Average Tax Refund 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Sarah Davis | Last updated: October 13, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
The average federal tax refund reached $3,276 by May 8, 2026, up 11.5% from $2,939 a year earlier and the highest early-May reading in IRS weekly data going back to 2009. Axis Intelligence Research finds that in April 2026 dollars, the same check ranks 15th of 18 seasons, 25.6% below the 2010 refund.
Quick Answer
The IRS issued 99,138,000 refunds worth $324.757 billion through May 8, 2026, an average of $3,276 per refund (IRS filing season statistics). According to Axis Intelligence Research, 65.2% of the $49.778 billion year-over-year increase came from bigger checks rather than more of them, and an average refund carried about $92.71 of forgone Treasury-bill interest.
Key Findings
- The average IRS refund was $3,276 through May 8, 2026, up 11.5% from $2,939 at the same point of the 2025 filing season, according to IRS weekly filing statistics.
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, the 2026 average refund is a nominal record for early May since 2009 but ranks 15th of 18 seasons once adjusted to April 2026 prices with CPI-U.
- Axis Intelligence Research’s Refund Size Lift (RSL) reads 65.2% for 2026: of the $49.778 billion gain in refund dollars, $32.473 billion came from larger refunds and $17.305 billion from more refunds.
- Axis Intelligence Research estimates the average 2026 refund represented $92.71 of interest the filer could have earned at the 2025 average three-month Treasury bill rate of 4.07%, held for 254 days.
- Refund dollars issued outside direct deposit fell from $11.253 billion (4.09%) by May 9, 2025 to $13 million by May 8, 2026, after Executive Order 14247 began phasing out paper refund checks, Axis Intelligence Research finds.
What Is the Average Tax Refund in 2026?
The average federal income tax refund was $3,276 as of the week ending May 8, 2026, according to the IRS’s filing season statistics for that week, the last weekly release of the spring season. The comparable figure on May 9, 2025 was $2,939, so the typical check grew by $337.
The bigger story is the pool of money. Total refunds reached $324.757 billion, up 18.1%, while the number of refunds rose a more modest 6.0%, from 93,569,000 to 99,138,000. Returns received actually slipped 0.6%, to 144,992,000. Fewer people filed by early May, but more of them got money back, and they got more of it.
2026 vs 2025 filing season: the full IRS scoreboard
| Metric (cumulative) | May 9, 2025 | May 8, 2026 | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns received | 145,855,000 | 144,992,000 | −0.6% | IRS |
| Returns processed | 143,556,000 | 143,925,000 | +0.3% | IRS |
| E-filed returns received | 139,496,000 | 141,046,000 | +1.1% | IRS |
| E-filed by tax professionals | 74,896,000 | 75,316,000 | +0.6% | IRS |
| E-filed, self-prepared | 64,601,000 | 65,730,000 | +1.7% | IRS |
| Number of refunds | 93,569,000 | 99,138,000 | +6.0% | IRS |
| Total amount refunded | $274.979B | $324.757B | +18.1% | IRS |
| Average refund | $2,939 | $3,276 | +11.5% | IRS |
| Direct deposit refunds (number) | 86,937,000 | 99,225,000 | +14.1% | IRS |
| Amount refunded by direct deposit | $263.726B | $324.744B | +23.1% | IRS |
| Average direct deposit refund | $3,034 | $3,273 | +7.9% | IRS |
| IRS.gov visits | 351,491,000 | 571,527,000 | +62.6% | IRS |
Source: IRS weekly filing season statistics, cumulative from season opening (Jan. 27, 2025 and Jan. 26, 2026).
Two derived figures sharpen the picture. According to Axis Intelligence Research, 97.3% of returns received by May 8, 2026 arrived electronically, against 95.6% a year earlier, and self-prepared filers accounted for 46.6% of e-filed returns. Households that file through a paid preparer can compare what that convenience costs in our tax preparation services cost data and the best tax software rankings.
