Inflation Statistics 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Sarah Davis | Last updated: October 18, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, while core prices rose only 2.6%. According to Axis Intelligence Research, energy produced 36.2% of that inflation from 7.4% of the basket, and the things households cannot skip are inflating at 4.3%, against 2.7% for everything else.
Quick Answer
The US inflation rate was 3.7% for the 12 months ending September 2026, per the BLS September 2026 CPI release. Energy rose 20.4% and gasoline 34.2%; core CPI rose 2.6%. Axis Intelligence Research calculates a Non-Discretionary Inflation Rate (NDIR) of 4.3%, versus 2.7% for discretionary spending.
Key Findings
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 3.7% from September 2025 to September 2026 and 0.6% in September alone, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, energy contributed 1.353 of the 3.737 percentage points of 12-month CPI inflation, or 36.2%, while carrying a 7.418% basket weight.
- Axis Intelligence Research estimates the US Non-Discretionary Inflation Rate (NDIR) at 4.3% in September 2026, 1.6 points above the 2.7% rate for discretionary spending.
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, non-discretionary categories make up 63.6% of the CPI basket but produced 73.4% of the past year’s inflation.
- Excluding energy, Axis Intelligence Research finds essentials inflation falls to 2.4%, below discretionary inflation, because car insurance, prescription drugs and groceries are cooling.
What Is the Inflation Rate Right Now?
The US inflation rate is 3.7%. That is the 12-month change in the CPI-U for September 2026, published by BLS on October 14, 2026. It is up from 3.4% in August and below the 4.2% peak reached in May 2026, according to BLS Table 7.
The monthly picture explains the jump. Prices rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after 0.4% in August, and BLS says the 9.1% rise in gasoline accounted for over half of the monthly increase.
US inflation measures, September 2026
| Measure | 12-month change | Latest month | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI-U, all items | 3.7% | +0.6% (SA) | BLS |
| CPI-U, all items less food and energy (core) | 2.6% | +0.3% (SA) | BLS |
| CPI-W (wage earners, used for Social Security) | 3.9% | n/a | BLS |
| Chained CPI-U (preliminary) | 3.5% | n/a | BLS |
| PCE price index (August 2026) | 3.4% | n/a | BEA |
| Core PCE price index (August 2026) | 3.0% | n/a | BEA |
In index terms, the CPI-U stood at 336.940 (1982-84 = 100) in September 2026, against 324.800 a year earlier. Axis Intelligence Research converts that into a household figure: a basket that cost $100 in September 2025 cost $103.74 in September 2026.
The CPI-W figure matters beyond economics desks. Its 330.654 September reading is the last input to the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, which our Social Security COLA statistics page breaks down month by month.
Sarah Davis: Two numbers came out of this release and they tell different stories. Headline at 3.7% says inflation is back. Core at 2.6% says the underlying price trend is still drifting down from where it was. Both are true, and the gap between them is almost entirely one input bought at the pump.
How Much of 2026 Inflation Comes From the Oil Shock?
More than a third. BLS publishes, in Table 7 of each CPI release, how many percentage points each category added to the 12-month change. Energy added 1.353 points. Core added 2.046. Food added 0.338. Those three sum to 3.737 points, the unrounded headline.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, that puts energy’s share of US inflation at 36.2%, gasoline alone at 29.2%, core at 54.7% and food at 9.0%.
Contribution to 12-month CPI inflation, September 2026
| Category | Basket weight (Aug 2026) | 12-month change | Contribution (pp) | Share of inflation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All items less food and energy | 79.075% | 2.6% | 2.046 | 54.7% | BLS Table 7; Axis calculation |
| Energy | 7.418% | 20.4% | 1.353 | 36.2% | BLS Table 7; Axis calculation |
| of which gasoline | 3.853% | 34.2% | 1.093 | 29.2% | BLS Table 7; Axis calculation |
| Food | 13.507% | 2.5% | 0.338 | 9.0% | BLS Table 7; Axis calculation |
| Total | 100% | 3.7% | 3.737 | 100% | BLS Table 7 |
According to Axis Intelligence Research, the clearest way to see the imbalance is an inflation load multiple: a category’s share of inflation divided by its share of the basket. Energy runs at 4.9 times its weight. Gasoline runs at 7.6 times.
