AI PC Statistics 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Sarah Mitchell | Last updated: September 28, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
According to Axis Intelligence Research, the cheapest PC that qualifies as a Copilot+ AI PC must carry 4.0 times the RAM and 4.0 times the storage of a Windows 11 minimum machine, and at Gartner’s end-2026 memory prices that floor costs 9.2 times as much in memory terms. In 2026, the NPU stopped being the bottleneck. Memory took its place.
Quick Answer: How Many AI PCs Will Ship in 2026?
Gartner’s pre-shortage forecast called for 143.1 million AI PC shipments in 2026, or 54.7% of the market. Gartner has since pushed 50% AI PC penetration out to 2028. Axis Intelligence Research calculates that this caps 2026 AI PC shipments below 121.06 million units, a shortfall of at least 22.06 million units (15.4%) against the original forecast.
Key Findings
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, the AI PC Memory Floor Index (AMFI) reads 9.2 for 2026: a Copilot+ PC’s minimum 16 GB of RAM and 256 GB of storage, priced at Gartner’s projected 130% DRAM and SSD surge, costs 9.2 times the memory of a 2025-priced Windows 11 minimum PC.
- Axis Intelligence Research estimates 2026 AI PC shipments will fall at least 22.06 million units short of Gartner’s August 2025 forecast of 143.1 million, because Gartner now places 50% AI PC penetration in 2028 rather than 2026.
- Every one of the 13 AMD Ryzen AI 400 and PRO 400 processors clears Microsoft’s 40 TOPS Copilot+ threshold, with the lowest SKU at 50 TOPS, 1.25 times the floor, per AMD’s January 2026 specifications.
- Gartner projects memory will peak at 23% of a PC’s bill of materials in 2026, up from 16% in 2025, a 43.8% relative increase that Axis Intelligence Research identifies as the main constraint on AI PC adoption this year.
- IDC counted 68.2 million PC shipments in Q2 2026 while Omdia counted 65.7 million, a 2.5 million unit gap that Axis Intelligence Research publishes unreconciled because the two trackers define the market differently.
What Counts as an AI PC in 2026?
There is no single definition, and that ambiguity drives most of the confusion in AI PC statistics. Three tiers matter in 2026, and all three are set by Microsoft rather than by analysts.
The entry tier is an NPU of 10 or more TOPS, the level Microsoft specifies for core Windows Studio Effects such as background blur and eye contact. Many analyst counts of “AI-capable” PCs start here.
The second tier is the Copilot+ PC. Microsoft requires an NPU “capable of performing 40+ TOPS,” 16 GB of DDR5 or LPDDR5 memory, and 256 GB of SSD or UFS storage. Microsoft’s own page now adds a line most coverage misses: devices with a 40+ TOPS NPU but fewer than 16 GB of RAM are not Copilot+ PCs. The silicon qualifies. The memory configuration does not.
The third tier is marketing, not specification. Vendors increasingly quote “platform TOPS” that add CPU and GPU throughput to the NPU. Those numbers are not what Microsoft certifies against.
AI PC Tiers at a Glance
| Tier | NPU requirement | Minimum RAM | Minimum storage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Windows 11 baseline | None | 4 GB | 64 GB | Microsoft Windows 11 Specifications |
| NPU-assisted (Studio Effects) | 10+ TOPS | 4 GB | 64 GB | Microsoft Windows 11 Specifications |
| Copilot+ PC | 40+ TOPS | 16 GB | 256 GB | Microsoft Windows 11 Specifications |
Sarah Mitchell, AI and ML: The 40 TOPS line gets all the attention, and it is the wrong line to watch. TOPS ratings are peak INT8 throughput under ideal conditions; AMD’s own footnote says as much. The number that decides whether a laptop ships as a Copilot+ PC is the 16 GB, and in 2026 that is the expensive part of the machine.
How Many AI PCs Ship Each Year? Gartner’s Forecast Before and After the Memory Shock
Gartner’s August 2025 forecast is still the most-quoted AI PC projection online, and it predates the memory shortage. Gartner projected AI PC shipments of 38.1 million in 2024, 77.8 million in 2025 and 143.1 million in 2026.
| Year | AI PC share of total PC market | AI laptop share of laptops | AI desktop share of desktops | AI PC units (thousands) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15.6% | 19.4% | 3.8% | 38,145 | Gartner, Aug 2025 |
| 2025 (forecast) | 31.0% | 35.7% | 16.4% | 77,792 | Gartner, Aug 2025 |
| 2026 (forecast) | 54.7% | 58.7% | 42.1% | 143,113 | Gartner, Aug 2025 |
The table implies a 3.75x unit multiple between 2024 and 2026. According to Axis Intelligence Research’s back-calculation, it also implied a 2026 PC market of 261.63 million units (143,113 thousand divided by 0.547).
