ETF Trends 2027
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Sarah Davis | Last updated: November 4, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
Investors put a record $2.24 trillion into ETFs worldwide in the first nine months of 2026, and global ETF assets reached $23.91 trillion at the end of September. That makes 88 straight months of net inflows, according to ETFGI.
Quick Answer
In the Axis Trend Scorecard, the three ETF trends with the most evidence behind them for 2027 are active ETFs (32.8% of 2026 global inflows from 11.3% of assets), fixed income ETFs (inflows up 39.3% year over year), and Europe’s acceleration (inflows equal to 13.4% of starting assets, ahead of the US at 11.6%). Axis Intelligence Research projects about $31 trillion in global ETF assets by the end of 2027 in its base case. That is above every published global forecast we reviewed.
Key Findings
- Axis Intelligence Research projects global ETF assets of about $31 trillion by December 2027 in its base case. Its range runs from $21 trillion if 2022 repeats to $36 trillion if 2024’s inflow rate and 2025’s market gains return together.
- Active ETFs took 32.8% of global ETF net inflows through September 2026 while holding 11.3% of assets, a 2.9× flow-to-asset multiple (Axis Intelligence Research, from ETFGI data).
- European ETFs gathered inflows equal to 13.4% of their end-2025 assets in nine months of 2026, against 11.6% for US ETFs, per Axis Intelligence Research calculations on ETFGI data.
- Active ETFs took 37.8% of US ETF inflows in 2026 through September but, at ICI’s 2025 fee levels, account for an estimated 59% to 75% of the annual fee revenue those inflows generate (Axis Intelligence Research estimate).
- PwC’s 2023 survey gave $18 trillion by June 2027 as its upside case. Global ETF assets passed $24 trillion in August 2026, 10 months before that horizon (Axis Intelligence Research track-record check).
How Big Is the ETF Industry Going Into 2027?
Global ETF assets were $23.91 trillion at the end of September 2026, up 20.7% from $19.81 trillion at the end of 2025, according to ETFGI’s October 26, 2026 release. The all-time high, $24.03 trillion, came a month earlier, at the end of August.
The wrapper is now very large. ETFGI counts 17,989 ETFs from 1,076 providers, listed on 83 exchanges in 65 countries. That is 2,182 more products than the 15,807 it counted at the end of 2025, a 13.8% increase in nine months. Assets grew faster than the product count, so the average ETF now manages about $1.33 billion, up from about $1.26 billion at year-end (Axis Intelligence Research calculation).
In the US, ETFs held 30% of all investment company net assets at year-end 2025, up from 2% in 2003, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI). The share is still rising because new money keeps choosing the ETF wrapper. PwC’s 2026 survey found that ETF net inflows in 2025 were nearly 3.5 times those of mutual funds. ICI’s latest monthly data puts US ETF assets at $16.15 trillion at the end of September 2026, up 27.8% in 12 months, with $1.49 trillion of net issuance year to date against $908.0 billion a year earlier, a 64.2% increase (Axis Intelligence Research calculation).
| Metric | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global ETF assets | $23.91T | Sept 30, 2026 | ETFGI |
| Record high | $24.03T | Aug 31, 2026 | ETFGI |
| YTD net inflows | $2.24T | Sept 30, 2026 | ETFGI |
| September net inflows | $276.06B | Sept 2026 | ETFGI |
| Number of ETFs | 17,989 | Sept 30, 2026 | ETFGI |
| Consecutive months of inflows | 88 | Sept 2026 | ETFGI |
| US ETF share of investment company assets | 30% | Year-end 2025 | ICI |
| US ETF assets | $16.15T | Sept 30, 2026 | ICI |
| US ETF net issuance, YTD | $1.49T | Sept 2026 | ICI |
ICI and ETFGI count US ETFs differently: ETFGI reports $16.24 trillion and 5,780 ETFs, ICI $16.15 trillion and 5,368 ETFs. Each figure on this page is attributed to the firm that produced it.
Where Does ETF Growth Actually Come From? Flows vs. Market Effect
Most outlooks quote one growth rate. We split it in two.