When did energy prices start rising?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration dates the turn precisely: military action in the Middle East on February 28, 2026, followed by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. EIA reports that Brent crude started 2026 at $61 a barrel, reached $72 by the end of February, passed $100 on March 12 and finished the first quarter at $118.
The CPI picked it up immediately. The energy index rose 10.9% in March alone, then 3.8% in April and 3.9% in May, before falling 5.7% in June and 1.5% in July. It climbed again by 2.1% in August and 5.2% in September.
Monthly CPI change since the oil shock, 2026 (seasonally adjusted)
| Month | All items | Energy | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| March | +0.9% | +10.9% | BLS |
| April | +0.6% | +3.8% | BLS |
| May | +0.5% | +3.9% | BLS |
| June | -0.4% | -5.7% | BLS |
| July | +0.1% | -1.5% | BLS |
| August | +0.4% | +2.1% | BLS |
| September | +0.6% | +5.2% | BLS |
Compounding those seven monthly readings, Axis Intelligence Research estimates the overall price level rose about 2.7% between February and September 2026. Because the inputs are rounded to one decimal, treat that as an approximation, not an index reading.
Sarah Davis: The monthly table is the one to watch, not the annual one. June and July show that this shock can run in reverse quickly when crude backs off. September shows it can come back just as fast. Anyone budgeting off a single month of CPI is budgeting off the oil market.
How Much Have Gas Prices Gone Up?
About 41.5% in a year at the pump. EIA’s weekly survey put US regular gasoline at $4.331 a gallon for the week of October 12, 2026, up $1.270 from a year earlier, in its Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. Axis Intelligence Research derives a year-ago price of $3.061, so the increase is 41.5%.
The CPI gasoline index, which measures September and adjusts for quality, shows 34.2%. The two figures measure different months with different methods, so we publish both rather than averaging them. In dollar terms from the CPI index levels, $100 of gasoline in September 2025 cost $134.17 in September 2026, an Axis Intelligence Research calculation.
Retail fuel prices, week of October 12, 2026
| Market | Price per gallon | Change from a year ago | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US regular gasoline | $4.331 | +$1.270 (+41.5%) | EIA |
| California regular gasoline | $6.104 | n/a | EIA |
| West Coast (PADD5) regular | $5.639 | n/a | EIA |
| Gulf Coast (PADD3) regular | $3.851 | n/a | EIA |
| US on-highway diesel | $6.179 | +$2.514 (+68.6%) | EIA |
Crude oil accounted for 52% of the retail price of a gallon of regular in May 2026, according to EIA, which is why pump prices move so tightly with Brent.
Diesel is a cost inside every truck-delivered good. According to Axis Intelligence Research, diesel’s 68.6% annual increase has not yet shown up in core goods prices: commodities less food and energy rose only 0.7% over the year. That pass-through, if it comes, would arrive with a lag.
Which Prices Are Rising the Fastest in 2026?
Fuel and travel lead. Fuel oil is up 74.2%, the largest 12-month rise since July 2022, per BLS Table 7. Airline fares are up 22.4%, a year in which EIA reports jet fuel spot prices rose rapidly. Then come jewelry (10.8%), computers and smart home assistants (9.7%) and candy (7.7%).
Fastest-rising and falling CPI categories, 12 months to September 2026
| Category | 12-month change | Basket weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel oil | +74.2% | 0.115% | BLS Table 1 |
| Gasoline (all types) | +34.2% | 3.853% | BLS Table 1 |
| Airline fares | +22.4% | 1.040% | BLS Table 1 |
| Jewelry and watches | +10.8% | 0.178% | BLS Table 2 |
| Computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants | +9.7% | 0.319% | BLS Table 2 |
| Candy and chewing gum | +7.7% | 0.241% | BLS Table 2 |
| Coffee | +7.1% | 0.222% | BLS Table 2 |
| Toys | +6.6% | 0.298% | BLS Table 2 |
| Tobacco and smoking products | +6.4% | 0.449% | BLS Table 1 |
| Motor vehicle maintenance and repair | +5.8% | 1.063% | BLS Table 1 |
| Hospital services | +5.6% | 2.160% | BLS Table 1 |
| Used cars and trucks | -1.5% | 2.688% | BLS Table 1 |
| Furniture and bedding | -2.4% | 0.845% | BLS Table 2 |
| Prescription drugs | -4.5% | 0.909% | BLS Table 2 |
| Motor vehicle insurance | -5.0% | 2.531% | BLS Table 1 |
| Smartphones | -9.9% | n/a | BLS Table 2 |
| Eggs | -20.6% | 0.115% | BLS Table 2 |
Weights are BLS relative importance for August 2026, the share of consumer spending each item represents. Smartphones are published without a separate weight.
