Social Security Statistics 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: David Park | Last updated: October 11, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
Social Security paid 71.5 million beneficiaries in August 2026, and the average retired worker received $2,087.52 a month, according to the SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot. Axis Intelligence Research finds Medicare Part B absorbed 32.0% of the average retiree’s 2026 COLA, up from 16.6% in 2024.
Quick Answer
Social Security serves 71.5 million people (August 2026) at an average retired-worker benefit of $2,087.52. The retirement trust fund (OASI) is projected to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, when 78% of scheduled benefits would be payable. According to Axis Intelligence Research, that equals a $459.25 monthly cut for today’s average retiree.
Key Findings
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, the average retired worker kept only $38.10 of a $56 COLA increase in January 2026 after the $17.90 Medicare Part B premium increase, a Net COLA Retention Rate of 68.0%.
- A bigger COLA delivered a smaller raise: the 2.8% COLA for 2026 left retirees $38.10 net, versus $38.70 from the 2.5% COLA for 2025, per Axis Intelligence Research calculations from SSA and CMS fact sheets.
- The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects OASI reserve depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032 and combined OASDI depletion in the third quarter of 2034, with 78% and 83% of benefits payable.
- Axis Intelligence Research estimates that an across-the-board cut at OASI depletion would remove $5,511 a year from the August 2026 average retired-worker benefit of $2,087.52 a month.
- Retired-worker beneficiaries grew 3.01% between August 2025 and August 2026 while disabled-worker beneficiaries fell 1.5%, according to Axis Intelligence Research analysis of SSA monthly snapshots.
How Many People Receive Social Security in 2026?
Social Security paid benefits to 71,499,000 people in August 2026, up from 70,073,000 in August 2025, according to the SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot for August 2026 and the August 2025 edition. That is a net gain of 1,426,000 beneficiaries in twelve months, or 2.04%.
Retired workers make up 76.9% of the rolls. The 2026 Trustees Report highlights put the number of covered workers paying payroll taxes in 2025 at about 185 million, and the Trustees summary refines that to 184.7 million.
Social Security beneficiaries by type, August 2026
| Beneficiary type | Beneficiaries (thousands) | Average monthly benefit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| All OASDI beneficiaries | 71,499 | $1,941.76 | SSA Snapshot, Aug 2026 |
| Retired workers | 54,947 | $2,087.52 | SSA Snapshot, Aug 2026 |
| Disabled workers | 6,975 | $1,635.90 | SSA Snapshot, Aug 2026 |
| Nondisabled widow(er)s | 3,502 | $1,934.37 | SSA Snapshot, Aug 2026 |
| Spouses of retired workers | 2,096 | $986.70 | SSA Snapshot, Aug 2026 |
| Children of deceased workers | 1,982 | n/a in this table | SSA Snapshot, Aug 2026 |
| Children of disabled workers | 893 | n/a in this table | SSA Snapshot, Aug 2026 |
| Children of retired workers | 734 | n/a in this table | SSA Snapshot, Aug 2026 |
Source: SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot. Data: CSV rows for August 2026 beneficiaries.
Which Social Security groups are growing, and which are shrinking?
| Group | Aug 2025 (thousands) | Aug 2026 (thousands) | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All beneficiaries | 70,073 | 71,499 | +2.04% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA Snapshots |
| Retired workers | 53,342 | 54,947 | +3.01% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA Snapshots |
| Disabled workers | 7,081 | 6,975 | -1.5% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA Snapshots |
| SSI recipients | 7,406 | 7,306 | n/a | SSA Snapshots |
Retirees added 1,605,000 people over the year. Disabled workers lost 106,000. The program is getting older and more retirement-heavy at the same time, which matters for the trust fund math below: retirement benefits are paid from OASI, the fund with the earlier depletion date.
The SSA Fast Facts & Figures 2026 adds the demographic texture: 58.3 million beneficiaries were 65 or older in December 2025, women were 55% of adult beneficiaries, and the average retired-worker beneficiary was 74.4 years old in 2025, up from 72.4 in 1960. The average disabled-worker beneficiary was 56.2.
David Park’s read: The question I hear most is some version of “will it still be there for me?” Here is the hard number to hold onto: the program added 1.4 million beneficiaries in a single year and paid $138.8 billion in August alone. A program that size does not vanish. What can change is the size of the check, and that is where the rest of this page focuses.