Each year’s change in assets has two parts. Organic growth is net inflows divided by assets at the start of the year: new money. Market effect is everything else: price moves, currency swings, closures and data revisions, calculated as a residual. Axis Intelligence Research computed both from ETFGI’s year-end releases.
| Year | Start assets | End assets | Net inflows | Organic growth | Market effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $10.26T | $9.23T | $0.86T | 8.3% | −18.4% |
| 2023 | $9.26T | $11.63T | $0.97T | 10.5% | +15.1% |
| 2024 | $11.63T | $14.85T | $1.88T | 16.2% | +11.5% |
| 2025 | $14.85T | $19.85T | $2.37T | 16.0% | +17.7% |
| 2026 (Jan–Sept) | $19.81T | $23.91T | $2.24T | 11.3% (9 months) | +9.4% (9 months) |
Source: ETFGI year-end and monthly releases; organic and market-effect columns are Axis Intelligence Research calculations. ETFGI later revised end-2022 assets to $9.26T and end-2025 to $19.81T; each row uses the start value from the release that covers that year.
The table shows that flows are the steadier driver. In 2022, prices took 18.4% off the industry’s assets, but investors still added the equivalent of 8.3%. Organic growth has been 16% or more for two years running. At an annualized 15.1%, 2026 is on the same pace. The volatility comes from the market column, and that column is the one that will decide where 2027 ends.
That distinction matters for a fee business. An issuer’s revenue is assets times basis points. Assets that arrive as flows tend to stay in the wrapper. Assets that come from a rally can disappear in the next drawdown.
How Much Will ETF Assets Be in 2027? The Axis Base Case
Axis Intelligence Research projects global ETF assets of about $31 trillion by December 31, 2027 in its base case. The upside scenario reaches about $36 trillion. The downside falls to about $21 trillion.
The model rests on one identity: end-2027 assets = today’s assets + observed flows + market effect, compounded monthly from ETFGI’s September 2026 reading.
Formula: A(t+1) = A(t) × (1 + o/12 + m/12), applied for 15 months from A₀ = $23.91 trillion (September 30, 2026), where o is the annual organic growth rate and m is the annual market effect.
| Scenario | Organic growth (o) | Market effect (m) | Where the assumption comes from | End-2026 checkpoint | End-2027 assets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 15.1% | +6.5% | o = 2026 YTD pace, annualized; m = average of 2022–2025, including the 2022 drawdown | $25.2T | $31.3T |
| Upside | 16.2% | +17.7% | o = 2024 (highest observed); m = 2025 | $26.0T | $36.3T |
| Downside | 8.3% | −18.4% | o and m = 2022 (a bear-market repeat) | $23.3T | $21.1T |
In the base case, net inflows add about $5.1 trillion between October 2026 and December 2027, and market effect adds about $2.2 trillion. Flows do roughly 70% of the work.
Sensitivity. Moving market effect by 5 percentage points either way changes the end-2027 figure to between $29.4 trillion and $33.2 trillion. Moving organic growth by 3 points changes it to between $30.1 trillion and $32.4 trillion. The market assumption has the bigger effect, so readers who want to challenge the number should start with that one.
Where the base case sits. At about $31 trillion, the Axis base case is above every published forecast in the reconciliation below. The difference comes from one assumption. Published forecasts imply organic growth slowing toward 10–14% a year. We keep it at the rate actually observed in 2024, 2025 and 2026, because no data yet shows it slowing. If ETFGI’s December figures show 2026 inflows slowing to a 2023-like 10% organic rate, the base case is too high, and we will say so.
Signposts to watch:
- Mid-January 2027, ETFGI’s December 2026 release. The base path puts end-2026 assets at about $25.2 trillion. Inflows at the base pace alone would lift assets to about $24.8 trillion, so a reading below that means markets subtracted value in the fourth quarter.
- ETFGI’s monthly releases through 2027. The base case needs average monthly net inflows of about $342 billion. September 2026 came in at $276 billion.
- J.P. Morgan’s 2026 call. In its July 10, 2026 midyear report, J.P. Morgan Asset Management said US ETF flows were on track to finish 35% to 40% above 2025. Measured against ETFGI’s 2025 US record of $1.50 trillion, that means $2.03 trillion to $2.10 trillion, which requires $155 billion to $180 billion a month in the fourth quarter. ETFGI measured $152.93 billion in September.
- The 89th month. The inflow streak has lasted 88 months. A month of net outflows would move the model straight toward its downside.
Related coverage is collected on our wealth and asset management outlooks hub.