Hospital services, up 5.6%, are the fastest-rising medical line. The CPI tracks unit prices, not what health plans pay in total, a gap our healthcare costs statistics page measures.
Is housing still driving inflation?
Housing is the largest single contributor to core inflation, but it is no longer accelerating. The shelter index rose 3.2% over the year and carries a 35.323% weight, the biggest in the basket. Rent of primary residence rose 2.8% and owners’ equivalent rent, the imputed rent homeowners would pay themselves, rose 3.3%. Hotel and motel lodging rose 4.4%.
For mortgage borrowers the bigger pressure is rates, not the CPI shelter line; our mortgage statistics page tracks that side.
Is car insurance inflation over?
In the CPI, yes for now. The motor vehicle insurance index fell 5.0% over the year, one of the larger declines in the basket. Repair costs moved the other way, up 5.8%. Drivers comparing premiums by state can use our car insurance cost by state data alongside this index.
Sarah Davis: Car insurance is the quiet reason core CPI looks tame. It carries a 2.531% weight and fell 5.0%. A falling insurance index is a drag on core with a built-in limit: once premiums stop falling, core loses a cushion it has been leaning on, and repair costs at 5.8% show the underlying claims bill is still rising.
Are Grocery Prices Still Going Up?
Slowly. The food at home index rose 1.8% over the year, the smallest 12-month rise since December 2024, according to BLS Table 7. It fell 0.1% in September. Restaurant prices, the food away from home index, rose faster at 3.5%.
Inside the grocery cart the spread is wide. Eggs are down 20.6% and butter down 10.3%. Coffee is up 7.1%, ground beef up 5.4% and fish and seafood up 6.9%. Dairy overall fell 0.7%, while fruits and vegetables rose 3.7%.
Grocery prices by item, 12 months to September 2026
| Item | 12-month change | Latest month | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food at home (all groceries) | +1.8% | -0.1% | BLS Table 1 |
| Coffee | +7.1% | +0.9% | BLS Table 2 |
| Fish and seafood | +6.9% | +0.1% | BLS Table 2 |
| Uncooked ground beef | +5.4% | -0.8% | BLS Table 2 |
| Fruits and vegetables | +3.7% | +0.5% | BLS Table 2 |
| Beef and veal | +3.5% | -1.0% | BLS Table 2 |
| Dairy and related products | -0.7% | -0.9% | BLS Table 2 |
| Butter | -10.3% | -2.7% | BLS Table 2 |
| Eggs | -20.6% | -1.3% | BLS Table 2 |
Groceries contributed 0.151 percentage points to the 12-month CPI change, BLS Table 7 shows. The energy shock has not, so far, passed through to food on the shelf.
The Axis Non-Discretionary Inflation Rate (NDIR): What Do Essentials Cost Now?
The US government does not publish an inflation rate for essentials. Australia does. The Australian Bureau of Statistics classifies CPI items as non-discretionary (needed to meet a basic need, keep living arrangements running or meet a legal obligation) or discretionary, and announced it would publish both series in its regular quarterly CPI from the September 2021 quarter. In Australia’s basket, non-discretionary items carry a 61.4% weight.
Axis Intelligence Research built the US equivalent from BLS data.
Definition. The Non-Discretionary Inflation Rate (NDIR) is the 12-month price change of the CPI categories a US household cannot easily cut back on, weighted by their share of consumer spending.
What is in the basket. Groceries (food at home), shelter, household and motor energy, medical care commodities, medical care services, motor vehicle insurance, motor vehicle maintenance and repair, and water, sewer and trash collection. Restaurants, apparel, vehicles, recreation, alcohol and tobacco are treated as discretionary, in line with the ABS approach.
Formula.
- Base-period weight of each category = BLS relative importance (August 2026) x (category index September 2025 / category index August 2026) / (all-items index September 2025 / all-items index August 2026)
- Contribution of each category = base-period weight x 12-month change / 100
- NDIR = sum of contributions / sum of base-period weights x 100
- Discretionary inflation rate = (unrounded headline 3.7377 – sum of NDIR contributions) / (100 – sum of NDIR base weights) x 100
The re-weighting step puts each category at its September 2025 spending share, which is how BLS computes its own contribution table. It is checkable: our derived energy contribution is 1.3469 points against the 1.353 BLS publishes.
