Video Marketing Statistics 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Mia Scarlett (Business & Entrepreneurship) and Alex Rivera (Consumer Tech & Streaming) | Last updated: August 27, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
U.S. digital video advertising revenue reached $78.0 billion in 2025, up 25.4% year over year — the fastest growth of any digital ad format for the second consecutive year. Axis Intelligence Research finds that video absorbed 44.0% of every incremental dollar added to the U.S. digital advertising market that year, while accounting for only 24.0% of the base.
Quick Answer
Digital video is now the second-largest U.S. digital advertising format at $78.0 billion, or 26.5% of the $294.6 billion market, per the IAB/PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report for full-year 2025. Axis Intelligence Research calculates a Video Growth Capture Score (VGCS) of 44.0 for 2025 — meaning video captured 44 cents of every new dollar. On 2025 growth rates held constant, video overtakes search as the largest format in 2029.
Key Findings
- According to the IAB/PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report, U.S. digital video advertising revenue reached $78.0 billion in 2025, growing 25.4% year over year.
- Axis Intelligence Research finds the 2025 Video Growth Capture Score reached 44.0, the highest reading in the four years the score can be computed from IAB format data.
- Axis Intelligence Research finds video captured incremental U.S. digital ad dollars at 1.83 times its share of the prior-year base — a capture ratio no other format matched in 2025.
- Nielsen’s May 2026 Gauge report placed YouTube at 13.8% of total U.S. TV watch-time, its highest recorded share and the largest of any distributor for a third consecutive month.
- Alphabet’s Q2 2026 SEC filing reports YouTube advertising revenue of $11.055 billion for the quarter, up 12.9% from $9.796 billion a year earlier.
How Much Are Advertisers Spending on Video Advertising in 2026?
The number that anchors every serious video marketing budget conversation is $78.0 billion. That is what U.S. companies spent on digital video advertising across connected TV, online video, social video and short-form formats in 2025, according to the IAB and PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report: Full Year 2025, released April 16, 2026. It is a survey-plus-public-filings measurement of revenue actually booked by companies selling U.S. digital advertising — not a forecast, and not a modelled market size.
Video was $39.5 billion in 2021. It has almost doubled in four years while the total market grew 55.6%.
U.S. digital advertising revenue by format, 2021–2025 ($ billions)
| Format | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 share | 2021–2025 CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Search | 78.3 | 84.4 | 88.8 | 102.9 | 114.2 | 38.8% | 9.9% |
| Display | 56.7 | 63.5 | 66.1 | 74.3 | 81.6 | 27.7% | 9.5% |
| Digital video | 39.5 | 47.1 | 52.1 | 62.1 | 78.0 | 26.5% | 18.5% |
| Digital audio | 4.9 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 2.9% | 14.4% |
| Other | 9.9 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 4.2% | 6.0% |
| Total | 189.3 | 209.7 | 225.0 | 258.6 | 294.6 | 100% | 11.7% |
Source: IAB/PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2025 (format revenues and shares). CAGR calculated by Axis Intelligence Research from the same table. Annual totals may not sum exactly due to IAB rounding.
Video’s share of the U.S. digital ad market moved from 20.9% in 2021 to 26.5% in 2025. Display went the other way, from 30.0% to 27.7%. Search still leads at 38.8%, but its 2025 growth rate of 11.0% was its slowest in the five-year window and well down from 15.9% in 2024.
Mia Scarlett notes: Share tables flatter whoever is biggest, which is why they get quoted and why they mislead. Search still owns the largest column and will for several more years. But a format that grew 25.4% against a market growing 13.9% is not gaining share slowly — it is being handed the growth. The interesting question for a media plan is not what the pie looks like today. It is who is being fed.
Source: Axis Intelligence Research — CC BY 4.0
What Is the Video Growth Capture Score (VGCS)?
Share-of-market tells you where budget already sits. It says nothing about where new budget is going. So Axis Intelligence Research built a score that isolates exactly that.
VGCS (Video Growth Capture Score) measures the share of a market’s year-over-year revenue increase that a single format absorbs.