ETF Forecasts Compared: State Street, PwC, J.P. Morgan and Axis
Forecasters measure different universes. Morningstar’s global ETF count, which State Street uses, started 2025’s year-end at $18.21 trillion. ETFGI’s, which we use, started at $19.81 trillion. To compare like with like, we compare growth rates.
| Forecaster | Published | Base | Projection | Horizon | Implied annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Street / Morningstar | 2026 (data to May 2026) | $18.21T (2025) | $23.04T | 2027 | 12.5% |
| State Street / Morningstar | 2026 | $18.21T (2025) | $33.30T | 2030 | 12.8% |
| PwC Global ETF Survey (>⅓ of respondents) | Mar 2, 2026 | $19.5T (end-2025) | ≥$35T | June 2030 | 13.9% |
| PwC Global ETF Survey (~70% of respondents) | Mar 2, 2026 | $19.5T (end-2025) | ≥$30T | June 2030 | 10.0% |
| J.P. Morgan Asset Management (US only, as reported by Benzinga) | Aug 2, 2026 | not stated | $25T US | 2030 | n/a |
| Axis Intelligence Research base case | Nov 4, 2026 | $19.81T (end-2025) | ≈$31T | Dec 2027 | 25.6% |
Implied growth rates are Axis Intelligence Research calculations from each firm’s stated base and projection. PwC figures are survey thresholds, not point forecasts.
Applying State Street’s 2025-to-2027 growth multiple to ETFGI’s end-2025 base gives $25.06 trillion for 2027. ETFGI already measured $23.91 trillion in September 2026. The industry has covered most of State Street’s two-year path in nine months.
J.P. Morgan’s $25 trillion figure for US ETFs does not appear in the firm’s own U.S. ETF Midyear Report (July 10, 2026), which we read in full. It is attributed here to J.P. Morgan as reported by Benzinga.
Differences in scope do not explain the gap, because the comparison uses growth rates. The gap comes from timing. The 2030 forecasts were built on surveys and data from 2025 and early 2026, and they assume organic growth will slow. So far, actual flows have not slowed.
Have ETF Forecasts Been Too Cautious? The Track Record
They have, repeatedly.
In March 2023, PwC’s ETFs 2027 survey reported that 70% of executives expected global ETF assets of $15 trillion or more by June 2027. Only 29% expected $18 trillion. The base was $9.2 trillion at the end of 2022. ETFGI recorded $24.03 trillion in August 2026, 33.5% above the optimists’ threshold, with 10 months still to go.
State Street’s own series shows the same pattern. Its 2026–2027 ETF Impact Report says the previous edition’s 2035 projection was $54 trillion. The current edition puts 2035 at $63.49 trillion.
None of this proves our base case right. A 2022 can arrive at any time, and our downside shows what one would cost. But anyone treating the published range as a ceiling should know that, for three years, actual assets have finished above it.
Biggest ETF Trends for 2027, Ranked by the Axis Trend Scorecard
The Axis Trend Scorecard measures how much current evidence supports each trend, not how often it gets discussed. Each trend is scored from 1 to 5 on four criteria: adoption, acceleration, maturity, and barriers (scored inversely, so 5 means low barriers). The full rubric is in the methodology section.
| Rank | Trend | Adoption | Acceleration | Maturity | Barriers (inv.) | Total /20 | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Active ETFs | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18 | Scaling |
| 2 | Fixed income ETFs | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | Mainstream |
| 2 | Europe’s acceleration | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | Scaling |
| 4 | Commodity and gold ETFs (cooling) | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | Mainstream, slowing |
| 5 | ETF share classes of mutual funds | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | Emerging |
| 6 | Spot crypto ETFs | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | Scaling in the US only |
| 6 | Tokenized ETF shares | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | Emerging |
Axis Intelligence Research scoring, November 4, 2026; evidence for each score is in the CSV.
1. Active ETFs: Will Active Overtake Passive Inflows?
What it is. An active ETF is a fund whose manager picks holdings rather than tracking an index, sold in the ETF wrapper.
The evidence. Global active ETF assets reached a record $2.72 trillion at the end of August 2026, up 42.6% from $1.91 trillion at the end of 2025, according to ETFGI. Active ETFs gathered $733.95 billion through September, up from $446.75 billion in the same period of 2025. Their share of global inflows has climbed from 19.9% in 2024 to 26.9% in 2025 and 32.8% in 2026 so far (Axis Intelligence Research, from ETFGI data). In the US, active took 37.8% of year-to-date ETF inflows. J.P. Morgan Asset Management counted 33% of US ETF flows going to active funds in the first half, which pushed active US equity and fixed income flows to record levels. Morningstar counted 924 new active ETF launches in the US by late 2025, 59% more than the year before.
Who leads. Dimensional ($320.1 billion, 11.8% share) and JP Morgan ($319.1 billion, 11.7%) were close to tied at the top of the global active ETF market at the end of August, with iShares third at $186.7 billion. The top three hold only 30.4% of active ETF assets. Overall, the top three issuers hold 58.3% of ETF assets. Active is the part of the market where scale has not yet settled the rankings.