Why the average refund changes week by week
The weekly average is not a stable number, and quoting it out of season misleads readers. On February 6, 2026, the IRS reported an average of just $2,290, because the PATH Act requires the agency to hold refunds that claim the earned income tax credit or the additional child tax credit until mid-February. Once those credit-heavy refunds were released, the average jumped to $3,804 by February 20, its high point of the season, then drifted down to $3,276 as larger volumes of smaller April refunds came in.
| Week ending | Refunds issued (cumulative) | Amount (cumulative) | Average refund | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | 7,403,000 | $16.95B | $2,290 | IRS weekly CSV |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 28,738,000 | $109.33B | $3,804 | IRS weekly CSV |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 50,391,000 | $182.59B | $3,623 | IRS weekly CSV |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 78,050,000 | $265.17B | $3,397 | IRS weekly CSV |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 90,411,000 | $296.07B | $3,275 | IRS weekly CSV |
| May 8, 2026 | 99,138,000 | $324.757B | $3,276 | IRS |
Sarah Davis’s read: Every February, someone publishes “refunds are up 14%” off a week that excludes most low-income families by law. Then April arrives and the number sags. The only fair comparison is the same week, same law, same stage of the season, which is why every year-over-year figure on this page is May against May.
Why Are Tax Refunds Bigger in 2026?
Total refund dollars rose $49.778 billion through early May, the largest year-over-year early-May gain in IRS weekly data since 2009, according to Axis Intelligence Research. Two forces can produce that: more households getting refunds, or each household getting more. The split matters to anyone forecasting deposits, card paydowns or spring spending, so Axis Intelligence Research built a metric to separate them.
What is the Refund Size Lift (RSL)?
The Refund Size Lift (RSL) is the share of the year-over-year change in total refund dollars that comes from larger average refunds rather than from a larger number of refunds.
Formula: RSL = size effect ÷ total dollar change × 100, where size effect = (average refund₁ − average refund₀) × (refunds₀ + refunds₁) ÷ 2, and count effect = (refunds₁ − refunds₀) × (average₀ + average₁) ÷ 2. The midpoint weighting makes the two effects add up exactly to the total change, with no unexplained residual. Averages are recomputed as amount ÷ number from the IRS totals, and every reading compares the IRS week closest to May 8 in each year.
Worked example, 2026: the average refund (amount ÷ number) rose from $2,938.78 to $3,275.81. Size effect: $32.473 billion. Count effect: $17.305 billion. Total: $49.778 billion. RSL = 65.2%.
RSL readings by season
| Season (early May vs prior year) | Change in refund dollars | Size effect | Count effect | RSL | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 vs 2025 | +$49.778B | +$32.473B | +$17.305B | 65.2% | Axis calc. from IRS |
| 2025 vs 2024 | +$5.489B | +$6.566B | −$1.077B | 119.6% | Axis calc. from IRS |
| 2024 vs 2023 | +$6.600B | +$6.175B | +$0.425B | 93.6% | Axis calc. from IRS |
| 2022 vs 2021 | +$42.650B | +$14.508B | +$28.142B | 34.0% | Axis calc. from IRS |
| 2018 vs 2017 | +$3.270B | +$0.659B | +$2.611B | 20.2% | Axis calc. from IRS |
| 2017 vs 2016 | +$5.130B | +$4.038B | +$1.092B | 78.7% | Axis calc. from IRS |
RSL is published only when total refund dollars rose; above 100% means refund counts fell while check sizes rose. All components for 2010–2026 are in the CSV.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, 2026 is the first season since 2022 in which more refunds, not only bigger ones, added more than $1 billion to the early-May total. In 2025, refund counts were shrinking and size did all the work. In 2026, both engines ran at once.
How many filers claimed the new deductions?
Roughly 45% of individual returns filed in the 2026 season claimed at least one of the new benefits enacted in 2025 (no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on car loan interest, or the enhanced senior deduction), according to IRS release IR-2026-74 of June 5, 2026. The IRS put the average refund on those returns at “over $3,200” as of May 27.