The formula
VGCS_y = (Video_y − Video_y−1) ÷ (Total_y − Total_y−1) × 100
Where Video and Total are U.S. digital advertising revenues for the stated calendar year, taken from the IAB/PwC format table. Both numerator and denominator are drawn from the same table so the denominator is internally consistent; using the report’s separately stated headline totals instead produces 44.1 for 2025, a difference of one-tenth of a point.
A companion reading places the result in context:
Capture Ratio = VGCS_y ÷ (Video_y−1 ÷ Total_y−1)
A Capture Ratio of 1.00 means a format is taking new dollars in exact proportion to its existing size. Above 1.00 means it is pulling budget away from other formats. Below 1.00 means it is being outbid for growth.
The 2026 edition of the score uses the 2021 base year, the earliest year the IAB report’s current five-year format table supports. Readings are computed once per year, when the IAB/PwC full-year report publishes.
Video Growth Capture Score, 2022–2025
| Year | Video increase ($bn) | Total market increase ($bn) | VGCS | Video’s prior-year share | Capture Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.6 | 20.4 | 37.3 | 20.9% | 1.79 |
| 2023 | 5.0 | 15.3 | 32.7 | 22.5% | 1.45 |
| 2024 | 10.0 | 33.6 | 29.8 | 23.2% | 1.29 |
| 2025 | 15.9 | 36.1 | 44.0 | 24.0% | 1.83 |
Source: Axis Intelligence Research calculation from IAB/PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2025 format table. As of December 31, 2025.
Three readings matter here.
The first is 44.0. In a year when U.S. digital advertising added $36.1 billion, video took $15.9 billion of it. Search — a format nearly 50% larger — took $11.4 billion.
The second is the shape of the series. VGCS fell for three straight years, from 37.3 in 2022 to 29.8 in 2024, then jumped 14.2 points in a single year. The 2024 trough coincided with an election-and-Olympics cycle that pushed unusual volume into search and social display; 2025 had neither, and video’s capture snapped back above its 2022 level.
The third is the Capture Ratio of 1.83. Video is not simply growing because the market is growing. It is winning incremental budget at nearly twice the rate its installed base would predict — the arithmetic signature of a format taking money off other line items rather than riding a rising tide.
Alex Rivera notes: Marketers keep asking whether video is worth the production cost when a static asset converts fine. The VGCS series is the answer their competitors already gave. Somebody moved that $15.9 billion, and they moved it out of somewhere else. Attribution debates will run for another decade. Budget migration is already settled.
When Will Video Overtake Search as the Largest U.S. Digital Ad Format?
This is the projection nobody publishes, because it requires committing to an assumption in public. Axis Intelligence Research will commit to one, and label it clearly.
Assumption: each format continues at its exact 2025 growth rate — video at 25.4%, search at 11.0% — with no acceleration, deceleration, cyclical event or definitional change. This is a scenario, not a forecast. It is useful precisely because it is mechanical and anyone can rerun it.
Constant-growth scenario, video vs. search ($ billions)
| Year | Digital video | Search | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 (actual) | 78.0 | 114.2 | 36.2 |
| 2026 | 97.8 | 126.8 | 29.0 |
| 2027 | 122.7 | 140.7 | 18.0 |
| 2028 | 153.8 | 156.2 | 2.4 |
| 2029 | 192.9 | 173.4 | −19.5 |
Source: Axis Intelligence Research scenario projection. Base values and growth rates from IAB/PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2025. As of December 31, 2025.
Under those assumptions the two lines cross 3.1 years after the close of 2025, making 2029 the first full year in which digital video would be the largest U.S. digital advertising format — displacing a category search has led since the IAB began measuring formats.
The near-miss in 2028 is the part worth watching. A gap of $2.4 billion on a combined base of $310 billion is inside the noise of a single strong or weak quarter. Two things would delay the crossover: search reaccelerating as AI-driven results get monetized, or a cyclical year pulling spend back into performance search. Two things would pull it forward: connected TV inventory expanding faster than expected, or continued migration of retail and commerce budgets into shoppable video.