Six months later the ground moved. Gartner’s February 2026 memory forecast projected worldwide PC shipments to fall 10.4% in 2026 and stated that rising AI PC prices “will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028.”
What Does the 2028 Delay Mean for 2026 AI PC Shipments?
Gartner has not republished a 2026 AI PC unit number. Axis Intelligence Research does not invent one. What the two Gartner releases allow is a hard ceiling:
- Gartner’s preliminary 2025 total was 270,218 thousand units.
- 270,218 × (1 − 0.104) = 242.12 million implied 2026 PC shipments.
- With penetration below 50% until 2028, AI PCs in 2026 stay under 0.50 × 242.12 = 121.06 million units.
- 143.11 − 121.06 = a shortfall of at least 22.06 million units, or 15.4% of the original forecast.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, the base itself shrank by 19.52 million units between the two Gartner views (261.63 million to 242.12 million). Both inputs come from the same firm, so the calculation does not mix methodologies.
One figure requires a warning label. Applying Gartner’s 31% share forecast for 2025 to its actual 2025 base gives an implied 83.77 million AI PCs. That mixes a forecast share with an observed total, so Axis Intelligence Research reports it as an upper-range implication, not a count.
Sarah Mitchell: The 54.7% figure is still being cited in 2026 as if it were current. It was a pre-shortage forecast. Anyone quoting it after February 2026 without the 2028 caveat is quoting a world that no longer exists.
The AI PC Memory Floor Index (AMFI): Why 16 GB Became the Real Barrier
The AI PC Memory Floor Index (AMFI) is an original Axis Intelligence Research metric. It measures how much more memory-driven cost the cheapest qualifying Copilot+ configuration carries than a Windows 11 minimum PC, once memory prices move.
Formula: AMFI = (Copilot+ minimum RAM ÷ Windows 11 minimum RAM) × (1 + projected DRAM and SSD price change)
Inputs: 16 GB ÷ 4 GB = 4.0. Storage produces the identical ratio: 256 GB ÷ 64 GB = 4.0. Gartner’s projected combined DRAM and SSD price increase by end-2026 is 130%, so the price multiplier is 2.30.
Reading: AMFI = 4.0 × 2.30 = 9.2
AMFI Components
| Component | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Copilot+ minimum RAM | 16 GB | Microsoft |
| Windows 11 minimum RAM | 4 GB | Microsoft |
| Copilot+ minimum storage | 256 GB | Microsoft |
| Windows 11 minimum storage | 64 GB | Microsoft |
| Memory content multiple (RAM and storage) | 4.0 | Axis Intelligence Research calculation |
| DRAM and SSD price change, end-2026 vs 2025 | +130% | Gartner, Feb 2026 |
| AMFI (2026) | 9.2 | Axis Intelligence Research |
How to read it: at constant 2025 prices, the Copilot+ memory floor is a 4.0x multiple. The 2026 price surge more than doubles that burden. The index measures relative memory content cost, not the retail price of a laptop, because RAM and storage are one input among many.
The supporting evidence runs in the same direction. Gartner expects memory to peak at 23% of PC bill of materials, up from 16% in 2025, a rise of 7 percentage points. Gartner also expects PC prices to rise 17% and the sub-$500 entry-level segment to disappear by 2028. Omdia reported in July 2026 that prices across comparable product lines had risen roughly 20% to 40% year over year.
Sarah Mitchell: This is the part of the AI PC story that benchmark charts never show. The feature list for a Copilot+ PC is defined by the NPU, but the price is defined by the memory spec Microsoft attached to it. When DRAM is being pulled toward AI data center buildouts, the 16 GB floor becomes the tax.
Which AI PC Chips Have the Most NPU TOPS?
On silicon alone, the 40 TOPS threshold is no longer hard to clear. According to Axis Intelligence Research, the useful comparison is headroom, so we compute an NPU Headroom Ratio for each vendor’s flagship: rated NPU TOPS divided by the 40 TOPS Copilot+ floor.
| Platform | Flagship NPU TOPS | Headroom vs 40 TOPS floor | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualcomm Snapdragon X2 Elite | 80 | 2.0x | Qualcomm, Sept 2025 |
| AMD Ryzen AI 9 HX 475 | 60 | 1.5x | AMD, Jan 2026 |
| Intel Core Ultra Series 3 | 50 | 1.25x | Intel, Jan 2026 |
| AMD Ryzen AI 400, lowest SKU | 50 | 1.25x | AMD, Jan 2026 |
Qualcomm rates the Snapdragon X2 Elite NPU at 80 TOPS. AMD’s CES 2026 specification table lists 13 Ryzen AI 400 and PRO 400 SKUs between 50 and 60 NPU TOPS, which according to Axis Intelligence Research averages 52.3 TOPS. Intel’s Core Ultra Series 3 tops out at 50 NPU TOPS and powers more than 200 PC designs. For more on AMD’s client business behind these chips, see our AMD statistics.
