Semiconductor Capex 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Mia Scarlett, Business & Capital Markets | Last updated: September 12, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
Global fab equipment spending is forecast to reach a record $152 billion in 2026, up 24% year over year, according to SEMI’s Q2 2026 World Fab Forecast. But the aggregate hides the real story. Across five chipmakers that disclose both figures, capital intensity now ranges from 9.4% of revenue to 39.0%, the widest gap Axis Intelligence Research has measured.
Quick Answer
Semiconductor capital expenditure in 2026 is running at record levels: SEMI forecasts $152 billion of total fab equipment spending, including $142 billion on 300mm front-end tools alone. According to Axis Intelligence Research, the five largest chipmakers that publish both capex and revenue spent 25.1% of combined quarterly revenue on capital equipment in their most recent reported quarter, with the spread between the highest and lowest spender at 29.6 percentage points.
Key Findings
- According to SEMI’s Q2 2026 World Fab Forecast, global fab equipment spending will reach $152 billion in 2026, a 24% annual increase, and $166 billion in 2027.
- According to SEMI’s Q2 2026 300mm Fab Outlook, 300mm front-end equipment spending will hit a record $142 billion in 2026, up 25%, with memory equipment spending growing 29%.
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, the Semiconductor Capital Intensity Spread (SCIS) reads 29.6 percentage points as of September 12, 2026, separating TSMC at 39.0% of revenue from Texas Instruments at 9.4%.
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, TSMC’s first-half 2026 capital intensity of 35.2% is fractionally below the 35.4% it recorded in the first half of 2025, computed from the company’s own quarterly filings in New Taiwan dollars.
- Texas Instruments spent $1.19 billion on capital expenditure in the first six months of 2026, down from $2.43 billion a year earlier, a 51.0% reduction disclosed in its Form 10-Q.
How Much Is the Semiconductor Industry Spending on Capex in 2026?
Two numbers matter, and they measure different things.
SEMI’s World Fab Forecast, Q2 2026 edition, puts total front-end equipment spending across all wafer sizes at $152 billion in 2026, growing another 9% to $166 billion in 2027. Logic and Micro is the largest single category at roughly $65 billion. The database behind that number tracks 1,622 facilities and lines, 146 of which are future projects with varying probability of reaching volume production.
The narrower 300mm Fab Outlook, also Q2 2026, isolates the leading-edge workhorse: $142 billion of 300mm front-end equipment spending in 2026, a 25% increase, across 413 tracked fabs and lines.
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total fab equipment spending | $152B (+24%) | $166B (+9%) | not published | not published | SEMI World Fab Forecast Q2 2026 |
| 300mm front-end equipment spending | $142B (+25%) | +11% | +6% | +18% | SEMI 300mm Fab Outlook Q2 2026 |
| Memory equipment spending growth | +29% | +11% | +8% | +31% | SEMI 300mm Fab Outlook Q2 2026 |
| Installed 300mm capacity growth | +7% | ~+7% | ~+7% | ~+7% | SEMI 300mm Fab Outlook Q2 2026 |
Note the last row against the first. Equipment spending rises 25% while installed 300mm capacity rises 7%. Capacity is not the product being purchased. Node complexity is. Each incremental wafer of 2nm capability absorbs more deposition, etch, metrology and lithography value than the wafer it replaces, which is why spending and capacity have decoupled.
Why SEMI’s own 2026 number moved by $9 billion in three months
On April 1, 2026, SEMI’s 300mm Fab Outlook press release put 2026 300mm equipment spending at $133 billion. The Q2 2026 edition of the same report puts it at $142 billion. Axis Intelligence Research publishes both figures rather than reconciling them. The Q2 edition documents 155 updates across 150 fabs and lines since the March 20 publication, including seven new fabs and two cancellations, which is the mechanical explanation for a $9 billion revision inside a single quarter.
Anyone citing a single 2026 capex forecast should date it. A forecast that moves 7% in ninety days is a moving object, and the revision direction has been consistently upward across editions.
