GLP-1 Market Statistics 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Jennifer Miller · Financial analysis by Mia Scarlett | Last updated: September 15, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
Headline statistic: Eli Lilly captured 61.8% of combined next-generation incretin revenue from the two GLP-1 leaders in Q2 2026, up from 36.0% in 2024, according to the Axis GLP-1 Duopoly Share Index (GDSI). Axis Intelligence Research built the index from Lilly’s and Novo Nordisk’s own product-level filings, converted to US dollars at Novo’s disclosed exchange rates.
Quick Answer
The two GLP-1 leaders generated $71.0 billion in next-generation incretin revenue in 2025, up 55.1% from $45.8 billion in 2024, Axis Intelligence Research calculates from company filings. Lilly’s franchise (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Foundayo) now outsells Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide franchise (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus): the GDSI read 61.8 in Q2 2026, where 50 means parity. Pills remain small, at 5.8% of combined Q2 revenue.
Key Findings
- Axis Intelligence Research finds Eli Lilly held 61.8% of combined Lilly–Novo incretin revenue in Q2 2026, versus 36.0% in 2024 (GDSI, company filings).
- Combined Lilly and Novo Nordisk next-generation GLP-1 revenue reached $71.0 billion in 2025, a 55.1% rise on 2024, Axis Intelligence Research calculates.
- Oral GLP-1s generated $1.42 billion in Q2 2026, or 5.8% of the two leaders’ combined incretin revenue, according to Axis Intelligence Research.
- Axis Intelligence Research estimates 36.9% of the two leaders’ allocated Q2 2026 GLP-1 revenue came from outside the United States.
- Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill accounted for 46.1% of all US Wegovy weekly prescriptions in the week ending July 17, 2026, Axis Intelligence Research calculates from Novo’s disclosures.
How Big Is the GLP-1 Market in 2026?
There is no single audited “GLP-1 market” number. There are two companies that report product revenue line by line, and a long tail that does not. So Axis Intelligence Research measures what can be measured to the dollar: the combined next-generation incretin revenue of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, the two companies behind every GLP-1 brand most patients, payers and investors track.
Lilly reported Mounjaro revenue of $22,965 million and Zepbound revenue of $13,542 million for full-year 2025. Novo Nordisk reported Ozempic sales of DKK 127,089 million, Wegovy sales of DKK 79,106 million and Rybelsus sales of DKK 22,093 million for the same year.
Converted at Novo’s disclosed 2025 average rate of DKK 662 per USD 100, the Novo semaglutide franchise equals $34.5 billion. Add Lilly’s $36.5 billion and the two leaders booked $71.0 billion in 2025.
GLP-1 revenue of the two market leaders, 2024–2026
| Period | Lilly incretin franchise (USD m) | Novo semaglutide franchise (USD m) | Combined (USD m) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16,466 | 29,295.9 | 45,761.9 | Lilly 8-K; Novo 6-K; Axis calculation |
| 2025 | 36,507 | 34,484.6 | 70,991.6 | Lilly 8-K; Novo 6-K; Axis calculation |
| Q1 2026 | 12,822 | 8,263.8 | 21,085.8 | Lilly Q2 release; Novo H1 report; Axis calculation |
| Q2 2026 | 14,969 | 9,266.4 | 24,235.4 | Lilly Q2 release; Novo H1 report; Axis calculation |
| H1 2026 | 27,791 | 17,530.2 | 45,321.2 | Lilly Q2 release; Novo H1 report; Axis calculation |
Lilly franchise = Mounjaro + Zepbound + Foundayo. Novo franchise = Ozempic + Rybelsus/Ozempic pill + Wegovy injectable + Wegovy pill (2026 figures use Novo’s adjusted sales).
Doubling the first half gives an arithmetic run-rate of $90.6 billion for 2026. That is not a forecast. Both companies cut realized prices through the year, and Novo will lower US list prices again on January 1, 2027.