Mia Scarlett notes: I distrust projections that quietly bake in optimism, so this one has none — it just runs 2025 forward without editing. That is also its weakness. Few formats hold a growth rate above 25% for four consecutive years without something breaking. Treat 2029 as the earliest plausible crossover under current conditions, and treat any source claiming a precise date without publishing its assumptions as guessing.
Which Platforms Actually Own Video Attention in 2026?
Video ad spend is one half of the picture. The other half is where the watching happens — and in the U.S., watching has decisively moved.
U.S. TV watch-time by category and distributor, May 2026
| Category or distributor | Share of total TV watch-time | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Streaming (all) | 48.6% | Nielsen, The Gauge, May 2026 |
| Cable | 20.4% | Nielsen, The Gauge, May 2026 |
| Broadcast | 19.2% | Nielsen, The Gauge, May 2026 |
| YouTube | 13.8% | Nielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026 |
| Disney | 10.0% | Nielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026 |
| NBCU + Versant | 8.4% | Nielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026 |
| Netflix | 8.0% | Nielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026 |
| Prime Video | 4.5% | Nielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026 |
| The Roku Channel | 3.1% | Nielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026 |
Source: Nielsen, “Streaming Embarks on Annual Summer Ascent in Nielsen’s May 2026 Gauge Reports,” July 28, 2026. The Gauge measures total TV viewing on television screens, including both ad-supported and non-ad-supported viewing.
Streaming crossed 48.6% of total TV watch-time in May 2026, a record in Nielsen’s series, while broadcast and cable sat at 19.2% and 20.4%. Axis Intelligence Research finds that YouTube alone accounted for 28.4% of all U.S. streaming watch-time in May 2026 — its 13.8% share divided by streaming’s 48.6% — a concentration no other single distributor approaches.
YouTube advertising revenue, most recent reported quarters
| Period | YouTube ad revenue | Year-over-year change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $9.796bn | — | Alphabet 8-K, SEC EDGAR |
| Q4 2025 | $11.383bn | +8.7% | Alphabet 8-K, SEC EDGAR |
| Q2 2026 | $11.055bn | +12.9% | Alphabet 8-K, SEC EDGAR |
Source: Alphabet Inc. Q2 2026 Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, filed July 22, 2026 and Alphabet Inc. Q4 2025 Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, filed February 4, 2026.
Alphabet also disclosed in its Q4 2025 release that YouTube’s annual revenue across advertising and subscriptions surpassed $60 billion for full-year 2025.
Why Axis Intelligence Research will not divide one of these numbers by the other
The obvious move is to put YouTube’s ad revenue over U.S. digital video ad revenue and publish a market share. Several sites do. The number is meaningless, and here is why: Alphabet reports YouTube advertising revenue globally, while the IAB/PwC figure covers U.S. revenue only. Alphabet does not break YouTube out by geography. Dividing a worldwide numerator by a domestic denominator produces a share that overstates YouTube’s U.S. position by an unknown and unstated margin.
The two figures are published side by side above and left unmerged. Any source presenting a single YouTube share of U.S. video ad spend is either using a modelled estimate — which should be labelled as one — or has combined incompatible measurements.
Alex Rivera notes: The Gauge only counts television screens. YouTube’s phone and tablet viewing is not in that 13.8%, which means the platform’s true share of video attention is higher than the chart shows, not lower. For a media buyer that cuts both ways: the reach is real, but so is the fact that a connected TV impression and a muted phone impression are being bought under the same word.
How Much of the U.S. Audience Can Video Reach?
Reach is the ceiling on everything else in a video plan, and it is unusually well measured.
The Pew Research Center’s Americans’ Social Media Use 2025 survey, fielded February 5 to June 18, 2025 among 5,022 U.S. adults, found that 84% of U.S. adults use YouTube — the highest adoption of any online platform measured, ahead of Facebook at 71% and Instagram at 50%. Pew’s companion survey of 5,123 adults conducted February 24 to March 2, 2025 found 48% of U.S. adults use YouTube daily.
| Platform | % of U.S. adults who use it | Source |
|---|---|---|
| YouTube | 84% | Pew Research Center, 2025 |
| 71% | Pew Research Center, 2025 | |
| 50% | Pew Research Center, 2025 | |
| TikTok | 37% | Pew Research Center, 2025 |
| 26% | Pew Research Center, 2025 |
Source: Pew Research Center, Americans’ Social Media Use 2025, published November 20, 2025. Survey of 5,022 U.S. adults, February 5–June 18, 2025.