That figure deserves a careful reading. The IRS published a floor, not a value, and the all-filer average three weeks earlier was already $3,276. The release therefore does not show returns claiming the new deductions running far ahead of everyone else. A broad lift across the filing population fits the data at least as well as a lift concentrated in tip and overtime earners, and the RSL’s sizable count effect points the same way. Axis Intelligence Research does not publish the per-deduction counts that circulated in April 2026, because they came from an unnamed official rather than a published IRS or Treasury table.
Sarah Davis’s read: A refund is a timing story before it is a tax-cut story. When rules change retroactively for a tax year but payroll withholding tables only catch up later, the difference shows up as a bigger check in spring. That is not free money; it is money that sat with Treasury instead of in your account. The next section puts a price on that.
Is the 2026 Average Tax Refund a Record? Adjusted for Inflation, No
In nominal dollars, yes: $3,276 is the highest early-May average refund in the IRS weekly series, which starts in 2009. Adjusted for prices, the 2026 check ranks 15th of 18 seasons, according to Axis Intelligence Research. The 2010 early-May average of $2,883 is worth $4,404 in April 2026 dollars, $1,128 more than this year’s refund.
Average tax refund by year, nominal and inflation-adjusted (early-May reading)
| Season | IRS week | Average refund (nominal) | In April 2026 dollars | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | May 1 | $2,674 | $4,176 | IRS weekly CSV; CPI-U via FRED |
| 2010 | May 7 | $2,883 | $4,404 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2011 | May 6 | $2,811 | $4,162 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2012 | May 11 | $2,704 | $3,914 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2013 | May 10 | $2,651 | $3,797 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2014 | May 9 | $2,693 | $3,783 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2015 | May 8 | $2,701 | $3,802 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2016 | May 6 | $2,731 | $3,801 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2017 | May 5 | $2,771 | $3,774 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2018 | May 11 | $2,778 | $3,692 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2019 | May 10 | $2,729 | $3,556 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2020* | May 8 | $2,779 | $3,610 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2021* | May 7 | $2,863 | $3,570 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2022 | May 6 | $3,025 | $3,484 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2023 | May 5 | $2,803 | $3,077 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2024 | May 10 | $2,869 | $3,047 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2025 | May 9 | $2,939 | $3,051 | IRS; CPI-U |
| 2026 | May 8 | $3,276 | $3,276 | IRS; CPI-U |
*Filing deadlines were postponed in 2020 and 2021, so those readings capture a different share of the season. Real values use the April CPI-U (not seasonally adjusted) of each year, deflated to the April 2026 index of 333.020.
The pattern is steady erosion followed by a partial rebound. Refunds lost purchasing power almost every year from 2010 to 2024, bottoming at $3,047 in 2024 in today’s dollars. The 2026 jump lifted the real refund back above its 2023 level ($3,077) but left it below 2022 ($3,484) and every season before it. Households weighing what the refund can actually pay down can set it against their balances in our credit card debt statistics and household debt statistics.
Sarah Davis’s read: “Record refund” headlines quote the nominal number because it is the one that moves the needle in a press release. The deflated series is the one that moves a grocery bill. A $3,276 refund in 2026 does what a $2,145 refund would have done in 2010, by the CPI’s arithmetic, and that is the honest yardstick.
(Arithmetic: $3,276 × 218.009 ÷ 333.020 = $2,145; the row is in the CSV under the 2010 deflator.)
How Much Interest Do You Lose on a Tax Refund?
Most refunds are overwithholding: money taken from paychecks during 2025 and returned in spring 2026, with no interest if the refund arrives on time. Axis Intelligence Research built the Refund Carry Value to put a dollar figure on that.
What is the Refund Carry Value (RCV)?
The Refund Carry Value (RCV) estimates the interest a filer gives up by holding an overwithholding-driven refund at the Treasury instead of in a short-term Treasury bill, from the midpoint of the withholding year to the dollar-weighted date refunds were paid.
Formula: RCV = average refund × average 3-month T-bill rate × holding days ÷ 365.