Mia Scarlett’s read: Growth of 55.1% is the headline, and it hides the split underneath. Lilly’s franchise grew 121.7% in 2025; Novo’s semaglutide franchise grew 13.1% in Danish kroner. One company is expanding the category. The other is defending a very large base.
GLP-1 Market Share: Who Leads, Lilly or Novo Nordisk?
The Axis GLP-1 Duopoly Share Index (GDSI)
GDSI (GLP-1 Duopoly Share Index) measures Eli Lilly’s share of the combined next-generation incretin revenue of Lilly and Novo Nordisk, on a 0–100 scale. A reading of 50 is parity; above 50, Lilly leads; below 50, Novo leads.
Formula: GDSI = 100 × Lilly franchise revenue ÷ (Lilly franchise revenue + Novo semaglutide franchise revenue in USD)
| Period | GDSI reading | Leader | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 36.0 | Novo Nordisk | Axis calculation from Lilly 8-K and Novo 6-K |
| 2025 | 51.4 | Eli Lilly | Axis calculation from Lilly 8-K and Novo 6-K |
| Q1 2026 | 60.8 | Eli Lilly | Axis calculation from Lilly Q2 release and Novo H1 report |
| Q2 2026 | 61.8 | Eli Lilly | Axis calculation from Lilly Q2 release and Novo H1 report |
| H1 2026 | 61.3 | Eli Lilly | Axis calculation from Lilly Q2 release and Novo H1 report |
The crossover happened inside 2025. By Q2 2026, Lilly’s three incretin brands brought in roughly $1.62 for every $1 of Novo semaglutide revenue.
Revenue share versus prescription share
Revenue share and volume share tell different stories, and the gap is the analysis. Novo Nordisk, citing IQVIA, reported a total GLP-1 volume market share of 54.6% globally in the 12 months to November 2025, with 44.8% in the US and 61.6% in International Operations. It also reported a 59.6% volume share of the branded obesity market.
Novo still moves more units. Lilly books more dollars. Two things explain it: tirzepatide carries a higher value per prescription in the markets where it competes, and Novo’s volume includes large international diabetes markets where semaglutide prices are lower and, in some countries, now exposed to generic competition.
Mia Scarlett’s read: A company can lead the prescription count and lose the revenue race at the same time. For investors, the GDSI is the number that maps to earnings; for health systems, the volume share is the number that maps to patients treated.
GLP-1 market share in the US vs outside the US
| Region (Q2 2026) | GDSI reading | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 63.6 | Mounjaro US $4.8B + Zepbound US $4.9B vs Novo US semaglutide | Axis estimate from Lilly Q2 release and Novo H1 report |
| Outside the US | 58.4 | Mounjaro ex-US $5.2B vs Novo International Operations semaglutide | Axis estimate from Lilly Q2 release and Novo H1 report |
Regional readings are estimates: Lilly discloses regional splits rounded to $0.1 billion.
GLP-1 Sales by Drug: Mounjaro, Zepbound, Ozempic and Wegovy
Quarterly revenue by brand, Q2 2026
| Brand | Company | Q2 2026 revenue | Q2 2025 revenue | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mounjaro | Eli Lilly | $9,943m | $5,199m | Lilly Q2 2026 release |
| Zepbound | Eli Lilly | $4,928m | $3,381m | Lilly Q2 2026 release |
| Foundayo | Eli Lilly | $98m | — | Lilly Q2 2026 release |
| Ozempic | Novo Nordisk | DKK 31,375m | not used | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Wegovy injectable | Novo Nordisk | DKK 19,484m | not used | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Ozempic pill / Rybelsus | Novo Nordisk | DKK 5,228m | not used | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Wegovy pill | Novo Nordisk | DKK 3,218m | — | Novo H1 2026 report |
Ozempic remains the largest single GLP-1 brand by Novo’s own reporting, at DKK 31,375 million in the quarter. Mounjaro is the fastest-growing: $9,943 million against $5,199 million a year earlier.