Mia Scarlett: A forecast revised up twice in one year is not a forecast, it is a running tally of purchase orders that already exist. The interesting question is not whether the number goes higher. It is which line items on the income statement are funding it, and whether the same companies are funding it as last cycle. The filings say no.
Which Chipmaker Spends the Most Capex Per Dollar of Revenue?
Absolute capex tells you who is big. Capital intensity, capex divided by revenue, tells you who is betting.
Axis Intelligence Research assembled the capital intensity of every major chipmaker that publishes both capital expenditure and revenue for the same period, using each company’s most recent reported quarter as of September 12, 2026.
| Company | Segment | Quarter | Capex | Revenue | Capital intensity | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC | Foundry | 2Q26 | $15.70B | $40.20B | 39.0% | TSMC Form 6-K |
| GlobalFoundries | Specialty foundry | Q2 2026 | $0.41B | $1.79B | 22.8% | GlobalFoundries Q2 2026 results |
| Micron | Memory | FQ3 2026 | $7.10B | $41.46B | 17.1% | Micron Q3 FY26 release |
| Intel | Integrated logic | Q2 2026 | $2.65B | $16.13B | 16.4% | Intel Q2 2026 results |
| Texas Instruments | Analog and embedded | Q2 2026 | $0.51B | $5.46B | 9.4% | TI Form 10-Q |
| Panel aggregate | $26.37B | $105.03B | 25.1% | Axis Intelligence Research |
TSMC’s figure is converted from NT$496.00 billion at the 31.60 USD/NTD average rate disclosed in the same filing, so the conversion carries no assumption of ours.
The Semiconductor Capital Intensity Spread (SCIS)
SCIS stands for Semiconductor Capital Intensity Spread. It is an Axis Intelligence Research metric measuring the distance, in percentage points, between the highest and lowest capital intensity in a fixed panel of publicly reporting chipmakers, each measured in its most recent reported quarter.
Formula: SCIS = max(capex ÷ revenue) − min(capex ÷ revenue), across the panel.
Baseline reading, September 12, 2026: 29.6 points (TSMC 39.0% minus Texas Instruments 9.4%).
Panel: TSMC, Micron, Intel, GlobalFoundries, Texas Instruments. Membership rule: a company enters the panel if it publishes capital expenditure and revenue for the same reporting period in a filing or an earnings document. SK hynix is excluded on that rule, not on judgment. Its Q2 2026 release discloses revenue of 79.3187 trillion won and operating profit of 60.5426 trillion won but no capital expenditure figure, so Axis Intelligence Research leaves the cell empty in the dataset rather than estimating it.
What SCIS captures that a spending total cannot: in a broad-based cycle, capital intensity clusters, because everyone builds at once against the same demand signal. A 29.6 point spread says the opposite is happening. One cohort is converting revenue into future capacity at a rate that would have been considered reckless in any prior decade, and another cohort is harvesting cash from capacity it already built.
The panel-weighted figure is the one to quote for the industry as a whole. According to Axis Intelligence Research, these five companies committed 25.1% of a combined $105.03 billion of quarterly revenue back into plant and equipment, or roughly one dollar in four.
Mia Scarlett: Read the spread from the bottom, not the top. Texas Instruments at 9.4% is the more unusual number. This is a company that spent most of the last five years telling investors that 300mm capacity built through the downturn would pay off in the upturn. The upturn arrived, revenue rose 23% year over year, and capex fell by half. That is the shape of a capital cycle completing, and it sits in the same table as a foundry running at 39%.
Is TSMC’s Capex Increase Actually Raising Its Capital Intensity?
TSMC raised its 2026 capital budget to $60 billion to $64 billion at its July 16, 2026 earnings conference, up from the $52 billion to $56 billion range management had described in April as likely to land at the high end. That is the single largest annual capex commitment in the industry’s history.
The intensity math is less dramatic than the headline. Axis Intelligence Research computed TSMC’s half-year capital intensity directly from its quarterly filings, in New Taiwan dollars, avoiding currency translation entirely:
- H1 2026: NT$846.76 billion capex on NT$2,404.48 billion revenue = 35.2%
- H1 2025: NT$628.05 billion capex on NT$1,773.04 billion revenue = 35.4%
Capex rose 34.8% year over year in the first half. Revenue rose 35.6%. According to Axis Intelligence Research, TSMC has not increased the share of revenue it reinvests. It has increased the revenue.