NDIR reading, September 2026
| Measure | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Non-Discretionary Inflation Rate (NDIR) | 4.3% | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Tables 1, 2 and 7 |
| Discretionary inflation rate | 2.7% | Axis Intelligence Research |
| Gap, essentials minus discretionary | 1.6 percentage points | Axis Intelligence Research |
| NDIR basket share of spending | 63.6% | Axis Intelligence Research |
| NDIR share of 12-month CPI inflation | 73.4% | Axis Intelligence Research |
| NDIR excluding energy | 2.4% | Axis Intelligence Research |
| Energy share of NDIR | 49.1% | Axis Intelligence Research |
| Headline CPI-U, for comparison | 3.7% | BLS |
NDIR components, September 2026
| Component | Base-period weight | 12-month change | Contribution (pp) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter | 35.414% | +3.22% | 1.1416 | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Table 1 |
| Energy | 6.587% | +20.45% | 1.3469 | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Table 1 |
| Food at home | 8.316% | +1.81% | 0.1504 | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Table 1 |
| Medical care services | 6.893% | +2.53% | 0.1742 | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Table 1 |
| Motor vehicle maintenance and repair | 1.044% | +5.79% | 0.0605 | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Table 1 |
| Water, sewer and trash collection | 1.131% | +4.80% | 0.0543 | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Table 2 |
| Medical care commodities | 1.479% | -3.27% | -0.0484 | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Table 1 |
| Motor vehicle insurance | 2.740% | -4.98% | -0.1365 | Axis Intelligence Research from BLS Table 1 |
| NDIR basket | 63.604% | +4.31% | 2.7429 | Axis Intelligence Research |
Component changes are computed from unrounded BLS index levels, so they differ slightly from the one-decimal figures elsewhere on this page.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, $100 of essentials bought in September 2025 cost $104.31 in September 2026. September 2026 is the baseline NDIR reading; future readings will be published on this page with the same formula and basket.
What the NDIR shows that headline CPI hides
Two findings come out of the split, and they point in opposite directions.
First, essentials are where inflation is concentrated. They make up 63.6% of spending and produced 73.4% of the inflation, so a household whose budget leans toward rent, fuel and groceries faces a higher rate than the 3.7% headline.
Second, the essentials problem is an energy problem. Take energy out and the NDIR drops to 2.4%, below the 2.7% discretionary rate. Car insurance falling 4.98% and drug prices falling 3.27% are pulling the rest of the essentials basket down. Energy alone is 49.1% of essentials inflation.
Sarah Davis: This is the number I would hand to anyone who says inflation feels worse than 3.7%. It does, if most of your paycheck goes to rent, the tank and the grocery run. But the fix the NDIR points to is narrow. If crude falls back, the essentials rate falls with it faster than any other measure on this page, because so much of it is one line.
Are Wages Keeping Up With Inflation in 2026?
No. Real average hourly earnings for all private employees fell 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026, according to the BLS Real Earnings release of October 14, 2026. For production and nonsupervisory workers the decline was 0.6%. In September alone, real hourly pay fell 0.5%.
Nominal pay is still rising. BLS reports average hourly earnings up 3.0% over the year for all employees and 3.3% for production and nonsupervisory workers. Those increases fall short of the 3.7% CPI-U rate.
Pay vs prices, 12 months to September 2026
| Measure | 12-month change | Source |
|---|---|---|
| CPI-U | +3.7% | BLS |
| Non-Discretionary Inflation Rate (NDIR) | +4.3% | Axis Intelligence Research |
| Average hourly earnings, all employees | +3.0% | BLS Real Earnings, Table A-1 |
| Average hourly earnings, production and nonsupervisory | +3.3% | BLS Real Earnings, Table A-2 |
| Real average hourly earnings, all employees | -0.7% | BLS Real Earnings |
| Real average hourly earnings, production and nonsupervisory | -0.6% | BLS Real Earnings |
According to Axis Intelligence Research, measured against the NDIR rather than headline CPI, the shortfall on essentials is wider: 1.3 points for all employees and 1.0 point for production workers. Households have been absorbing that gap through savings and credit, which our savings rate statistics and household debt statistics pages track.
Why Is Core PCE Inflation Higher Than Core CPI?
