic market and a Western market increasingly anchored by government floors. Most daily spot assessments sit behind paid licences, so Axis Intelligence Research builds the price picture from public, auditable sources: USGS annual averages and company filings.
Annual Average Oxide Prices, 2021–2025 (US$/kg, FOB)
| Product | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025e | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NdPr oxide (99%) | 92 | 124 | 75 | 55 | 69 | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Neodymium oxide (99.5%) | 98 | 134 | 78 | 56 | 73 | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Praseodymium oxide (99.99%) | 93 | 128 | 76 | 56 | 74 | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Dysprosium oxide (99.5%) | 410 | 382 | 330 | 257 | 239 | USGS MCS 2026 (Heavy) |
| Terbium oxide (99.99%) | 1,340 | 2,050 | 1,300 | 812 | 1,010 | USGS MCS 2026 (Heavy) |
Terbium oxide averaged 4.2 times the price of dysprosium oxide in 2025 (1,010 ÷ 239). Both are heavy rare earths under April 2025 licensing, and USGS lists China as the source of 100% of US terbium compound imports in 2021–2024.
What Western Producers Actually Realize: NdPr in Q2 2026
MP Materials reported $94.434 million of NdPr oxide and metal revenue on 1,006 metric tons sold in Q2 2026, according to its second-quarter 2026 results. Axis Intelligence Research divides one by the other, following the company’s own KPI definition:
Realized NdPr price = $94,434,000 ÷ 1,006,000 kg = $93.87/kg
That is 36.0% above the 2025 USGS average of $69/kg, and 14.7% below the $110/kg price floor the US Department of Defense committed to in July 2025. The gap is covered by the price-protection agreement, which contributed $17.58 million of income in the quarter.
Sophie Winslow: The $110 floor is becoming the West’s reference price by default — CSIS notes the US government’s purchase commitment with Lynas Rare Earths uses the same $110/kg level. That’s useful for project finance. It also means the ex-China market has a contract-set anchor while China’s domestic market has a licence-set one. Neither is a clearing price.
How Dependent Is the United States on Chinese Rare Earths?
The United States was 67% net import reliant for rare earth compounds and metals in 2025, according to USGS, and China supplied 71% of those imports in 2021–2024. That is despite domestic compound and metal production rising to 8,900 tons in 2025 against apparent consumption of 27,000 tons.
| Indicator (United States, 2025) | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Mine production (concentrates) | 51,000 t REO | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Compounds and metals produced | 8,900 t REO | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Apparent consumption, compounds and metals | 27,000 t REO | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Net import reliance | 67% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| China share of compound/metal imports (2021–24) | 71% | USGS MCS 2026 |
| Share of China’s 2025 magnet exports going to US | 10.3% | China GAC via Reuters (Axis calc.) |
Methodology
Collection. Axis Intelligence Research assembled this dataset ahead of publication on September 16, 2026. Production, reserves, US trade and annual price series come from the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Rare Earths and Rare Earths (Heavy) chapters, fetched directly). Market-share and investment figures come from IEA publications. Chinese trade volumes come from General Administration of Customs releases as reported by Reuters, Global Times and S&P Global, cross-checked where two outlets covered the same month. Realized price data come from MP Materials’ Q2 2026 earnings release.
Axis calculations. Every derived figure appears in the CSV with axis_calculated = yes and its formula in method_note:
- Country shares of mine output: country tonnage ÷ 390,000 t.
- RECI: 0.17 × mining share + 0.50 × refining share + 0.33 × magnet share.
- Implied export value per ton: (1 + value change) ÷ (1 + volume change) − 1.
- Realized NdPr price: MP NdPr revenue ÷ NdPr sales volume.
- 2026 export run-rate: January–August volume × 12 ÷ 8.
What the numbers can and cannot tell you. China’s mine figure is an official quota. Customs aggregates mix light and heavy products, so value-per-ton shifts combine price and mix effects. The magnet share in RECI uses the latest IEA-published figure. Where sources disagreed — the Reuters monthly average — we published the arithmetic rather than the quoted number.
RECI updates when USGS, the IEA or Chinese customs publish a revised input. Historical readings are never silently overwritten; each reading carries its as-of date.
About This Dataset
Contents. 138 observations covering China and global rare earth mine production (2024–2025), reserves, supply-chain market shares, monthly and cumulative Chinese exports (2025–August 2026), magnet exports, export-control timelines, oxide price averages (2021–2025), realized NdPr pricing (Q2 2026) and the RECI reading.
Download: china-rare-earth-statistics.csv — every row carries source organization, document, URL, retrieval date, primary/secondary flag and calculation notes. Also available on Hugging Face, Kaggle and GitHub under the same filename.
License: CC BY 4.0. Reuse freely with attribution.
How to cite: Axis Intelligence Research, China Rare Earth Statistics 2026, 2026.
Cite This Page
APA Axis Intelligence Research, & Winslow, S. (2026, September 16). China rare earth statistics 2026: Production, exports, prices and global market share. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/china-rare-earth-statistics/
MLA Axis Intelligence Research, and Sophie Winslow. “China Rare Earth Statistics 2026: Production, Exports, Prices and Global Market Share.” Axis Intelligence, 16 Sept. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/china-rare-earth-statistics/.
Chicago Axis Intelligence Research, and Sophie Winslow. “China Rare Earth Statistics 2026: Production, Exports, Prices and Global Market Share.” Axis Intelligence, September 16, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/china-rare-earth-statistics/.
Rare Earth Questions Buyers, Analysts and Policymakers Are Asking
Is China’s 270,000-ton rare earth figure its real production?
No — it is China’s official production quota, as the USGS notes, and excludes undocumented output. It remains the figure used in the USGS world table, where it equals 69.2% of 2025 global mine production.
Why did China’s rare earth export value rise while volumes fell in 2026?
China’s January–August 2026 exports fell 11.1% by volume but rose 53.5% by value, per customs data. Axis Intelligence Research calculates a 72.7% increase in value per ton, reflecting higher prices and a shift in what gets licensed for export.
What happens to rare earth exports on November 10, 2026?
The one-year suspension of China’s October 2025 controls (Announcement No. 70) expires. Without an extension, controls on europium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, related equipment, technology and extraterritorial rules return. The April 2025 controls on dysprosium, terbium and yttrium continue either way.
Are dysprosium and terbium still restricted if the suspension is extended?
Yes. Samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium have required export licences since April 4, 2025. That measure was never suspended, according to USGS.
How long would it take the West to replace China’s magnet capacity?
The IEA finds that planned magnet production outside China by 2035 amounts to only about one-third of expected ex-China mine output. Axis Intelligence Research’s RECI falls only to 77.8 in a 2035 scenario where refining diversifies but magnet share does not.
Does the $110/kg NdPr floor mean Western prices are $110?
Not directly. MP Materials realized $93.87/kg on NdPr in Q2 2026, Axis Intelligence Research calculates, with Department of Defense price-protection payments covering the shortfall to $110.
Which rare earths does the United States import entirely from China?
USGS reports that 100% of US terbium, holmium and lutetium compound and metal imports came from China in 2021–2024, and the US was 100% net import reliant on heavy rare earth compounds and metals.
How much of an electric vehicle’s cost is rare earths?
Rare earths account for around 40% of permanent magnet costs but less than 1% of a vehicle’s value, according to the IEA’s 2026 critical minerals outlook — which is why supply, not price, is the automaker’s risk.