Inputs, 2026 season:
| Input | Value | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average refund | $3,276 | Through May 8, 2026 | IRS |
| 3-month T-bill rate, 2025 average | 4.07% | Mean of 12 monthly readings | Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED |
| Withholding midpoint | July 1, 2025 | Assumes overwithholding accrues evenly through 2025 | Axis assumption |
| Dollar-weighted refund date | March 12, 2026 | Weekly IRS dollar increments, each dated at mid-week | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| Holding period | 254 days | July 1, 2025 to March 12, 2026 | Axis calc. |
| RCV per average refund | $92.71 | $3,276 × 4.07% × 254 ÷ 365 | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
Applied to all $324.757 billion refunded by May 8, the same arithmetic gives a ceiling of about $9.19 billion. It is a ceiling because part of every refund pool is refundable credits such as the earned income tax credit, which were never withheld from a paycheck and so carry no lost interest.
Sarah Davis’s read: Ninety-three dollars sounds small until you look at who pays it. A household carrying a card balance through the year is not losing the T-bill rate on that refund; it is paying its card APR on money it lent the government for free. The fix is not exotic: the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator and a new W-4. The catch is behavioral. Plenty of families prefer the forced savings, and that preference has a measurable price.
When Do Tax Refunds Arrive? 2026 Refund Timing
Half of all refund dollars paid by early May had gone out by mid-March. According to Axis Intelligence Research, 49.5% of the season’s $324.757 billion had been issued by March 6, 2026 and 56.2% by March 13; the dollar-weighted average payment date was March 12. The 2026 season started a little slower than 2025: 42.1% of season-to-date dollars were out by February 27, 2026, against 45.4% by February 28, 2025.
Share of refund dollars issued, by week
| Week ending (2026) | Share of May 8 total | Comparable week (2025) | Share of May 9 total | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20 | 33.7% | Feb 21 | 37.2% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| Feb 27 | 42.1% | Feb 28 | 45.4% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| Mar 13 | 56.2% | Mar 14 | 59.3% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| Apr 10 | 81.7% | Apr 11 | 83.2% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| Apr 24 | 96.3% | Apr 25 | 96.6% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
The IRS says e-filed returns with direct deposit are typically refunded in less than 21 days when nothing goes wrong, while mailed refunds can take 6 weeks or longer (IR-2025-94).
How many tax refunds were delayed in 2026?
For most filers, the 2026 season ran on time. For a large minority it did not. The National Taxpayer Advocate’s FY2027 Objectives Report (IR-2026-79, June 24, 2026) documents:
| Refund delay indicator, 2026 filing season | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Individual returns suspended during processing | More than 14 million | National Taxpayer Advocate |
| Taxpayers whose refunds exceeded normal processing time | More than 1 million | National Taxpayer Advocate |
| Average wait for those delayed refunds | About 5½ weeks | National Taxpayer Advocate |
| Taxpayer Protection Program calls (identity verification) | About 2.4 million, 19% answered, 20-minute average hold | National Taxpayer Advocate |
| Identity theft victim assistance cases pending at season end | More than half a million | National Taxpayer Advocate |
| Typical time to resolve those cases | About 20 months | National Taxpayer Advocate |
| “Where’s My Refund?” checks during the season | About 346 million | National Taxpayer Advocate |
Phone metrics run through April 18, 2026.
The Advocate also counted 48.1 million calls to the IRS during the season, with only 21% answered by a telephone assistor and an average 14-minute hold, versus 8 minutes a year earlier.
Sarah Davis’s read: The distribution of pain is the point. An identity-theft hold of roughly 20 months is not a delay for a household living paycheck to paycheck; it is a missing paycheck. These cases skew toward filers with the least slack, which is exactly why lenders who underwrite against “expected refunds” should treat the IRS’s 21-day guideline as a median-case promise, not a guarantee.
Did the IRS Stop Paper Refund Checks? Direct Deposit in 2026
Largely, yes. Under Executive Order 14247, the IRS began phasing out paper refund checks for individuals on September 30, 2025, “to the extent permitted by law,” according to IR-2025-94. In the 2025 season, more than 93.5 million refunds were issued and 93% (almost 87 million) went by direct deposit; 7% arrived by mailed check. The IRS says paper checks are over 16 times more likely than electronic payments to be lost, stolen, altered or delayed.