Two implications for anyone building a video plan. First, YouTube is the only video destination in the U.S. with majority usage in every adult age group Pew measures, which makes it the default reach buy rather than a targeting buy. Second, the gap between 84% ever-use and 48% daily use is the gap between reach and frequency — and frequency is where video budgets are actually consumed. Our social media statistics hub tracks the platform-level engagement figures behind that split, and the TikTok data report covers where short-form time is going.
Where Is Video Budget Moving Next: Creators, Podcasts and Games?
The three fastest-moving destinations for video money in 2026 are not video platforms in the traditional sense.
Creator advertising. The IAB reports U.S. creator advertising spend of $37 billion in 2025, projected to reach $44 billion in 2026 — growth the IAB characterises as roughly twice the rate of the broader advertising market. This is the budget line that used to be called campaign-based influencer marketing and is now managed as always-on media; our influencer marketing statistics report breaks down the platform and rate-card side of that spend.
Video podcasts. The IAB’s 2025 report notes that roughly 71% of U.S. podcast creators now produce video versions of their shows, a figure originating with Sounds Profitable’s 2025 creator study. Podcast advertising revenue itself reached $2.9 billion in 2025, up 17.6% — but that number still reflects the traditional audio-only definition, which means a growing share of video podcast inventory is being counted in the video and social lines instead.
In-game video. Advertising revenue across video games and esports grew 22.0% in 2025, accelerating from 8.7% in 2024, per PwC’s Entertainment and Media Outlook data published in the IAB report — attributed to expanded in-game formats and advertiser demand for high-attention environments.
And the counterweight, from the same table: TV advertising revenue fell 13.4% in 2025, reversing 6.6% growth the year before.
| Channel | 2025 revenue growth | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Video games and esports | +22.0% | PwC E&M Outlook via IAB, FY2025 |
| Internet advertising (total) | +13.9% | IAB/PwC, FY2025 |
| Business-to-business | +3.1% | PwC E&M Outlook via IAB, FY2025 |
| Out-of-home | +2.2% | PwC E&M Outlook via IAB, FY2025 |
| Music, radio and podcast | +1.3% | PwC E&M Outlook via IAB, FY2025 |
| Newspaper and consumer magazine | −3.5% | PwC E&M Outlook via IAB, FY2025 |
| Television advertising | −13.4% | PwC E&M Outlook via IAB, FY2025 |
Source: IAB/PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2025, “Advertising revenues and growth, by media.” Non-internet figures sourced by IAB from PwC’s Entertainment and Media Outlook. 2025 was a non-cyclical year without a U.S. presidential election or Summer Olympics.
Mia Scarlett notes: Put the two rows next to each other and the story stops being about video and starts being about accounting. Television advertising dropped 13.4% while digital video rose 25.4% — a 38.8-point spread in a single year. Some of that is a genuine budget shift. Some of it is the same commercial being reclassified when it plays inside a connected TV app instead of a linear break. Anyone modelling total video investment rather than digital video revenue needs to know which of those two things they are counting, because the industry’s own reporting lines no longer agree.
What Compliance Rules Now Apply to Video Testimonials and Creator Ads?
Video marketing carries a regulatory exposure that display advertising largely does not, because video is where testimonials, demonstrations and creator endorsements live.
The Federal Trade Commission’s Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials (16 CFR Part 465) took effect on October 21, 2024. Unlike the FTC’s Endorsement Guides, which are guidance, the Rule authorises courts to impose civil penalties for knowing violations. Its provisions reach directly into standard video marketing practice:
- Testimonials from people who do not exist, or who never used the product, are prohibited — a provision the FTC explicitly framed as covering AI-generated material when it announced the final rule on August 14, 2024.