Apple is absent from the table on purpose. Axis Intelligence Research found no Apple primary source rating the M5 Neural Engine in TOPS, and the comparison is declined rather than estimated. Our Apple M5 technical analysis covers what Apple does disclose.
Sarah Mitchell: TOPS is a peak number, and peak numbers age badly. Two NPUs with the same rating can run a quantized small language model at very different speeds depending on memory bandwidth and the runtime. Treat headroom as a floor-clearance check, not a performance ranking.
Are Enterprises Buying AI PCs for AI, or for Windows 11?
The honest answer from the primary data is: mostly for the fleet refresh. Windows 10 support ended on October 14, 2025. Gartner’s January 2026 release said “most AI PC features, such as local inference, have yet to deliver significant productivity gains compared to cloud-based AI solutions,” and that many organizations were upgrading “to future-proof their fleets.”
The software side is moving faster than the usage side. Gartner expects 40% of software vendors to prioritize AI capabilities running directly on PCs by the end of 2026, up from 2% in 2024. In business AI laptops, Gartner forecast x86 on Windows at 71% of the 2025 market and Arm at 24%.
AI PC Adoption in the United States
Omdia research, as reported by trade press, put AI-capable PCs at 44% of US shipments in Q1 2026, with large enterprises procuring higher-cost AI-capable machines. The same research recorded an 18.7% year-over-year drop in US shipments of PCs priced under $500 and a full-year 2026 US forecast of minus 14.4%. These figures come from Omdia’s research relayed by a secondary outlet; the Axis dataset flags them as non-primary.
Refresh Delays in the Channel
Omdia’s July 2026 release reported that 60% of channel partners were experiencing refresh delays or cancellations, with 6% expecting outright cancellations. Gartner separately expects PC lifetimes to lengthen by 15% for business buyers and 20% for consumers by the end of 2026.
Sarah Mitchell: A longer PC lifetime is an AI PC headwind that compounds. Every business laptop kept a fifth longer is a Copilot+ purchase deferred, and the installed base of NPU-free machines ages in place. For the broader picture of how enterprises are using generative AI, see our enterprise generative AI analysis.
How Is the Memory Shortage Changing PC Shipments in 2026?
The total market sets the ceiling for AI PC volume. Q2 2026 was the first quarter to show the shortage directly in the trackers.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Worldwide PC shipments, Q2 2026 | 68.2M (−4.9% YoY) | IDC |
| Worldwide PC shipments, Q2 2026 | 65.7M (−3.6% YoY) | Omdia |
| Notebook shipments, Q2 2026 | 51.7M | Omdia |
| Desktop shipments, Q2 2026 | 13.9M | Omdia |
| Worldwide PC shipments, FY2025 | 270.2M (+9.1%) | Gartner |
| Worldwide PC shipments, Q4 2025 | 71.5M | Gartner |
| Worldwide PC shipments, 2026 forecast change | −10.4% | Gartner |
IDC described Q2 2026 as the first decline after nine straight quarters of growth and said it does not expect the memory shortage to ease until early 2028. IDC’s own figures are cited here from its official announcement and are not linked, because IDC’s press listing no longer surfaces the release.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, notebooks were 78.7% of Omdia’s Q2 count. That matters for AI PC math because Gartner’s forecast showed AI penetration running 16.6 percentage points higher in laptops than desktops for 2026. The laptop-heavy mix is where the NPU transition is concentrated, and also where soldered memory makes the 16 GB decision permanent at purchase. Our laptop sales statistics track the price and volume side of that shift, and our PC market share statistics cover vendor rankings.
Methodology
Collection. Axis Intelligence Research fetched every figure in this article from its originating document during production on September 27, 2026: Gartner newsroom releases dated August 28, 2025, January 20, 2026 and February 26, 2026; Microsoft’s Windows 11 specifications page; AMD, Intel and Qualcomm product announcements; Omdia’s July 9, 2026 release; and IDC’s official July 8, 2026 announcement. Three US figures from Omdia were available only through a trade-press report and are flagged is_primary = no.
Formulas. AMFI = (16 ÷ 4) × (1 + 1.30) = 9.2. Implied 2026 shipments = 270,218k × (1 − 0.104) = 242.12M. AI PC ceiling = 0.50 × 242.12M = 121.06M. Shortfall = 143.11M − 121.06M = 22.06M. NPU Headroom Ratio = rated NPU TOPS ÷ 40. All arithmetic was run in Python and each result is a CSV row with its method note.