What Is the Average Social Security Check in 2026?
The average retired-worker benefit was $2,087.52 a month in August 2026, up 3.94% from $2,008.31 a year earlier, according to the SSA monthly snapshots. Across all beneficiary types the average was $1,941.76, up 4.12%.
Because the COLA itself was 2.8%, the rest of that growth reflects a changing mix of who is on the rolls, not a bigger raise for any individual retiree. Read year-over-year averages as a portrait of the caseload, not as a pay slip.
Average Social Security benefit by household type, January 2026
| Household type | Before 2.8% COLA | After 2.8% COLA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| All retired workers | $2,015 | $2,071 | SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet |
| Aged couple, both receiving | $3,120 | $3,208 | SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet |
| Widowed mother and two children | n/a | $3,898 | SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet |
| Aged widow(er) alone | $1,867 | $1,919 | SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet |
| Disabled worker, spouse and children | n/a | $2,937 | SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet |
| All disabled workers | $1,586 | $1,630 | SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet |
Source: SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshots.
Maximum Social Security benefit and SSI payment in 2026
The maximum benefit for a worker claiming at full retirement age is $4,152 a month in 2026, up from $4,018, per the SSA 2026 fact sheet. That maximum is 2.0 times the average retired-worker benefit after the COLA.
Supplemental Security Income is a separate, means-tested program. The federal payment standard is $994 a month for an individual and $1,491 for a couple in 2026. The average SSI payment was $738.73 in August 2026, up 2.91% from $717.84, according to the SSA snapshots.
Total monthly OASDI benefits reached $138,833 million in August 2026, up 6.24% year over year. According to Axis Intelligence Research, that is an annualized run rate of $1.666 trillion, against $1.60 trillion paid in calendar 2025 per the SSA Trustees press release.
For context on what that check has to cover, our US household debt statistics track the obligations older households carry into retirement, and our credit card debt statistics break down revolving balances by generation.
How Much of the COLA Does Medicare Part B Take Back?
This is the number most COLA coverage skips. A COLA is announced as a percentage of the benefit, while the Medicare Part B premium resets as a flat dollar amount in the same January. For a beneficiary enrolled in Part B, the raise that matters is the COLA minus the premium increase.
Axis Intelligence Research built the Net COLA Retention Rate (NCRR) to measure exactly that share.
Definition: The Net COLA Retention Rate (NCRR) is the percentage of a beneficiary’s gross COLA dollar increase that remains after the change in the Medicare Part B standard monthly premium for the same year.
Formula: NCRR = (gross COLA dollars – Part B standard premium change) / gross COLA dollars x 100
Worked example, 2026, average retired worker: SSA estimates the average retired-worker benefit rose from $2,015 to $2,071 with the 2.8% COLA, a gross increase of $56. CMS set the 2026 Part B standard premium at $202.90, up $17.90 from $185.00. Net raise: $56 – $17.90 = $38.10. NCRR: $38.10 / $56 = 68.0%. Part B absorbed the remaining 32.0%.
Net COLA Retention Rate for the average retired worker, 2023 to 2026
| Year | COLA | Gross COLA dollars | Part B premium change | Net raise | NCRR | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8.7% | $146 | -$5.20 | $151.20 | 103.6% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA 2023 fact sheet, CMS 2023 fact sheet |
| 2024 | 3.2% | $59 | +$9.80 | $49.20 | 83.4% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA 2024 fact sheet, CMS 2024 fact sheet |
| 2025 | 2.5% | $49 | +$10.30 | $38.70 | 79.0% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA 2025 fact sheet, CMS 2025 fact sheet |
| 2026 | 2.8% | $56 | +$17.90 | $38.10 | 68.0% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA 2026 fact sheet, CMS 2026 fact sheet |
COLA percentages follow the SSA COLA series, where each COLA takes effect with December benefits and is paid in January. Source: Axis Intelligence Research from SSA and CMS fact sheets.
Two things stand out. In 2023 the NCRR exceeded 100% because the Part B premium fell $5.20 from $170.10, so retirees kept more than their COLA. And from 2024 to 2026 the rate fell every year, to the lowest reading in the series. According to Axis Intelligence Research, the 2026 COLA was larger in percentage terms than the 2025 COLA, yet the average retiree’s net monthly raise was 60 cents smaller.