That distinction matters for anyone modelling the cycle. A company raising intensity is stretching. A company holding intensity while revenue compounds is scaling within its means, and its capex line will keep rising for as long as the top line does. TSMC’s net property, plant and equipment reached NT$4,302.88 billion at the end of the second quarter, 45.9% of total assets.
The single quarter reading of 39.0% sits above the half-year average because the second quarter carried NT$496.00 billion of the half’s NT$846.76 billion. Quarterly capex is lumpy by nature, gated by tool delivery and cleanroom readiness rather than by calendar. Anyone citing a single quarter should say so.
Deeper company context sits in our semiconductor statistics pillar and, on the demand side, in Nvidia statistics 2026.
Why Is Memory Capex Rising While Memory Capital Intensity Falls?
Micron spent $7.1 billion on capital expenditure in its fiscal third quarter, up from $5.0 billion in FQ2 and $4.5 billion in FQ1. Absolute spending rose 58% across two quarters. Capital intensity fell to 17.1%.
The denominator did it. Micron’s quarterly revenue went from $9.30 billion in the year-ago quarter to $41.46 billion, a 4.5-fold increase driven by memory pricing, and no capex ramp can keep pace with that. The company guides to more than $25 billion of capital expenditure net of government incentives for fiscal 2026, per its Form 10-Q.
SEMI’s forecast of 29% memory equipment spending growth in 2026 and 31% in 2029 says the memory buildout is early, not late. Two data points frame the risk on the other side: SK hynix reported a 76% operating margin in the second quarter, and margins of that order have historically financed capacity that arrives after the pricing that justified it.
| Memory indicator | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Micron capex | $7.10B | FQ3 2026 | Micron Q3 FY26 release |
| Micron revenue | $41.46B | FQ3 2026 | Micron Q3 FY26 release |
| Micron FY2026 capex guidance | above $25B | FY2026 | Micron Form 10-Q |
| SK hynix revenue | 79,318.7bn won | 2Q26 | SK hynix Q2 2026 release |
| SK hynix operating profit | 60,542.6bn won | 2Q26 | SK hynix Q2 2026 release |
| SEMI memory equipment spending growth | +29% | 2026 | SEMI 300mm Fab Outlook Q2 2026 |
Mia Scarlett: Capital intensity falling during the best pricing environment in memory’s history is not discipline. It is arithmetic outrunning intent. The line to watch is fiscal 2027 capex against fiscal 2027 pricing, because that is where the two curves cross, and memory has crossed them badly before.
Which Chipmakers Are Cutting Capex in 2026?
The mature-node and analog side of the industry is running the opposite playbook, and it is visible in the filings rather than in any forecast.
Texas Instruments spent $1.19 billion in the first six months of 2026 against $2.43 billion in the same period of 2025, a 51.0% reduction, with trailing twelve month capex of $3.3 billion and full-year 2026 spending guided to $2 billion to $3 billion. Its H1 cash flow also carried $1.104 billion of CHIPS Act incentive proceeds and a $301 million investment tax credit benefit, meaning the net cash cost of its remaining capex is lower still.
GlobalFoundries is the counterexample inside the same cohort, at 22.8% of revenue, and the destination explains it: silicon photonics and silicon germanium capacity aimed at optical networking inside AI data centres, where its communications infrastructure and data centre revenue grew 62% year over year. Mature node is not one behaviour. It is capacity being redirected toward the only end market that is bidding.
Intel sits between the two poles at 16.4%, with more than $20 billion guided for 2026 and management flagging 2027 spending significantly above that. The cash consequence is already visible: adjusted free cash flow of negative $8.419 billion in the second quarter alone. Intel’s first-half additions to property, plant and equipment totalled $7.615 billion, below the $10.695 billion of the prior-year period, so the guided increase is back-end loaded into the second half and beyond.
Where Is Semiconductor Capex Going Geographically in 2026?