Price versus volume: where the growth actually comes from
Lilly’s Q2 2026 release breaks the revenue change into its parts. Worldwide, volume rose 60% while realized prices fell 13%. In the US, prices fell 3%, a figure the company says would have been roughly 9% without rebate and discount estimate adjustments. Outside the US, realized prices fell 36%, which Lilly attributes mainly to Mounjaro’s addition to China’s National Reimbursement Drug List.
Novo Nordisk’s adjusted gross margin fell to 78.2% in Q2 2026 from 82.7% a year earlier. Lilly reported a gross margin of 85.8% for the same quarter.
Mia Scarlett’s read: Strip the adjustments out of Lilly’s US line and the underlying price erosion is closer to 9% than 3%. Every GLP-1 revenue forecast built on 2024 net prices now needs a haircut; the only open question is how much volume offsets it.
GLP-1 Prescriptions: How Many Scripts Are Being Written?
Neither company publishes a full prescription census, and IQVIA data is licensed. The figures below are what Novo Nordisk disclosed in its filings.
| US prescription metric | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Wegovy weekly TRx (injectable + pill) | ~575,000 | Week ending Jul 17, 2026 | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Wegovy pill weekly TRx | >265,000 | Week ending Jul 17, 2026 | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Wegovy injectable weekly TRx | ~310,000 | Week ending Jul 17, 2026 | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Of which self-pay (injectable) | ~120,000 | Week ending Jul 17, 2026 | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Wegovy pill TRx, Q2 2026 | ~2.9 million | Q2 2026 | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Wegovy pill TRx since launch | >5 million | Aug 4, 2026 | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Wegovy pill weekly TRx, early launch | ~50,000 | Week ending Jan 23, 2026 | Novo FY2025 report |
Two Axis Intelligence Research calculations follow directly. The Wegovy pill made up 46.1% of all US Wegovy weekly prescriptions by mid-July. And weekly pill prescriptions were 5.3 times their late-January level. On the injectable side, 38.7% of weekly Wegovy scripts were filled through the self-pay channel.
Branded obesity market growth by region
Novo Nordisk, citing IQVIA volume data for the 12 months to May 2026, reported branded obesity market volume growth of 81% globally, 87% in the US and 71% across International Operations. For the 12 months to November 2025, global growth was 104%.
Novo also reported the GLP-1 share of total diabetes prescriptions at 8.1% globally and 20.0% in the US (12 months to November 2025).
Jennifer Miller’s read: Volume growth decelerating from 104% to 81% is still growth at a pace almost no other drug class has sustained. What changed is the mix: a rising share of scripts now arrives through self-pay and pills, which carry lower prices per script.
Oral GLP-1 Statistics: How Much Revenue Do the Pills Generate?
Two obesity pills reached the US market in four months. The FDA approved the Wegovy pill on December 22, 2025, with launch on January 5, 2026. The FDA approved Lilly’s Foundayo (orforglipron) on April 1, 2026.
| Oral GLP-1 revenue, Q2 2026 | USD m | Share of combined leader revenue | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wegovy pill | 502.8 | — | Axis conversion of Novo H1 report |
| Foundayo | 98 | — | Lilly Q2 release |
| Obesity pills subtotal | 600.8 | 2.5% | Axis calculation |
| All oral GLP-1s (incl. Ozempic pill / Rybelsus) | 1,417.7 | 5.8% | Axis calculation |
In its first partial quarter, Foundayo sold $98 million; the Wegovy pill, in its second full quarter, sold 5.1 times that. Lilly’s approval release notes orforglipron has been submitted in more than 40 countries.
Jennifer Miller’s read: The pill race is being reported like a revolution and booked like a rounding error: 2.5% of combined revenue. The more consequential number is 46.1%, the pill’s share of Wegovy scripts. That shows where new patients are starting, and a pill that captures starts today shapes the injectable mix two years out.
Our dedicated satellite, Oral GLP-1 Statistics 2026, covers approvals, pipeline and adoption in depth.