- Incentives conditioned on a specific sentiment are prohibited, whether stated or implied.
- Buying or selling fake indicators of social media influence — bot-generated followers or views — is prohibited where the buyer knew or should have known.
- Employee and insider testimonials require clear disclosure of the connection.
For teams running creator video at scale, the operational consequence is that the compliance surface now scales with the number of creators, not the number of campaigns. That is a different cost curve than most 2024-era creator budgets were built on.
Methodology
Collection. Every figure in this report was retrieved from a primary source document during the production session on August 27, 2026, and logged with its URL and retrieval date in the accompanying CSV. Sources used: the IAB/PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report Full Year 2025 (published April 16, 2026); Alphabet Inc. Forms 8-K Exhibit 99.1 filed February 4, 2026 and July 22, 2026 via SEC EDGAR; Nielsen’s The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge reports for May 2026 (published July 28, 2026); the Pew Research Center’s Americans’ Social Media Use 2025 (published November 20, 2025); and Federal Trade Commission rule documentation for 16 CFR Part 465.
Video Growth Capture Score. VGCS_y = (Video_y − Video_y−1) ÷ (Total_y − Total_y−1) × 100, with Video and Total taken from the IAB/PwC five-year format revenue table. The denominator is the sum of the five reported format revenues for each year, which keeps numerator and denominator on a single consistent basis. Substituting the report’s separately stated headline annual totals changes the 2025 reading from 44.0 to 44.1. Capture Ratio = VGCS_y ÷ (Video_y−1 ÷ Total_y−1). Base year 2021. Readings are annual, computed when the IAB/PwC full-year report publishes. All four readings were computed twice — once in floating point and once using exact rational arithmetic — with identical results.
Crossover scenario. Video and search revenues were projected forward from their 2025 values at their 2025 year-over-year growth rates (25.4% and 11.0%), held constant. The crossover point was solved analytically and confirmed by bisection: 3.125 years after the close of 2025. This is a stated-assumption scenario and is labelled as such wherever it appears.
Growth rates. Where the IAB report states a growth rate directly (video 25.4%, search 11.0%, display 9.8%, total 13.9%), the report’s figure is used. Rates computed from the rounded format table differ by up to 0.2 points; the report’s stated figures take precedence.
Scope. IAB/PwC figures measure U.S. revenue only. Alphabet’s YouTube figures are global. Nielsen’s Gauge measures viewing on television screens in the United States and excludes mobile and desktop viewing. Pew figures are self-reported platform use among U.S. adults. These bases are not interchangeable, and this report does not combine them into single ratios except where both inputs share a base — the YouTube share of streaming watch-time calculation uses two Nielsen figures from the same May 2026 measurement period.
About This Dataset
The accompanying CSV, video-marketing-statistics.csv, is the fact table behind this report. Every number in the prose above exists as a row, carrying its value, unit, as-of date, geography, segment, source organisation, source document, source URL, retrieval date, whether the source is primary, whether the value was calculated by Axis Intelligence Research, and for calculated rows the formula used.
Coverage: U.S. digital advertising revenue by format 2021–2025; Video Growth Capture Score readings 2022–2025; the video-versus-search crossover scenario 2026–2029; U.S. TV watch-time shares by category and distributor for May 2026; YouTube quarterly advertising revenue; U.S. adult platform adoption; and 2025 revenue growth by advertising medium.
License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). Free to reuse, republish and redistribute, including commercially, with attribution.
Distribution: the dataset is published to Hugging Face, Kaggle and GitHub alongside this page.
How to Cite This Report
APA: Axis Intelligence Research, Scarlett, M., & Rivera, A. (2026, August 27). Video marketing statistics 2026: Ad spend, growth rates and platform data. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/video-marketing-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research, Mia Scarlett, and Alex Rivera. “Video Marketing Statistics 2026: Ad Spend, Growth Rates and Platform Data.” Axis Intelligence, 27 Aug. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/video-marketing-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research, Mia Scarlett, and Alex Rivera. “Video Marketing Statistics 2026: Ad Spend, Growth Rates and Platform Data.” Axis Intelligence, August 27, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/video-marketing-statistics/.