Why it matters in 2027. Active ETFs are where issuers still earn margin. ICI’s asset-weighted averages for 2025 were 0.44% for active equity ETFs and 0.33% for active bond ETFs, against 0.14% and 0.09% for their index counterparts, roughly three times as much. That makes the active share of flows a better guide to issuer revenue than the active share of assets (see the fee section below).
What would prove it overhyped. Europe. Active took just 9.6% of European ETF inflows in 2026, according to ETFGI’s European data, and Morningstar measured active at 2.6% of European ETF assets in August 2025, against 10.2% in the US. If active’s share of global flows falls back below 25% in 2027, the 2026 surge was a US product cycle, not a structural change.
2. Fixed Income ETFs: The Bond Allocation Moves Into the Wrapper
The evidence. Fixed income ETFs took $437.78 billion globally through September 2026, up 39.3% from $314.16 billion a year earlier, per ETFGI. That is 19.5% of all ETF inflows. In the US, bond ETFs gathered $293.44 billion year to date. In September alone, they took $40.08 billion, almost as much as US equity ETFs’ $41.02 billion. J.P. Morgan Asset Management reported that fixed income took nearly 30% of US ETF flows in the first half of 2026, and that active funds took about 37% of fixed income ETF flows.
The price point. Index bond ETFs averaged 0.09% in 2025, down one basis point, and 50% lower over nine years, according to ICI. Bond mutual funds averaged 0.36%. For a fixed income allocation, the 27-basis-point difference is often larger than the yield advantage between competing strategies.
The forecast. J.P. Morgan Asset Management expects global fixed income ETFs to grow from about $3.6 trillion to $7 trillion by 2030, and active fixed income ETFs from about $650 billion to $2 trillion, according to its chief ETF strategist Jon Maier, speaking to Benzinga. These projections do not appear in the firm’s published midyear report.
What would prove it wrong. A credit event in which bond ETFs trade at deep discounts to their net asset value would change advisers’ view of the wrapper faster than any fee table could.
3. Europe’s Acceleration: Is Europe Growing Faster Than the US?
Measured by flows relative to size, it is, and none of the published trend lists we reviewed makes this point.
The evidence. European ETFs gathered a record $432.45 billion through September 2026, up 48.6% from $290.92 billion in the same period of 2025, according to ETFGI. Assets reached $3.94 trillion. Relative to end-2025 assets, Europe’s flow intensity was 13.4%, against 11.6% for the US and 7.8% for the rest of the world (Axis Intelligence Research calculation).
| Region | Assets (Sept 2026) | Share of global assets | YTD inflows | Share of global inflows | Flow intensity* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | $16.24T | 67.9% | $1.56T | 69.6% | 11.6% |
| Europe | $3.94T | 16.5% | $432.45B | 19.3% | 13.4% |
| Rest of world | $3.73T | 15.6% | $248B | 11.1% | 7.8% |
*YTD net inflows ÷ end-2025 assets. Rest of world is global minus US minus Europe. Source: ETFGI; Axis Intelligence Research calculations.
Who leads. iShares holds 38.8% of European ETF assets ($1.53 trillion). Amundi ETF ($489.8 billion), Xtrackers ($397.2 billion), Vanguard ($298.8 billion) and UBS ETFs ($210.0 billion) follow, according to ETFGI. The top five control 74.1%.
What would prove it wrong. Europe’s market is still fragmented, with 4,126 ETFs spread across 16,880 listings on 31 exchanges, according to ETFGI. If that fragmentation keeps spreads wide for retail investors, inflows could stall at the current level.
4. Commodity and Gold ETFs: The Trend That Is Cooling
This trend is real, but it is weakening. Global commodity ETF inflows fell to $56.59 billion through September 2026 from $73.18 billion a year earlier, a 22.7% decline, according to ETFGI. In the US, commodity inflows dropped to $5.50 billion from $39.07 billion. Physical gold still drew the month’s largest ETP inflows in September: Perth Mint Gold took $11.68 billion and SPDR Gold Shares $1.89 billion. Commodity ETFs are a mature category that is now growing more slowly.
5. ETF Share Classes: Could Mutual Fund Assets Move Into ETFs?
What it is. An ETF share class lets an existing mutual fund add an ETF version of itself. Both share the same portfolio, so investors can move into the ETF without selling the fund.