Over the full four-year span, the average retired worker received $310 a month in gross COLA increases while the Part B premium rose $32.80, a cumulative NCRR of 89.4%. The premium grew 19.28% between 2022 and 2026, and 9.68% in the latest year alone. It now equals 9.8% of the average retired-worker benefit, up from 9.0% in 2023.
NCRR by beneficiary type, January 2026
| Beneficiary type | Gross COLA dollars | Part B premium change | Net raise | NCRR | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All retired workers | $56 | $17.90 | $38.10 | 68.0% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA and CMS |
| Aged widow(er) alone | $52 | $17.90 | $34.10 | 65.6% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA and CMS |
| Aged couple, both receiving | $88 | $35.80 (two enrollees) | $52.20 | 59.3% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA and CMS |
| All disabled workers | $44 | $17.90 | $26.10 | 59.3% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA and CMS |
The premium is a flat dollar amount, so it bites hardest where the benefit is smallest. A disabled worker on Medicare kept 59.3% of the 2026 raise; a couple paying two premiums kept the same share. According to Axis Intelligence Research, the lower the benefit, the lower the NCRR, a regressive pattern the headline COLA percentage hides completely.
David Park’s read: If your January deposit went up less than the COLA headline promised, you did not misread the letter. For the average retiree, roughly one dollar in three of the 2026 raise went straight to the Part B premium. When you budget for 2027, budget from the net number, not the announced percentage.
When is the 2027 COLA announced?
The 2027 COLA depends on the September 2026 Consumer Price Index, which the BLS release calendar schedules for October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern. The COLA formula uses the CPI-W index for urban wage earners, not the headline CPI-U.
For a sense of the inflation backdrop, headline CPI-U rose 3.4% in the twelve months to August 2026, from an index of 323.976 to 334.980, per BLS Table 1. That is above the 2.8% COLA retirees received in January 2026. Axis Intelligence Research does not publish a 2027 COLA estimate on this page because the CPI-W index levels could not be opened directly from BLS during production; the dataset records that decision as a declined calculation. The NCRR for 2027 will be computed when CMS publishes the 2027 Part B premium.
When Will Social Security Run Out of Money?
The combined Social Security trust funds (OASDI) are projected to be depleted in the third quarter of 2034, after which incoming taxes would cover 83% of scheduled benefits, according to the 2026 Trustees Report highlights, released June 9, 2026. That payable share declines gradually to 65% by 2100.
OASI vs OASDI: why 2032 matters more than 2034 for retirees
The 2034 date is the one in most headlines, but it describes a hypothetical merger of two legally separate funds. Retirement and survivor benefits are paid from the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which the Trustees project will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78% of scheduled benefits payable at that point and 62% by 2100.
The Disability Insurance (DI) fund, by contrast, is projected to stay positive through 2100, per the SSA press release. So the 2034 date effectively assumes Congress lets the healthy DI fund cover part of the OASI gap. Without that action, the retiree cliff arrives about two years earlier.
From today, that leaves 6 years until projected OASI depletion and 8 years until combined depletion.
How much would Social Security benefits be cut at depletion?
| Scenario | Payable share | Monthly cut | Annual cut | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OASI only, Q4 2032 (average retired worker) | 78% | $459.25 | $5,511.00 | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
| Combined OASDI, Q3 2034 (average retired worker) | 83% | $354.88 | $4,258.56 | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
| OASI only (aged couple, both receiving) | 78% | $705.76 | n/a | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
Formula: August 2026 average retired-worker benefit of $2,087.52 x (1 – payable share). The couple scenario applies the same formula to SSA’s January 2026 estimate of $3,208. These are illustrations in today’s dollars; an actual shortfall would apply to scheduled benefits in the depletion year, which will be higher in nominal terms.
At the program level, Axis Intelligence Research estimates that a 17% shortfall applied to August 2026 total benefits would equal $23,602 million in a single month.
Our retirement savings statistics cover the private side of the same equation: which workers have a workplace plan to fill this gap, scored with the Workplace Retirement Exclusion Index (WREX). For where households stand overall, see our US net worth percentiles.
Why Did the Social Security Outlook Get Worse in 2026?
The 75-year actuarial deficit rose to 4.42% of taxable payroll in the 2026 report, from 3.82% in the 2025 report, according to the Trustees Report projections section. According to Axis Intelligence Research, that is a 15.7% deterioration in a single year.