US vs International GLP-1 Revenue: Where Is the Growth?
| Region, Q2 2026 | Combined Lilly + Novo revenue (USD m) | Share of allocated revenue | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 15,260.6 | 63.1% | Axis estimate |
| Outside the US | 8,905.8 | 36.9% | Axis estimate |
Allocation excludes Foundayo and any ex-US Zepbound revenue, which Lilly does not split.
Novo Nordisk’s International Operations obesity sales grew 37% at constant exchange rates in Q2 2026, according to its half-year report. Lilly’s Mounjaro revenue outside the US reached a rounded $5.2 billion, larger than its US Mounjaro revenue of $4.8 billion.
Patent expiry now shapes the international numbers. Novo Nordisk states the semaglutide compound patent in China was valid until its March 2026 expiry, and its H1 2026 report cites loss of exclusivity in Canada as a driver of lower realized prices.
Mia Scarlett’s read: For three years the GLP-1 story was a US pricing story. Mounjaro now earns more outside the US than inside it. International volume is the growth engine; international price, under reimbursement listings and generic entry, is the brake.
How Many People Use GLP-1 Drugs?
US adoption
| US adoption metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adults currently using a GLP-1 for weight loss | 3% | 8% | 11% | Gallup |
| Adults who ever used a GLP-1 for weight loss | 6% | 12% | 15% | Gallup |
Among current weight-loss users in 2026, Gallup’s revised tables show 68% on brand-name medication and 19% on compounded or custom-mixed versions; 35% of compounded users had switched from a brand. Gallup’s self-reported US adult obesity rate stood at 36.4% in 2026, down from 39.9% in 2022.
Counting every indication, KFF’s poll fielded in late 2025 found 12% of US adults currently taking a GLP-1 and 18% having ever taken one. [older data] KFF has not published a newer wave as of this update.
Patients reached globally
Novo Nordisk reports reaching 4.9 million people with obesity medicines (12-month moving total to June 2026), up from 2.9 million a year earlier, plus 41.6 million people with its diabetes medicines. In its Foundayo approval release, Lilly CEO David Ricks stated that fewer than 1 in 10 people who could benefit from a GLP-1 are taking one.
Jennifer Miller’s read: The 19% compounded share is the figure the branded revenue tables never show. Those patients are demand the two leaders have not yet monetized, which is exactly why both companies built cash-pay prices in the $149 range.
GLP-1 Prices and Coverage: What Changed in 2026?
| Price or coverage lever | Value | Effective | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare GLP-1 Bridge copay | $50 per month | Jul 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2027 | CMS |
| Wegovy pill self-pay price | $149–$299 per month | 2026 | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Foundayo self-pay starting price | $149 per month | April 2026 | Lilly Foundayo release |
| Foundayo with commercial savings card | from $25 per month | April 2026 | Lilly Foundayo release |
| Wegovy and Ozempic US list price (WAC) | $675 | Jan 1, 2027 | Novo H1 2026 report |
| Wegovy / Ozempic list price cut | ~50% / ~35% | Jan 1, 2027 | Novo H1 2026 report |
KFF’s late-2025 poll found 56% of GLP-1 users said the drugs were difficult to afford, and 27% of insured users paid the full cost themselves. [older data]
Jennifer Miller’s read: Medicare was statutorily locked out of obesity drugs; the Bridge demonstration opens that door at a $50 copay for eligible Part D enrollees. The volume upside lands in the second half of 2026, and the price concession lands in the 2027 list-price reset. Read the two together, not separately.
Detailed price, insurance and affordability data will live in GLP-1 Price Statistics 2026.
What Happens Next in the GLP-1 Market?
The next readings of the GDSI will be shaped by four dated catalysts drawn from company filings:
- Q4 2026: Novo Nordisk expects a US regulatory decision on CagriSema.
- Q1 2027: Lilly plans to submit a Biologics License Application for retatrutide.
- January 1, 2027: Novo’s US list price for Wegovy and Ozempic drops to $675.
- 2026 guidance: Lilly expects full-year revenue of $85–87 billion; Novo expects adjusted sales growth of 0% to –6% at constant exchange rates.