The 2026 season shows the switch. The Taxpayer Advocate reports that about 98% of 2026 refunds were delivered by direct deposit.
The paper-check era in one series (Axis proxy)
The IRS weekly data report total refund dollars and direct-deposit dollars side by side. The gap between them is an Axis Intelligence Research proxy for money that went out by check or another non-deposit route. It is a lower bound, because the direct-deposit column also includes refunds on prior-year returns.
| Early-May reading | Total refunded | Refunded by direct deposit | Gap (proxy) | Gap share | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | $267.12B | $204.96B | $62.16B | 23.27% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| 2015 | $270.99B | $236.89B | $34.10B | 12.58% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| 2019 | $277.26B | $249.43B | $27.83B | 10.04% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| 2022 | $285.55B | $276.20B | $9.35B | 3.27% | Axis calc. from IRS weekly CSV |
| 2025 | $274.979B | $263.726B | $11.253B | 4.09% | Axis calc. from IRS |
| 2026 | $324.757B | $324.744B | $0.013B | 0.004% | Axis calc. from IRS |
The transition was not frictionless. As of April 27, 2026, the IRS had issued about 4 million notices for returns with missing or incorrect direct-deposit information, and taxpayers who needed a paper-check waiver faced refund delays of 6 weeks or more, according to the Taxpayer Advocate. Our direct deposit statistics cover the payment rails these refunds now travel on.
Sarah Davis’s read: For banks, a refund season that is 98% direct deposit is a predictable inflow: the money lands in the account, not a check-cashing counter. For the unbanked, the same policy turned a refund into a paperwork project. Both things are true, and the 4 million notices are where they meet.
How Much Does the IRS Refund in a Year?
The filing-season tally is only part of the refund system. In fiscal year 2025, the IRS issued 120.6 million refunds totaling $638.8 billion across all taxes, including 116.9 million individual income tax refunds worth $516.4 billion, according to the IRS Data Book 2025. The average individual refund was $3,173; the IRS calculates it after excluding $151.1 billion in Affordable Care Act Advance Premium Tax Credit payments. Those canonical FY2025 figures, and how refunds compare with total collections, are owned on this site by our US tax statistics page.
| Refund component, FY2025 | Refunds | Amount | Average (Axis calc.) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All IRS refunds | 120.6 million | $638.8B | — | IRS Data Book 2025, Tables 1-7, 1-8 |
| Individual income tax | 116.9 million | $516.4B | $3,173 (IRS) | IRS Data Book 2025 |
| Earned income tax credit, refundable portion | 22.2 million | $65.2B | $2,939 | IRS Data Book 2025 |
| Child tax credit, refundable portion | 14.0 million | $26.5B | $1,885 | IRS Data Book 2025 |
| Interest paid on refunds (all taxes) | — | $16.8B | — | IRS Data Book 2025, Table 1-1 note |
For fiscal year 2026, which ended September 30, the Congressional Budget Office’s Monthly Budget Review for September 2026 estimates that individual income tax refunds rose $16 billion, or 5%, and notes that the 2025 reconciliation act boosted refunds for some taxpayers.
How large will 2026 refunds be by year-end?
The IRS has not yet published a 2026 year-end count. In each of the last four seasons, refunds paid by early May represented between 78.5% and 83.6% of the calendar-year total. Applying that range to the $324.757 billion paid by May 8, Axis Intelligence Research estimates 2026 calendar-year refunds at $388.4 billion to $413.7 billion, against $328.878 billion for all of 2025 (Dec. 26, 2025 IRS statistics). This is an estimate; it will be replaced by the IRS figure when the agency posts its October or December 2026 update.
Which States Get the Biggest EITC Refunds?
The earned income tax credit is the largest refundable credit behind many of the biggest February refunds. For tax year 2024 returns processed in 2025, about 24 million workers and families received $69.6 billion, an average of $2,894, according to IRS EITC statistics. That average rose 5.5% from $2,743 a year earlier, per Axis calculation.