What changed in the 75-year actuarial balance, 2025 to 2026 report
| Driver | Change (% of taxable payroll) | Trustees explanation | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic data and assumptions | -0.44 | Ultimate fertility cut from 1.90 to 1.75 children per woman; immigration and emigration changes | Trustees II.D |
| Legislation | -0.16 | One Big Beautiful Bill Act lowered income from taxation of benefits | Trustees II.D |
| Valuation period | -0.07 | Window now ends in 2100 | Trustees II.D |
| Methods and programmatic data | -0.05 | Not itemized | Trustees II.D |
| Disability data and assumptions | +0.02 | Not itemized | Trustees II.D |
| Economic data and assumptions | +0.10 | Not itemized | Trustees II.D |
| Total | -0.60 | Trustees II.D |
Source: 2026 Trustees Report, Section II.D.
Demographics account for 73.3% of the total deterioration, according to Axis Intelligence Research. The single largest assumption change was the lower long-run fertility rate: fewer future workers means fewer future payroll taxes, even though no one alive today is affected yet.
The legislative line is the one with a direct household connection. The Trustees tie it to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and lower trust fund income from taxation of benefits. Our US tax statistics track how that law reshaped federal receipts across every source.
David Park’s read: Fertility assumptions sound abstract, but they are the reason the date moved. The program pays today’s retirees with today’s workers’ paychecks. When the Trustees expect fewer of those paychecks in the 2050s, the long-range gap widens now, on paper, years before anyone’s check changes.
Where Does Social Security’s Money Come From?
Social Security took in $1,449 billion in 2025 and spent $1,609 billion, a cost overrun of $160.2 billion, according to the Trustees summary. The SSA press release breaks the income down.
Social Security income and cost, 2025
| Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Net payroll tax contributions | $1,320 billion | SSA Trustees press release |
| Income taxation of benefits | $58 billion | SSA Trustees press release |
| Interest on reserves | $69 billion | SSA Trustees press release |
| Total income | $1,449 billion | Trustees highlights |
| Total cost | $1,609 billion | Trustees highlights |
| Administrative cost | $7 billion (0.4% of expenditures) | SSA Trustees press release |
| Non-interest cash shortfall | $229 billion | Axis Intelligence Research calculation |
Strip out interest and the picture sharpens. Non-interest income was $1,380 billion ($1,449 billion minus $69 billion), so according to Axis Intelligence Research the program’s operating gap from taxes alone was $229 billion in 2025. The Trustees note cost has exceeded non-interest income since 2010, and total income since 2021.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, net payroll tax contributions equal about $7,147 per covered worker per year ($1,320 billion / 184.7 million workers), employer and employee shares combined. Payroll taxes dominate this program the same way individual and payroll receipts dominate federal revenue overall, a split detailed in our US tax statistics; the business side of the ledger is in our corporate tax statistics.
Social Security trust fund reserves
Combined reserves fell from $2,721 billion at the start of 2025 to $2,561 billion at year end, a $160 billion drawdown. At the end of 2025, OASI held $2,338.3 billion and DI $223.0 billion. The reserves earned an effective 2.6% interest rate in 2025, and the trust fund ratio stood at 151% of annual cost at the start of 2026.
For 2026, the Trustees project an income rate of 12.91% of taxable payroll against a cost rate of 15.37%, a gap of 2.46 percentage points. Cost rises to 20.45% of payroll by 2085. Measured against the economy, OASDI cost is 5.3% of GDP in 2026, peaking near 6.9% in 2084; Social Security and Medicare together cost 9.4% of GDP this year.
How Many Workers Pay for Each Social Security Beneficiary?
There were about 2.6 covered workers for every OASDI beneficiary in 2025, according to the Trustees projections. The ratio held between 3.2 and 3.4 from 1974 through 2008 and is projected to fall to about 1.9 by 2075.
| Period | Workers per beneficiary | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1974 to 2008 | 3.2 to 3.4 | Trustees Report II.D |
| 2025 | 2.6 | Trustees Report II.D |
| 2075 (projected) | 1.9 | Trustees Report II.D |
Source: 2026 Trustees Report, Section II.D.
This ratio is the plain-language version of everything above. A pay-as-you-go system with 2.6 workers per beneficiary needs a higher tax rate, lower benefits or new revenue than one with 3.2 to 3.4, and the Trustees expect the ratio to keep falling for half a century.