Because the two indexes are built differently. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, rose 3.4% in the year to August 2026 and 3.0% excluding food and energy in its August 2026 release. Core CPI for the same month was 2.4%.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, that puts core PCE 0.6 points above core CPI in August 2026. BEA and BLS weight categories differently and cover different spending, so a category cooling sharply in the CPI, such as car insurance, does not pull PCE down by the same amount. Anyone forecasting Fed policy from the CPI alone is reading the softer of the two gauges.
The Fed acted on that picture. On September 16, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 point to 3.75% to 4.00% in a 12-0 vote, stating that inflation remains elevated, per the FOMC statement. The upper bound of 4.00% sits only 0.3 points above headline CPI, an Axis Intelligence Research calculation.
Is US Inflation Higher Than Europe’s?
Slightly lower on the headline. Euro area inflation was 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August and 2.2% a year earlier, according to Eurostat. The US CPI-U rate was 3.7%. The euro area’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the US CPI-U use different coverage rules, so the comparison is directional.
US vs euro area inflation, September 2026
| Measure | United States (CPI-U) | Euro area (HICP) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items | 3.7% | 3.8% | BLS; Eurostat |
| Energy | 20.4% | 18.9% | BLS; Eurostat |
| Core (ex food and energy; euro area also ex alcohol and tobacco) | 2.6% | 2.5% | BLS; Eurostat |
| Energy share of headline inflation | 36.2% | 45.0% | Axis Intelligence Research |
Eurostat reports energy contributed 1.71 percentage points to euro area inflation, which Axis Intelligence Research converts to a 45.0% share. Europe is more exposed to the same shock. Among the largest economies, Eurostat puts Spain at 5.0%, Italy at 4.2%, France at 3.4% and Germany at 3.3%.
Sarah Davis: Core is running at nearly the same rate on both sides of the Atlantic, 2.6% and 2.5%. Strip out the oil shock and neither economy has an overheating problem in the prices it controls at home. What differs is how much of the bill is imported energy.
What Will the Next CPI Report Show?
BLS will publish the October 2026 CPI on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Three inputs from this page will decide its direction.
Gasoline is first. EIA’s weekly price eased from $4.465 on September 28 to $4.331 on October 12. If that holds through the month, the energy index will subtract from the October reading rather than add.
The second is pass-through. Diesel up 68.6% and airline fares up 22.4% raise the cost of moving goods and people. Core goods rose only 0.7% over the year, and a pickup there would be the first sign that the oil shock is spreading into core.
The third is the offset from insurance and drugs. Motor vehicle insurance and prescription drugs have been pulling core and the NDIR down. When those declines end, both measures lose a cushion.
Tariffs are a separate input to core goods prices; our tariff statistics page tracks effective rates.
Methodology
Collection. Axis Intelligence Research assembled this dataset on October 18, 2026 from primary sources fetched during production: the BLS Consumer Price Index release for September 2026 (USDL-26-1574) and its Tables 1, 2 and 7; the BLS Real Earnings release for September 2026; the BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for August 2026; the September 16, 2026 FOMC statement; EIA’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update of October 14, 2026 and its Today in Energy analysis of April 7, 2026; Eurostat’s euro indicators release of October 16, 2026; and the ABS article Measuring Non-discretionary and Discretionary Inflation.
Contribution shares. Shares of inflation divide each BLS Table 7 contribution by 3.737, the sum of the food, energy and core contributions, which equals the unrounded headline (336.940 / 324.800 – 1 = 3.7377%). Inflation load multiple = share of inflation / BLS relative importance.
NDIR. Formula and basket are stated in the NDIR section. Twelve-month changes come from unrounded BLS index levels where Table 1 publishes them; the water, sewer and trash component uses BLS Table 2’s rounded 12-month change (4.8%) and August-to-September change (0.2%) in place of index levels. The classification follows the ABS principle of basic need, existing living arrangements or legal obligation. Tuition, child care and communication services were not included in this reading because their rows were not retrieved in this session; that decision is logged in the CSV as a declined row.
Other calculations. Dollar equivalents scale $100 by the index ratio. The February-to-September price change compounds BLS’s rounded seasonally adjusted monthly changes. The gasoline year-ago price subtracts EIA’s reported change from the current price. Every formula is repeated in the CSV method_note column, and all arithmetic was run in Python.