The evidence. The SEC granted Dimensional exemptive relief to offer ETF and mutual fund share classes, announced on November 17, 2025, after a filing first made in July 2023. On March 17, 2026, the SEC granted the final relief needed for broker-dealers to trade ETF shares of multi-class funds, according to ICI. In December 2025, according to Morningstar, the SEC approved 30 more of the 91 firms that had applied. About 100 investment managers had filed applications by mid-March 2026, according to Federal Register data cited by State Street.
The first launches. Dimensional launched the first actively managed ETF share class, the Dimensional US Micro Cap ETF (DFMC), in March 2026, according to its newsroom. In June 2026, Dimensional announced it would fold eight US equity ETFs into ETF share classes of funds with similar objectives, a combined market value of about $250 billion ($100 billion in ETFs and $150 billion in mutual funds), with management-fee cuts averaging 9% effective November 1, 2026, as reported by ETFdb. The same report says Fidelity launched its first ETF share classes that week.
Why it matters in 2027. State Street calls this potentially “the largest single-asset migration in asset management history.” Dimensional’s restructuring alone involves assets equal to about 1.0% of global ETF assets (Axis Intelligence Research calculation). Our scorecard gives the trend 2 out of 5 for adoption: products are live, but no primary source yet publishes industry-wide assets in ETF share classes.
What to watch. Fund board approvals and the first quarterly asset figures for ETF share classes. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s July report adds a related signal: conversions of separately managed accounts into ETFs have accelerated after the early mutual fund-to-ETF conversions. PwC found that 56% of surveyed executives count conversions from other products as a significant growth driver.
6. Spot Crypto ETFs: Big for One Issuer, Small for the Industry
The evidence. On September 17, 2025, the SEC approved generic listing standards for commodity-based trust shares. Qualifying spot crypto products can now list without a separate rule filing for each one. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) held $64.69 billion on October 26, 2026, and its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) held $7.82 billion on October 23, 2026. Both charge a 0.25% sponsor fee, per the iShares product pages.
The industry total. The latest global aggregate ETFGI has published free of charge covers November 2025: crypto ETFs held $179.16 billion across 405 products, down 21.9% from a record $229.53 billion in September 2025 (Axis Intelligence Research calculation), and iShares held 46.4% of the segment. That total equals about 0.92% of the $19.44 trillion global ETF market at the same date. [Older data: ETFGI’s 2026 digital-asset reports are paid.]
What the numbers show. IBIT’s sponsor fee implies a gross revenue run rate of about $162 million a year, before any waivers (Axis Intelligence Research estimate). That fee is 1.8 times the 0.14% average for index equity ETFs. IBIT’s assets equal 0.27% of global ETF assets. Crypto ETFs earn above-average fees, but they are a small part of total industry assets. PwC found that 46% of issuers globally would launch a digital asset ETF if their regulator allowed it, up from 36% a year earlier. That is a pipeline, not current assets. For the wider sector, see our fintech statistics.
7. Tokenized ETFs: The Infrastructure Is Live; Adoption Isn’t Measured Yet
What it is. A tokenized ETF share is the same share, with the same CUSIP and ticker, recorded as a token on a blockchain-based ledger instead of only as a book entry.
The evidence. On March 18, 2026, the SEC approved Nasdaq’s rule to let securities trade in tokenized form during the DTC tokenization pilot. Eligible securities include Russell 1000 stocks and ETFs that track major indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. Tokenized shares must be fungible with the traditional shares and still settle T+1. DTCC ran its first production trades with tokenized DTC assets on July 15, 2026. More than 30 firms took part, including BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street Investment Management and Invesco. The DTCC Tokenization Service went live on October 28, 2026. DTCC says 20 DTC participants had signed agreements to use it at launch, including Bank of America, Citi, Edward Jones, Fidelity Investments, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, State Street and UBS. The service runs on the Canton Network and DTCC’s private Besu network, with more blockchain networks due in 2027. Under the SEC no-action letter DTC received in December 2025, the eligible assets are Russell 1000 stocks, ETFs tracking major indexes and US Treasuries.
Why it scores 11. Settlement is unchanged at T+1, the order book is shared with traditional shares, and only eligible DTC participants can request tokenization. So far, tokenization changes how ETF shares are recorded and moved, not who can buy them or when. No primary source yet publishes the volume of tokenized ETF shares. PwC projects all tokenised fund assets, not only ETFs, reaching $715 billion by 2030 from $90 billion in 2024.
What to watch in 2027. Nasdaq’s Equity Trader Alerts listing eligible securities, DTCC’s first usage figures, the new blockchain networks DTCC has promised for 2027, and whether any filing proposes trading outside the T+1, shared-order-book structure.