SEMI’s Q2 2026 World Fab Forecast puts China as the largest single equipment spending market in 2026 and the largest installed capacity holder in both 2026 and 2027. The growth rates, however, belong elsewhere:
| Region | 2026 equipment spending growth | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Europe and Middle East | +199% | SEMI World Fab Forecast Q2 2026 |
| Americas | +109% | SEMI World Fab Forecast Q2 2026 |
| China | largest absolute market | SEMI World Fab Forecast Q2 2026 |
Triple-digit regional growth off a small base is not the same claim as leadership, and SEMI does not make it. Two of the three fastest-growing regions are the two with the most aggressive incentive regimes. Project-level detail for individual builds sits in the Semiconductor Fab Investment Tracker, and the subsidy mechanics are covered in CHIPS Act statistics.
Is US Fab Construction Spending Still Growing?
No, and this is the finding most likely to be missed by anyone reading equipment forecasts alone.
US total manufacturing construction spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $169.8 billion in July 2026, down from $179.8 billion in March 2026, a 5.6% decline in four months, according to Census Bureau data published through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The series covers all manufacturing rather than semiconductors alone, so it is a proxy, and Axis Intelligence Research treats it as one.
The pattern it describes is a rotation from concrete to tools. Shells poured during the 2023 to 2025 construction wave are now being filled, and equipment orders are the expenditure that follows a completed cleanroom. Equipment spending rising 24% while construction spending falls is exactly what the late phase of a build cycle looks like, and it also means the equipment number has a natural ceiling set by how many shells exist. Broader factory-floor context sits in US manufacturing statistics.
How Much of Chip Capex Is Funded by Governments?
Enough to change the returns math, and it is disclosed unevenly.
Texas Instruments received $1.104 billion of CHIPS Act incentive proceeds in the first half of 2026 and used $301 million of investment tax credit to reduce income taxes payable. Intel recorded $167 million of proceeds from capital-related government incentives in its first-half cash flow. GlobalFoundries signed a letter of intent with the US Department of Commerce in July 2026 for a $300 million award.
Micron’s capex guidance is stated net of government incentives, TSMC’s is not, and Intel reports incentives as a separate cash flow line. According to Axis Intelligence Research, this is the single largest obstacle to comparing capex figures across the industry: three companies, three definitions, and the gap between gross and net capex can exceed a full percentage point of capital intensity. The SCIS panel uses each company’s own definition and labels it in the dataset rather than forcing a common basis that the filings do not support.
Methodology
Collection. Axis Intelligence Research fetched and read every source document on September 11, 2026. Company figures come from SEC filings, company earnings releases and company-hosted earnings materials. Forecast figures come from SEMI’s own report pages, which publish edition-dated highlights. No figure in this article originates from a model’s memory, from a third-party compilation or from an aggregator.
SCIS construction. Capital intensity is capital expenditure divided by revenue for the same reporting period, per company, using each company’s own definition of capital expenditure as disclosed. SCIS is the maximum minus the minimum across the panel, in percentage points. The panel aggregate is total panel capex divided by total panel revenue, which is a revenue-weighted figure by construction. Currency conversion is applied only where a company discloses the rate in the same document, which in this edition applies solely to TSMC.
Panel membership. A company enters the panel when it publishes capex and revenue for the same period. SK hynix meets the size threshold but does not disclose quarterly capital expenditure in its earnings release, so it is excluded and its absence is recorded in the dataset. Samsung Electronics reports capital expenditure on a group basis that blends the semiconductor division with consumer businesses, so a divisional capital intensity is not computable from the release and is not estimated.
Declined calculation. Axis Intelligence Research declined to publish an industry-wide capital intensity ratio dividing global capex by global semiconductor revenue. The two figures come from different methodologies, different reporting calendars and different universes of companies, and the quotient would carry a precision it does not have. That row is retained in the dataset with data_type = retracted and the reasoning attached.
Reporting-period mismatch. Micron’s fiscal third quarter ended May 28, 2026; the other four panel members report on calendar quarters ending late June 2026. The panel is defined as most recent reported quarter rather than a fixed calendar window, and that definition is part of the metric.