Social Security Rules and Limits for 2026
| Parameter | 2025 | 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLA | 2.5% | 2.8% | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Maximum taxable earnings | $176,100 | $184,500 | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Employee FICA rate | 7.65% | 7.65% | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Self-employed rate | 15.30% | 15.30% | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Quarter of coverage | n/a | $1,890 | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Earnings test, under FRA | n/a | $24,480/yr | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Earnings test, year reaching FRA | n/a | $65,160/yr | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| SGA, non-blind | n/a | $1,690/mo | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| SGA, blind | n/a | $2,830/mo | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Trial work period | n/a | $1,210/mo | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Maximum benefit at FRA | $4,018/mo | $4,152/mo | SSA 2026 fact sheet |
| Medicare Part B premium | $185.00 | $202.90 | CMS 2026 fact sheet |
| Medicare Part B deductible | $257 | $283 | CMS 2026 fact sheet |
The taxable maximum rose $8,400 to $184,500. Earnings above that cap owe no Social Security payroll tax in 2026. The 2026 Part A inpatient deductible is $1,736, and income-related Part B surcharges start above $109,000 of modified adjusted gross income for individuals, per CMS, affecting roughly 8% of Part B enrollees.
Full retirement age 67 arrives in 2027
Full retirement age is 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later, per the SSA retirement age chart. The 1960 birth cohort turns 67 in 2027, making it the first group to reach the final step of the age increase. People born in 1959 have a full retirement age of 66 and 10 months.
Claiming at 62 now means a permanent 30.00% reduction for the 1960-and-later cohorts, or 70% of the full benefit, versus 29.17% for those born in 1959. The earliest claiming age remains 62.
How Many People Does Social Security Keep Out of Poverty?
Social Security moved 28.8 million people out of poverty under the Supplemental Poverty Measure in 2025, making it the largest antipoverty program in the country, according to the Census Bureau’s Poverty in the United States: 2025, released September 15, 2026. The SPM poverty rate was 13.1% and the official rate 10.2%.
The program also closed a long-running coverage dispute. The SSA reported completing over 3.1 million payments under the Social Security Fairness Act, five months ahead of schedule, in a July 7, 2025 release.
David Park’s read: 28.8 million is the number that reframes the depletion debate for me. A 22% cut is not a rounding error for a household where Social Security is the main income. That is why the dollar figure, $459.25 a month for the average retiree, matters more than the percentage when you are planning.
Methodology
Collection. Axis Intelligence Research assembled this dataset on October 11, 2026 from primary federal sources only: the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (highlights, projections and summary pages), SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshots for August 2025 and August 2026, SSA COLA fact sheets for 2023 through 2026, the SSA COLA series, CMS Medicare premium fact sheets for 2023 through 2026, the Census Bureau P60-290 poverty report, SSA Fast Facts & Figures 2026, the SSA retirement age chart, and BLS CPI publications. Every document was fetched during production and every figure is logged with its URL and retrieval date.
Net COLA Retention Rate (NCRR). NCRR = (gross COLA dollars – Part B standard premium change) / gross COLA dollars x 100. Gross COLA dollars are SSA’s estimated January average benefit after the COLA minus the estimate before it, by beneficiary type. The Part B change is the CMS standard monthly premium for the year minus the prior year’s. For couples, the Part B change is doubled for two enrollees. Part B absorption is 100 minus NCRR. The cumulative NCRR sums four years of gross COLA dollars ($146 + $59 + $49 + $56 = $310) against the total premium change from 2022 to 2026 ($202.90 – $170.10 = $32.80).
Depletion cut estimates. Monthly cut = benefit x (1 – payable share), using the Trustees’ 78% (OASI) and 83% (OASDI) payable shares, applied to the August 2026 average retired-worker benefit and to SSA’s January 2026 aged-couple estimate. Annual cut = monthly cut x 12.
Other Axis calculations. Year-over-year changes divide August 2026 by August 2025 snapshot values. Non-interest shortfall = total cost minus (total income minus interest). Payroll tax per covered worker = net payroll tax contributions / covered workers. Run rate = August monthly benefits x 12. Every formula is repeated in the CSV method_note column.