Who Are the Largest ETF Issuers, and Is Their Lead Shrinking?
iShares remains the largest ETF issuer globally, with $6.55 trillion (27.3% of assets) at the end of August 2026. Vanguard had $5.18 trillion (21.6%) and State Street SPDR $2.35 trillion (9.8%), according to ETFGI.
In the US, the order changed in 2026. Vanguard overtook iShares as the largest US ETF provider, according to VettaFi data reported by ETF Trends on June 12, 2026. The same report says the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) became the first ETF with $1 trillion in assets and that Vanguard runs six of the ten largest ETFs. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s July report also notes that one ETF passed $1 trillion in 2026.
Flows tell a different story. Vanguard gathered $440.69 billion in 2026 through August, more than iShares’ $410.51 billion, on a smaller asset base. Axis Intelligence Research’s flow-share gap compares each issuer’s share of inflows with its share of assets:
| Issuer | Share of assets (Aug 2026) | Share of YTD inflows | Flow-share gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| iShares | 27.3% | 20.9% | −6.3 pts |
| Vanguard | 21.6% | 22.5% | +0.9 pts |
| State Street SPDR | 9.8% | 6.8% | −3.0 pts |
| All other providers | 41.4% | 49.8% | +8.5 pts |
Source: ETFGI (Sept 16, 2026 release); shares and gaps are Axis Intelligence Research calculations.
Vanguard is the only one of the three gaining share. Over time, issuers with a negative gap lose share. The top three’s combined share fell from 59.5% at the end of 2025 to 58.3% at the end of September 2026. Active ETFs are one place that money is going: Dimensional and JP Morgan, both outside the top three, each hold more active ETF assets than iShares. In the US, the same three issuers still control 70.0% of assets, and Vanguard’s $388.0 billion in year-to-date inflows leads iShares’ $313.8 billion. Company detail is on our BlackRock statistics and Vanguard statistics pages.
Are ETF Fees Still Falling?
Index equity ETF fees have stopped falling, and so have active equity ETF fees. The asset-weighted average expense ratio for US index equity ETFs was 0.14% in 2025, unchanged from 2024, according to ICI. Active equity ETFs averaged 0.44% in 2025, against 0.43% in 2023, after falling from 0.90% in 2017. Index bond ETFs fell one basis point to 0.09%, and active bond ETFs averaged 0.33%.
The gap between what is offered and what investors pay is wide. The simple average expense ratio of all US index equity ETFs was 0.45% in 2025, but the asset-weighted average was 0.14%, because money concentrates in the cheapest funds. ICI reports that 78% of index equity fund assets sit in the lowest-cost quartile.
Where the revenue actually goes. Active ETFs took $590.23 billion of the $1.56 trillion that entered US ETFs through September 2026, according to ETFGI. Pricing active flows at 0.33% to 0.44% and the rest at 0.09% to 0.14% (ICI’s 2025 averages), Axis Intelligence Research estimates that active ETFs account for 59% to 75% of the annual fee revenue generated by 2026’s US inflows, while taking 37.8% of the dollars. This is why issuers keep launching active ETFs even though fees on index funds have stopped falling.
| Fund type (US) | Asset-weighted expense ratio, 2025 | Change vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Index equity ETFs | 0.14% | 0 bp |
| Index bond ETFs | 0.09% | −1 bp |
| Equity mutual funds | 0.40% | 0 bp |
| Bond mutual funds | 0.36% | −2 bp |
| Active equity ETFs | 0.44% | +1 bp vs 2023 |
| Active bond ETFs | 0.33% | −1 bp vs 2023 |
| Spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT sponsor fee) | 0.25% | — |
Sources: ICI (March 25, 2026 release and Research Perspective 32-01, Figure 7; ICI shows active ETF values for odd years only); iShares product page (October 26, 2026).
For how retail platforms are changing distribution, see our digital banking statistics.
ETF Trend Lists Compared: Where Analysts Agree and Where Axis Differs
We compared four published outlooks: Morningstar’s 2026 ETF Landscape (data to November 30, 2025), PwC’s Global ETF Survey 2025 (March 2026), State Street’s ETF Impact Report 2026–2027, and J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s U.S. ETF Midyear Report (July 10, 2026) together with its strategist’s comments to Benzinga (August 2026). Their themes are summarized below, not quoted.