About This Dataset
This dataset covers semiconductor capital expenditure, capital intensity and fab equipment spending for 2026, combining company-reported capex and revenue from five publicly reporting chipmakers with SEMI equipment spending forecasts and US Census construction data. It is intended for financial analysts, journalists, equipment suppliers, policy researchers and anyone modelling the semiconductor investment cycle.
Every row carries its source organisation, source document, URL, retrieval date, primary-source flag and, where Axis Intelligence Research computed the value, the formula used.
License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). Copy, adapt and redistribute with credit to Axis Intelligence Research and a link to this page.
Dataset: Semiconductor Capex Statistics 2026 (CSV, CC BY 4.0)
Cite This Research
APA. Axis Intelligence Research, & Scarlett, M. (2026, September 12). Semiconductor capex statistics 2026: What every revenue dollar buys in fab capacity [Data set]. Axis Intelligence Research. https://axis-intelligence.com/semiconductor-capex-statistics/
MLA. Axis Intelligence Research, and Mia Scarlett. “Semiconductor Capex Statistics 2026: What Every Revenue Dollar Buys in Fab Capacity.” Axis Intelligence Research, 12 Sept. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/semiconductor-capex-statistics/.
Chicago. Axis Intelligence Research, and Mia Scarlett. “Semiconductor Capex Statistics 2026: What Every Revenue Dollar Buys in Fab Capacity.” Axis Intelligence Research, September 12, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/semiconductor-capex-statistics/.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a normal capital intensity for a semiconductor company?
There is no single normal, which is the point of measuring the spread. In the most recent reported quarter, leading-edge foundry ran at 39.0% of revenue, specialty foundry at 22.8%, memory at 17.1%, integrated logic at 16.4% and analog at 9.4%. A useful working rule from the filings: companies building new process nodes run above 30%, companies filling existing capacity run below 15%.
Does semiconductor capex include the cost of building the fab, or only the equipment?
Both, in company reporting. A chipmaker’s capital expenditure line covers land, buildings, cleanroom construction and process tools together. SEMI’s fab equipment forecasts cover only the tools, which is why the $152 billion equipment figure and the sum of company capex budgets are not the same quantity and should never be compared directly.
Why is TSMC’s capex guidance quoted in a range instead of a fixed number?
Because capital expenditure is recognised on tool delivery and acceptance, not on order. A tool ordered in November that arrives in January moves several hundred million dollars between fiscal years without any change in strategy. TSMC’s 2026 range of $60 billion to $64 billion reflects that timing band, and the same mechanic explains why quarterly capex swings more than annual capex.
How does the CHIPS Act investment tax credit change reported capex?
It does not change the gross capex line. It appears elsewhere, as proceeds from capital-related government incentives in the cash flow statement or as a reduction of income taxes payable. Texas Instruments disclosed $1.104 billion of incentive proceeds and $301 million of investment tax credit benefit in the first half of 2026, none of which reduces the capex figure itself.
Is the 2026 semiconductor capex cycle broad-based or concentrated?
Concentrated. The Semiconductor Capital Intensity Spread of 29.6 points is the direct measure: leading-edge logic and memory are absorbing the spending while analog capex halved year over year at Texas Instruments. Aggregate industry forecasts describe a boom, and the filings describe two divergent cycles running at once.
Why is US factory construction spending falling if chip investment is at a record?
Because construction and equipment are sequential, not simultaneous. Buildings poured between 2023 and 2025 are now receiving tools, so equipment spending peaks after construction spending rolls over. US manufacturing construction was at a $169.8 billion annual rate in July 2026, down 5.6% from March.
Which semiconductor capex figure should a journalist cite for 2026?
Specify the scope. For all front-end equipment across wafer sizes, cite SEMI’s $152 billion for 2026. For 300mm front-end tools only, cite $142 billion. For company spending, cite the company’s own guidance and its date, because 2026 guidance has been revised upward mid-year at TSMC and at Intel.
Where can the underlying numbers be checked?
Every figure in this article exists as a row in the accompanying CSV with its source URL and retrieval date, and every company figure traces to a filing or an earnings document. Corrections can be sent to [email protected].