Scope. AMFI measures relative memory content cost at the Copilot+ floor. It does not model retail laptop prices, vendor contract pricing, or configurations above the minimum. The 130% input is Gartner’s combined DRAM and SSD projection applied to both RAM and storage, which is appropriate because the content multiple is 4.0 for each. The AI PC ceiling is a boundary derived from Gartner’s stated 2028 timing, not a point forecast. IDC and Omdia quarterly totals are shown side by side and not averaged, because their market definitions differ.
Declined calculations. Three calculations are published as retracted CSV rows: a 2026 AI PC figure of 133 million found in secondary coverage with no Gartner primary source; Apple M5 NPU TOPS, for which no Apple primary figure was located; and a point estimate of 2026 AI PC share on the post-shortage base, which Gartner has not published.
About This Dataset
File: ai-pc-statistics-2026.csv, 79 rows, one observation per row, with source_org, source_document, source_url, retrieved_date, is_primary, axis_calculated and method_note on every row.
License: CC BY 4.0. Reuse freely with attribution to Axis Intelligence Research.
Also available on: Hugging Face, Kaggle and GitHub.
Cite This Research
APA: Axis Intelligence Research, & Mitchell, S. (2026, September 28). AI PC statistics 2026: Shipments, NPU TOPS and the memory floor. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/ai-pc-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research, and Sarah Mitchell. “AI PC Statistics 2026: Shipments, NPU TOPS and the Memory Floor.” Axis Intelligence, 28 Sept. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/ai-pc-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research, and Sarah Mitchell. “AI PC Statistics 2026: Shipments, NPU TOPS and the Memory Floor.” Axis Intelligence, September 28, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/ai-pc-statistics/.
AI PC FAQ
Is 16 GB of RAM required for an AI PC?
For a Copilot+ PC, yes. Microsoft requires 16 GB of DDR5 or LPDDR5 memory alongside a 40+ TOPS NPU and 256 GB of storage, and states that devices with a qualifying NPU but less than 16 GB are not Copilot+ PCs. Lighter NPU features such as Windows Studio Effects run on NPUs of 10+ TOPS without that memory floor.
How many TOPS does an NPU need for Copilot+ features?
At least 40 TOPS on the NPU itself, per Microsoft. Combined “platform TOPS” figures that add CPU and GPU throughput do not count toward the requirement. In 2026, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X2 Elite is rated at 80 NPU TOPS, AMD’s Ryzen AI 400 series at 50 to 60, and Intel’s Core Ultra Series 3 at up to 50.
Why are AI PCs more expensive in 2026?
Mostly because of memory. Gartner projects combined DRAM and SSD prices to rise 130% by end-2026 and memory to reach 23% of PC bill of materials. Axis Intelligence Research’s AI PC Memory Floor Index reads 9.2, meaning the Copilot+ minimum memory configuration costs 9.2 times a 2025-priced Windows 11 minimum PC in memory terms.
Will AI PCs be half of all PCs sold in 2026?
Not according to Gartner’s latest view. Gartner’s August 2025 forecast put AI PCs at 54.7% of 2026 shipments, but its February 2026 update delayed 50% penetration to 2028. According to Axis Intelligence Research, this caps 2026 AI PC shipments below 121.06 million units.
Does an existing Windows 11 laptop become an AI PC with a software update?
No. Copilot+ status depends on hardware: a qualifying NPU, 16 GB of RAM and 256 GB of storage. Any Windows 11 PC can use the cloud-based Copilot app, but on-device Copilot+ features such as improved Windows search and Click to Do require Copilot+ hardware, per Microsoft.
Are businesses seeing productivity gains from AI PCs?
Not yet at scale, per Gartner. Its January 2026 release said most AI PC features, including local inference, have not delivered significant productivity gains compared with cloud AI, and that many organizations buy AI PCs to future-proof fleets. Gartner expects 40% of software vendors to prioritize on-PC AI by end-2026, up from 2% in 2024.
Which is the better AI PC platform for enterprise fleets, x86 or Arm?
In volume terms, x86. Gartner forecast x86 on Windows at 71% of the 2025 AI business laptop market versus 24% for Arm. On NPU rating, Arm currently leads: Qualcomm’s 80 TOPS Snapdragon X2 Elite has 2.0 times the Copilot+ floor, against 1.5 times for AMD’s top SKU and 1.25 times for Intel’s.
When will AI PC prices come down?
Not in 2026 on current forecasts. IDC does not expect the memory shortage to ease until early 2028, and Omdia’s research indicates memory and storage prices are not projected to reverse this year. Gartner expects the sub-$500 PC segment to disappear by 2028.