| Theme | Morningstar | PwC | State Street | J.P. Morgan AM | Agreement | Axis Scorecard view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active ETFs | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | All four | Agree: ranked #1 (18/20) |
| Share classes and conversions | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | All four | Agree on direction; 13/20 until assets are reported |
| Derivatives and derivative income | ✓ (buffer and derivative-income ETFs) | — | ✓ | ✓ | Three | Not scored; Morningstar counted $163B in derivative-income assets in late 2025 and $62B in buffer ETFs |
| Tokenization / 24/7 trading | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | Two | More cautious: 11/20; infrastructure live, T+1 unchanged, no volume data |
| Fixed income | — | — | — | ✓ | One | Rated higher: 17/20 on actual inflows |
| Private markets in ETFs | ✓ | — | — | — | One | Not scored; Morningstar’s verdict is “too soon to tell” |
| Thematic ETFs | ✓ (declining) | — | — | ✓ (resurging) | Contested | See below |
| Digital asset ETFs | — | ✓ (top-3 demand) | — | — | One | More cautious: 11/20; IBIT is 0.27% of global ETF assets |
| Asia Pacific / Japan | — | — | ✓ | — | One | Data disagrees for now: rest-of-world flow intensity 7.8% vs 13.4% for Europe |
| Europe’s acceleration | — | — | — | — | None | Axis-only finding: 17/20 |
Thematic ETFs: where the sources disagree. Morningstar describes thematic funds as one of the weak categories: European-domiciled thematic funds had ten straight quarters of outflows through the third quarter of 2025. J.P. Morgan Asset Management reports the opposite for US ETFs in 2026, with thematic assets up nearly 33% in the first half to about $430 billion. The two findings cover different regions and periods, so both can be accurate. The 2027 question is whether the US recovery, led by AI-related themes according to J.P. Morgan, spreads to Europe.
Every list we reviewed includes active ETFs and ETF share classes, and our scorecard agrees on both. We differ in two places. The lists rank tokenization and crypto higher than the current data supports. And none of them names Europe, even though Europe has the fastest flow growth relative to its size.
What Could Change This ETF Outlook?
- A 2022-style drawdown. Market effect is the most powerful variable in the model. A repeat of 2022 takes end-2027 assets to about $21 trillion even with steady inflows.
- An energy shock. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2026 Mid-Year Outlook describes an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a stagflation scenario that would pressure both equities and bonds. That is the kind of event behind our downside’s −18.4% market effect. Market-level outlooks are on our financial markets and investing hub.
- A break in the inflow streak. After 88 months, a month of net outflows would be the first sign that organic growth is slowing.
- Share-class assets arriving faster than expected. If ETF share classes start reporting meaningful assets in 2027, our downside on flows is too low.
- Crypto regulation outside the US. PwC found that 55% of European respondents would launch a digital asset ETF if allowed. A regulatory change there would lift the crypto trend’s barrier score.
- Tokenization beyond T+1. Any approved proposal for tokenized ETF shares to trade or settle outside the current structure would move tokenized ETFs from emerging to scaling.
FAQ
How much money is invested in ETFs worldwide?
$23.91 trillion at the end of September 2026, according to ETFGI. The record is $24.03 trillion, set at the end of August 2026. Investors added $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of 2026, the largest January-to-September total on record. The full-year record is still 2025’s $2.37 trillion.
Will ETF assets reach $30 trillion?
In the Axis Intelligence Research base case, yes: about $31 trillion by the end of 2027. That assumes organic growth stays at its 2026 pace and markets add their 2022–2025 average. Nearly 70% of the executives PwC surveyed expect at least $30 trillion by June 2030.
What share of ETF inflows goes to active ETFs?
32.8% globally through September 2026, and 37.8% in the US, per Axis Intelligence Research calculations on ETFGI data. Active ETFs held 11.3% of global ETF assets at the end of August.
Who is the largest ETF provider in the world?
Globally, iShares, with $6.55 trillion and a 27.3% share of ETF assets at the end of August 2026 (ETFGI). In the US, Vanguard overtook iShares in 2026, according to VettaFi data reported by ETF Trends in June 2026. Vanguard has also collected more inflows than iShares in 2026, both globally and in the US.
Are ETF fees still going down?
Not for equity ETFs. According to ICI, the asset-weighted average held at 0.14% for index equity ETFs in 2025 and edged up to 0.44% for active equity ETFs from 0.43% in 2023. Index bond ETFs fell one basis point to 0.09%.
What is an ETF share class of a mutual fund?
It is an ETF version of an existing mutual fund, holding the same portfolio. The SEC finished granting the relief needed to launch and trade them on March 17, 2026, and about 100 managers had applied by then, according to Federal Register data cited by State Street. Dimensional launched the first active ETF share class (DFMC) in March 2026.
Can you buy tokenized ETFs?