Scope. The NDIR measures prices, not spending: it does not capture households substituting toward cheaper goods. Its weights are national averages from the CPI-U, so a given household’s essentials rate depends on its own budget. US CPI and euro area HICP follow different coverage rules, so they are compared side by side and never combined. EIA weekly pump prices and the CPI gasoline index differ in timing and method and are both published rather than reconciled.
About This Dataset
inflation-statistics-2026.csv contains every number on this page: CPI-U 12-month and monthly changes and basket weights for 47 categories, BLS contribution figures, the monthly 2026 series for all items and energy, NDIR components, base weights and readings, wages, PCE, the Fed decision, EIA fuel prices, Brent milestones, euro area comparisons, the ABS precedent and two declined calculations with reasoning. Each row carries value, unit, as-of date, geography, source organization, document, URL, retrieval date, primary-source flag, calculation flag, method note and data type.
The dataset is updated on each monthly CPI release, with the next update following the October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026, and when BEA, EIA or Eurostat revise a figure used here.
License: CC BY 4.0. Reuse with attribution to Axis Intelligence Research and a link to this page. The dataset is distributed on Hugging Face, Kaggle and GitHub under the same license.
How to Cite This Page
APA: Axis Intelligence Research, & Davis, S. (2026, October 18). Inflation statistics 2026: CPI by category, the oil shock, and the essentials gap BLS does not publish. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/inflation-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research, and Sarah Davis. “Inflation Statistics 2026: CPI by Category, the Oil Shock, and the Essentials Gap BLS Does Not Publish.” Axis Intelligence, 18 Oct. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/inflation-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research, and Sarah Davis. “Inflation Statistics 2026: CPI by Category, the Oil Shock, and the Essentials Gap BLS Does Not Publish.” Axis Intelligence, October 18, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/inflation-statistics/.
Dataset: Axis Intelligence Research, Inflation Statistics 2026 dataset (Non-Discretionary Inflation Rate), 2026. CC BY 4.0.
Inflation Questions Households, Investors and Analysts Are Asking in 2026
Why did inflation jump to 3.7% if core inflation is only 2.6%?
Energy. BLS data show energy prices rose 20.4% over the year and added 1.353 percentage points to the 3.7% headline. Axis Intelligence Research calculates that energy produced 36.2% of US inflation in the year to September 2026, while core prices rose 2.6%.
How much did the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure raise US prices?
EIA dates the shock to military action on February 28, 2026 and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The CPI energy index rose 10.9% in March alone. Compounding BLS monthly data, Axis Intelligence Research estimates the overall price level rose about 2.7% from February to September 2026.
What is non-discretionary inflation, and what is the US rate?
Non-discretionary inflation measures the price change of essentials such as shelter, groceries, energy, medical care and car insurance. BLS does not publish it; Australia’s statistics bureau does. Axis Intelligence Research’s Non-Discretionary Inflation Rate (NDIR) was 4.3% in September 2026, against 2.7% for discretionary spending.
Are grocery prices still rising?
Slowly. The BLS food at home index rose 1.8% in the year to September 2026, its smallest rise since December 2024, and fell 0.1% in September. Eggs fell 20.6% and butter 10.3%, while coffee rose 7.1% and ground beef 5.4%.
Is car insurance getting cheaper in 2026?
The BLS motor vehicle insurance index fell 5.0% in the year to September 2026, one of the largest declines in the CPI. Repair costs still rose 5.8%. The insurance decline is a main reason core CPI, at 2.6%, sits below core PCE, at 3.0% in August.
Are wages keeping up with inflation?
Not in 2026. BLS reports real average hourly earnings fell 0.7% for all private employees in the year to September 2026, as nominal pay rose 3.0% against 3.7% inflation. Against Axis Intelligence Research’s 4.3% essentials rate, the shortfall is 1.3 points.
Why is core PCE inflation running above core CPI?
The two indexes weight and cover spending differently. In August 2026, core PCE rose 3.0% versus 2.4% for core CPI, per BEA and BLS, a 0.6-point gap by Axis Intelligence Research’s calculation. The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026.
Is inflation higher in the US or in Europe?
They are close. Eurostat reports euro area inflation of 3.8% in September 2026 against 3.7% for the US CPI-U. Energy accounts for a larger share in Europe: 45.0% of euro area inflation versus 36.2% in the US, per Axis Intelligence Research.
When is the next CPI report released?
BLS will publish the October 2026 Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. This page, the NDIR and the dataset update on that release.