Average EITC by state, tax year 2024
| Rank | State | Average EITC, TY2024 | Change from TY2023 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisiana | $3,494 | +6.5% | IRS; change Axis calc. |
| 2 | Mississippi | $3,480 | +6.6% | IRS; Axis calc. |
| 3 | Alabama | $3,355 | +6.3% | IRS; Axis calc. |
| 4 | Georgia | $3,275 | +5.8% | IRS; Axis calc. |
| 5 | Texas | $3,234 | +4.9% | IRS; Axis calc. |
| … | … | … | … | |
| 47 | Montana | $2,468 | +5.4% | IRS; Axis calc. |
| 48 | Oregon | $2,387 | +5.5% | IRS; Axis calc. |
| 49 | Maine | $2,369 | +6.0% | IRS; Axis calc. |
| 50 | New Hampshire | $2,242 | +5.8% | IRS; Axis calc. |
| 51 | Vermont | $2,228 | +6.1% | IRS; Axis calc. |
All 50 states and DC, both tax years, ranks and changes are in the CSV.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, the average EITC in Louisiana is 1.57 times Vermont’s, a $1,266 gap. Colorado posted the fastest increase (+6.8%) and Florida the slowest (+4.2%). The EITC is larger for families with more qualifying children and for earnings in the credit’s phase-in range, so the state map tracks family size and low-wage work more than any state policy. How those states fare on other federal benefits is mapped in our Social Security by state data.
Sarah Davis’s read: The EITC states are the PATH Act states. Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama households are the ones whose refunds are legally frozen until mid-February, and the ones most likely to be offered a refund advance in January. If you want to know where a delayed refund hurts first, this table is the map.
Methodology
Collection. Axis Intelligence Research retrieved every figure on October 13, 2026 from primary publications: the IRS weekly filing season statistics (the May 8, 2026 and December 26, 2025 releases and the IRS’s 2009-to-current CSV); IRS releases IR-2026-74 and IR-2025-94; the National Taxpayer Advocate’s FY2027 Objectives Report release (IR-2026-79); the IRS Data Book 2025 (Publication 55B); IRS EITC statistics by state; CBO’s Monthly Budget Review for September 2026; and the CPI-U and 3-month Treasury bill series, read through FRED, which republishes the BLS and Federal Reserve data.
Comparable weeks. IRS filing statistics are cumulative from the season opening. Year-over-year comparisons use the IRS week ending closest to May 8 of each year. The 2020 and 2021 readings are flagged because deadlines were postponed.
Refund Size Lift (RSL). Size effect = (avg₁ − avg₀) × (n₀ + n₁) ÷ 2; count effect = (n₁ − n₀) × (avg₀ + avg₁) ÷ 2; RSL = size effect ÷ (amount₁ − amount₀) × 100. Averages are amount ÷ number. Published only when the total change is positive.
Refund Carry Value (RCV). RCV = average refund × mean 2025 3-month T-bill rate (4.07%) × holding days ÷ 365. Holding days run from July 1, 2025 (assumed midpoint of evenly accruing overwithholding) to the dollar-weighted refund date (March 12, 2026), computed by dating each weekly IRS dollar increment three days before its week-ending date. The T-bill rate is on a discount basis. The aggregate figure is a ceiling because refundable credits are included in refund dollars.
Inflation adjustment. Real average refund = nominal average × (April 2026 CPI-U ÷ April CPI-U of that year), not seasonally adjusted.
Direct-deposit gap. Total amount refunded − amount refunded by direct deposit, from the same IRS week. Because the IRS direct-deposit column includes prior-year returns, the gap understates non-deposit refunds.
Year-end estimate. May-reading amount ÷ the early-May share of year-end dollars, using the lowest (78.5%, 2023) and highest (83.6%, 2025) shares of 2022–2025.