Tokenized versions of eligible ETFs, those that track major indexes such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100, can trade on Nasdaq in tokenized form under a March 2026 SEC order. DTCC’s tokenization service went live on October 28, 2026. Only eligible DTC participants can request tokenization, and settlement stays at T+1.
How big is the largest bitcoin ETF?
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) held $64.69 billion on October 26, 2026, and charges a 0.25% sponsor fee, according to its iShares product page.
Methodology
Data. All industry totals come from ETFGI’s monthly and year-end releases, which cover ETFs only and exclude other ETPs, and use their stated values. Where a later release revises an earlier figure (end-2025: $19.85T in January 2026, $19.81T in October 2026), each calculation uses the figure from the release that covers that period, and the CSV shows both. Fees come from ICI, crypto fund assets from iShares product pages, regulation from SEC releases and orders, and tokenization milestones from DTCC.
Flow-vs-market decomposition. Market effect = end assets − start assets − net inflows. This is a residual, so it includes price moves, exchange rates, fund closures and data revisions, not only market returns.
Axis Base Case. Fifteen monthly steps from $23.91T, with annual organic and market-effect rates split evenly across months. Every assumption is an observed historical rate, not a judgment call. Limitations: the model does not separate out currency effects, treats organic growth as proportional to assets, and cannot anticipate regulatory events such as share-class conversions.
Forecast reconciliation. We compare implied annual growth rates, not dollar levels, because Morningstar, PwC and ETFGI measure different universes. PwC figures are survey thresholds. J.P. Morgan’s $25 trillion US figure comes from a press interview; its July 2026 midyear report, which we read, does not contain it.
Trend Scorecard rubric. Adoption: share of 2026 global ETF inflows ≥25% = 5; 10–25% = 4; 2–10% = 3; live products but under 2%, or no flow data = 2; no verified live assets = 1. Acceleration: inflows up ≥50% year over year = 5; up 20–50%, or ≥50 named firms filing or participating = 4; up 0–20%, or a regulatory pathway opened within 18 months = 3; inflows falling = 2; no evidence = 1. Maturity: mainstream with multi-year data = 5; scaling with rules in place for more than a year = 4; rules finalized within 12 months = 3; infrastructure live for less than 3 months or in pilot = 2; proposal only = 1. Barriers (inverse): none material = 5; operational or distribution friction = 4; cost or partial eligibility limits = 3; not permitted in major markets = 2; blocked = 1. The barrier score involves the most judgment of the four, and the evidence behind each score is in the CSV.
Fee-revenue estimate. Active share of revenue = (active inflows × active fee) ÷ (active inflows × active fee + other inflows × index fee). The low end uses 0.33% for active and 0.14% for index, the high end 0.44% and 0.09%. The estimate assumes inflows are priced like the existing asset-weighted averages and excludes commodity and other non-1940 Act ETFs from ICI’s fee data.
Not covered. Leveraged and inverse ETF data and Asia-Pacific detail by country.
About This Dataset
The CSV contains 347 rows: ETFGI history from 2021 to 2026, the flows-versus-market decomposition, all three base-case scenarios with their assumption inputs and sensitivity results, the forecast reconciliation, the track-record check, regional and issuer breakdowns, fee data, crypto and tokenization indicators, the Trend Scorecard and the trend-list reconciliation. Each row lists its source organization, URL, publication date, retrieval date (November 4, 2026), and whether Axis calculated it, with the formula. License: CC BY 4.0.
Cite This Page
- APA: Davis, S., & Axis Intelligence Research. (2026, November 4). ETF trends 2027: Record flows, active’s takeover and a $31 trillion base case. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/etf-trends/
- MLA: Davis, Sarah, and Axis Intelligence Research. “ETF Trends 2027: Record Flows, Active’s Takeover and a $31 Trillion Base Case.” Axis Intelligence, 4 Nov. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/etf-trends/.
- Chicago: Davis, Sarah, and Axis Intelligence Research. “ETF Trends 2027: Record Flows, Active’s Takeover and a $31 Trillion Base Case.” Axis Intelligence, November 4, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/etf-trends/.
Grade-Back Commitment
We will compare these projections with ETFGI’s reported end-2027 figures in January 2028, after its December 2027 release, whether the result is close, high or low. That comparison will open the 2028 edition of this page. The first checkpoint is ETFGI’s December 2026 reading, due in mid-January 2027, against our base-path value of $25.2 trillion.
This analysis is not investment advice. Axis Intelligence Research makes no buy or sell recommendations and publishes no price targets for any security, index or crypto asset.