Scope. NCRR uses the standard Part B premium. Enrollees who pay income-related adjustments (roughly 8% of Part B enrollees, per CMS) or whose premium differs from the standard amount for other reasons experience different net raises. SSA’s COLA-table averages are SSA estimates for January, not snapshot observations. Depletion cuts are illustrations in 2026 dollars, not forecasts of a specific future check. Two calculations were declined and published as retracted rows: a 2027 COLA estimate (CPI-W index levels could not be opened at the source) and a share-of-aged-income figure (the 2026 SSA chartbook does not publish one).
About This Dataset
The dataset behind this page, social-security-statistics-2026.csv, contains 292 rows: every number in the article plus the inputs and outputs of each Axis Intelligence Research calculation, with source organization, document, URL, as-of date, retrieval date, primary-source flag, calculation flag, method note and data type on every row.
License: CC BY 4.0. You may reuse, adapt and republish with attribution to Axis Intelligence Research and a link to this page.
How to Cite This Page
APA: Axis Intelligence Research. (2026, October 11). Social Security statistics 2026: 71.5 million beneficiaries, a late-2032 cliff for retirees, and how much of each COLA Medicare takes back. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/social-security-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research. “Social Security Statistics 2026: 71.5 Million Beneficiaries, a Late-2032 Cliff for Retirees, and How Much of Each COLA Medicare Takes Back.” Axis Intelligence, 11 Oct. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/social-security-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research. “Social Security Statistics 2026: 71.5 Million Beneficiaries, a Late-2032 Cliff for Retirees, and How Much of Each COLA Medicare Takes Back.” Axis Intelligence, October 11, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/social-security-statistics/.
Dataset: Axis Intelligence Research, Social Security Statistics 2026 dataset, 2026. CC BY 4.0.
Social Security Questions Answered With 2026 Data
Will Social Security checks be cut in 2032 or 2034?
Neither date is a scheduled cut; both are projections if Congress does nothing. The 2026 Trustees Report projects the retirement fund (OASI) will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, leaving income for 78% of scheduled benefits. The 2034 date applies only if the OASI and DI funds are combined, with 83% payable.
How much of the 2026 COLA did Medicare Part B take?
For the average retired worker, the 2.8% COLA added $56 a month and the Part B premium rose $17.90, to $202.90. According to Axis Intelligence Research, Part B absorbed 32.0% of the raise, leaving a Net COLA Retention Rate (NCRR) of 68.0%. For the average disabled worker, the NCRR was 59.3%.
When will the 2027 Social Security COLA be announced?
The 2027 COLA is based on the September 2026 CPI-W, which BLS is scheduled to release on October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern. The net effect for retirees will not be known until CMS publishes the 2027 Part B premium; CMS released the 2026 premium on November 14, 2025.
What is the average Social Security retirement check right now?
The average retired-worker benefit was $2,087.52 a month in August 2026, according to the SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot. That is up 3.94% from $2,008.31 in August 2025, more than the 2.8% COLA because new retirees claim higher benefits than those leaving the rolls.
How much would the average retiree lose if the trust fund runs out?
Axis Intelligence Research estimates a $459.25 monthly cut, or $5,511 a year, if the 78% OASI payable share were applied to the August 2026 average retired-worker benefit. Under the combined 83% scenario, the cut would be $354.88 a month.
Do you pay Social Security tax on income above $184,500?
No. The 2026 maximum taxable earnings for Social Security is $184,500, up from $176,100. Wages above the cap owe no Social Security payroll tax for the year. The cap rose $8,400 from 2025.
Is full retirement age now 67?
Yes, for anyone born in 1960 or later. That cohort turns 67 in 2027. Claiming at 62 permanently reduces the benefit by 30.00%, to 70% of the full amount. For people born in 1959, full retirement age is 66 and 10 months.
Is the number of people on Social Security disability falling?
Yes, in the latest year. Disabled-worker beneficiaries fell from 7,081,000 in August 2025 to 6,975,000 in August 2026, a 1.5% decline, while retired workers grew 3.01%. The Trustees still project the DI trust fund to remain solvent through 2100.
Why did the Social Security shortfall get bigger in 2026?
The 75-year actuarial deficit rose from 3.82% to 4.42% of taxable payroll. The Trustees attribute -0.44 points to demographic assumptions, mainly a lower fertility rate of 1.75, and -0.16 points to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s effect on taxation-of-benefits income.