Scope. Weekly IRS statistics count current-year individual returns processed in the calendar year; the Data Book counts all refunds in the fiscal year. The two bases are shown separately and never combined. State EITC figures follow IRS address rules. Per-deduction filer counts for the 2026 season were not used because no primary IRS or Treasury table publishing them could be retrieved.
About This Dataset
tax-refund-statistics.csv contains 645 rows: every number in this article, every chart datapoint, and every input and output of each Axis Intelligence Research calculation. It covers IRS weekly refund statistics for the 2025 and 2026 seasons, early-May readings for 2009–2026 with CPI-adjusted values, the RSL and RCV inputs and outputs, refund delay indicators, FY2025 Data Book refunds, CBO’s FY2026 refund change, and average EITC for all 50 states and DC in tax years 2023 and 2024. Each row carries metric, value, unit, as-of date, geography, segment, source organization, document, URL, retrieval date, primary-source flag, calculation flag, method note and license.
License: CC BY 4.0. Reuse freely with attribution to Axis Intelligence Research and a link to this page.
How to Cite This Data
APA: Axis Intelligence Research, & Davis, S. (2026, October 13). Tax refund statistics 2026: The average refund hit a record $3,276, and still buys less than it did in 2010. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/tax-refund-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research, and Sarah Davis. “Tax Refund Statistics 2026: The Average Refund Hit a Record $3,276, and Still Buys Less Than It Did in 2010.” Axis Intelligence, 13 Oct. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/tax-refund-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research and Sarah Davis. “Tax Refund Statistics 2026: The Average Refund Hit a Record $3,276, and Still Buys Less Than It Did in 2010.” Axis Intelligence, October 13, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/tax-refund-statistics/.
Dataset: Axis Intelligence Research, Tax Refund Statistics 2026 dataset (Refund Size Lift and Refund Carry Value), 2026. CC BY 4.0.
Tax Refund Questions, Answered From IRS Data
Is my 2026 refund bigger or smaller than average?
Compare it with $3,276, the IRS average for refunds issued through May 8, 2026. If you filed in early February and claimed the EITC or additional child tax credit, the fairer benchmark is the February 20 average of $3,804.
Why was the average refund so low in early February 2026?
The PATH Act holds refunds claiming the EITC or additional child tax credit until mid-February. The IRS average on February 6, 2026 ($2,290) excluded millions of those larger refunds; it rose to $3,804 two weeks later once they were released.
How much bigger are 2026 refunds than 2025 refunds?
Through early May, the average refund rose $337 (11.5%) and total refunds rose $49.778 billion (18.1%), per IRS data. Axis Intelligence Research’s Refund Size Lift attributes 65.2% of the dollar gain to larger checks and the rest to more refunds.
Did the new tips, overtime and senior deductions raise refunds?
Roughly 45% of 2026 individual returns claimed at least one of the new benefits, and their average refund was over $3,200 as of May 27, per IRS release IR-2026-74. That floor sits close to the overall average, so the published data show a broad refund increase rather than one concentrated in those returns.
Is a large tax refund a good thing financially?
It is an interest-free loan to the Treasury. Axis Intelligence Research estimates the average 2026 refund carried a Refund Carry Value of $92.71 at 2025 Treasury-bill rates; a household carrying credit card debt gave up more. Adjusting Form W-4 shifts that money into paychecks.
Can I still get my tax refund as a paper check?
Only by exception. The IRS began phasing out paper refund checks on September 30, 2025 under Executive Order 14247, and about 98% of 2026 refunds went by direct deposit. Taxpayers needing a waiver faced delays of 6 weeks or more, according to the Taxpayer Advocate.
What should I do if my refund is taking longer than 21 days?
The 21-day timeline applies to e-filed returns with direct deposit and no issues. In 2026, more than 14 million returns were suspended for review and over 1 million filers waited an average of about 5½ weeks. Identity-theft cases took about 20 months to resolve.
Which states have the highest average EITC refunds?
Louisiana ($3,494), Mississippi ($3,480) and Alabama ($3,355) had the highest average earned income tax credit for tax year 2024; Vermont ($2,228) had the lowest, according to IRS EITC statistics.