If you use the Video Growth Capture Score, cite it as: Video Growth Capture Score (VGCS), Axis Intelligence Research, 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is digital video ad revenue the same thing as CTV ad spend?
No. The IAB/PwC $78.0 billion figure for 2025 covers connected TV and over-the-top video, online video, social video and short-form video together as one format. CTV is a subset. The IAB’s own survey definition treats CTV/OTT as television-like internet-delivered content served through a smart TV or streaming device, including ad-supported subscription services and virtual MVPDs, and estimates that under 20% of that inventory may be delivered in mobile or desktop environments. Any figure presented as “CTV ad spend” that matches the total digital video number is mislabelled.
Why does video ad spend growth look different across sources?
Because the sources are measuring different things. The IAB/PwC report measures revenue booked by companies selling U.S. digital advertising, reported to PwC directly plus public filings. Forecasting firms publish modelled projections of buyer spend, which include agency fees and non-reporting sellers and cover different geographies. A revenue measurement and a spend forecast will never reconcile, and neither is wrong — but quoting one under the other’s label is.
Does a rising Video Growth Capture Score mean CPMs are rising?
Not directly. VGCS measures where incremental revenue lands, not what it buys. Revenue can rise because inventory expanded, because pricing rose, or both. The 2025 reading of 44.0 tells you $15.9 billion in new spend went to video; it does not tell you whether an advertiser paid more per thousand impressions than in 2024. Rate-card movement has to be measured separately, against actual booked pricing.
If YouTube has 13.8% of TV watch-time, what share of video ad spend does it get?
Unknown from public data, and Axis Intelligence Research declines to publish a figure. Alphabet reports YouTube advertising revenue worldwide without a geographic split; the IAB video number is U.S. only. Dividing one by the other produces a share with an unquantifiable error. Any published YouTube share of U.S. video ad spend is a model, and should be read as one.
Does the Nielsen Gauge undercount YouTube because it excludes phones?
It excludes non-television viewing entirely, for every platform. The practical effect is asymmetric: platforms with heavy mobile consumption — YouTube most of all — have more viewing outside the measurement than subscription streamers whose usage skews to the living room. So 13.8% should be read as YouTube’s share of television-screen viewing, and as a floor rather than a ceiling on its total share of video attention.
Is short-form video counted separately in these figures?
No. Short-form sits inside the IAB’s digital video format alongside CTV, online video and social video, with no separate line. The one adjacent series the report does isolate is social media advertising revenue, which reached $117.7 billion in 2025 — up 32.6% — but that figure spans all social ad formats, not only video, and overlaps with the video line rather than sitting beside it. There is no published U.S. revenue figure that isolates short-form video alone.
Are video podcast ads counted as video or as audio?
Currently as audio, and the IAB flags this as a definitional problem in its own report. The $2.9 billion podcast advertising figure for 2025 reflects the traditional audio-only definition, even though roughly 71% of U.S. podcast creators now produce video versions distributed across streaming platforms. Revenue from those video versions increasingly lands in the video and social lines. The category boundary is moving faster than the measurement.
What changed legally for brands running creator video in the U.S.?
The FTC’s Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials became effective October 21, 2024, giving the Commission civil penalty authority it did not previously have for testimonial and endorsement violations. It prohibits fabricated testimonials including AI-generated ones, sentiment-conditioned incentives, and trading in fake engagement metrics, and requires disclosure of insider connections. For video specifically, the exposure scales with creator count rather than campaign count.
Will digital video actually overtake search in 2029?
Only if both formats hold their 2025 growth rates exactly, which is why Axis Intelligence Research publishes the crossover as a scenario with stated assumptions rather than a forecast. Under those assumptions the lines cross 3.1 years after the close of 2025. The 2028 gap of $2.4 billion is small enough that a single strong quarter on either side moves the date. Search reaccelerating on AI-monetised results is the most plausible delay; faster CTV inventory expansion is the most plausible acceleration.
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