Capacity is the constraint beneath all of it. Novo Nordisk spent DKK 60,140 million on property, plant and equipment in 2025 and guides to around DKK 55 billion in 2026; Lilly committed an additional $4.5 billion to its Indiana sites in Q2 2026. (Full capacity data: GLP-1 Manufacturing Statistics 2026.)
Mia Scarlett’s read: Guidance is the cleanest signal in the sector. One leader raised its revenue range to $85–87 billion; the other guides to a sales decline at constant currency. The GDSI does not need a forecast to move. It needs those two guidance ranges to be met.
Methodology
Scope. Axis Intelligence Research tracks the next-generation incretin franchises of the two companies that report product-level GLP-1 revenue: Eli Lilly (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Foundayo) and Novo Nordisk (Ozempic, Rybelsus/Ozempic pill, Wegovy injectable, Wegovy pill). Legacy daily injectables (Victoza, Saxenda) and Lilly’s Trulicity are excluded from the GDSI so that the index compares current-generation franchises.
Sources. Every figure comes from a document opened on September 15, 2026: Lilly’s Q2 2026 release and Q4 2025 Form 8-K, Novo Nordisk’s H1 2026 financial report and 2025 Form 6-K, Lilly’s Foundayo approval release, CMS, Gallup and KFF. IQVIA market data is cited only as reported by Novo Nordisk.
Currency conversion. Novo reports in Danish kroner. Axis converts using Novo’s own disclosed period-average USD rate: DKK 689 per USD 100 (2024), DKK 662 (2025) and DKK 640 (H1 2026, applied to both Q1 and Q2 2026).
Formulas.
- Novo franchise USD = DKK million ÷ (period rate ÷ 100)
- GDSI = 100 × Lilly franchise ÷ (Lilly franchise + Novo franchise USD)
- Oral share = oral GLP-1 revenue ÷ combined leader revenue × 100
- Regional split uses Lilly’s company-rounded regional figures ($4.8B, $4.9B, $5.2B) and Novo’s US Operations / International Operations product lines
- Q1 2026 = H1 2026 − Q2 2026 for both companies
Accounting basis. 2026 Novo figures use adjusted sales, which exclude the DKK 26.8 billion 340B provision reversal booked in Q1 2026. 2024–2025 Novo figures are as reported. Lilly figures are as reported.
What the figures don’t capture. Revenue from compounded products, biosimilar and generic semaglutide, and GLP-1 makers other than Lilly and Novo is outside the GDSI. Prescription counts are company-disclosed and rounded.
About This Dataset
The full fact table behind this page — 150 rows covering revenue, prices, prescriptions, adoption, events and every Axis calculation, each with source organization, document, URL and retrieval date — is available as glp-1-market-statistics.csv under a CC BY 4.0 license.
How to Cite This Page
APA: Axis Intelligence Research. (2026, September 15). GLP-1 market statistics 2026: Sales, market share & the Lilly–Novo race. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/glp-1-market-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research. “GLP-1 Market Statistics 2026: Sales, Market Share & the Lilly–Novo Race.” Axis Intelligence, 15 Sept. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/glp-1-market-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research. “GLP-1 Market Statistics 2026: Sales, Market Share & the Lilly–Novo Race.” Axis Intelligence, September 15, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/glp-1-market-statistics/.
FAQ: GLP-1 Market Statistics
Has Eli Lilly overtaken Novo Nordisk in GLP-1 sales?
Yes, by revenue. Axis Intelligence Research’s GDSI shows Lilly held 51.4% of combined Lilly–Novo incretin revenue in 2025 and 61.8% in Q2 2026. Novo Nordisk still led global GLP-1 prescription volume at 54.6% in the 12 months to November 2025, citing IQVIA.
Which GLP-1 drug generates the most revenue?
Ozempic is the largest single GLP-1 brand by Novo Nordisk’s reporting, with DKK 31,375 million in Q2 2026 sales. Mounjaro is the largest Lilly brand at $9,943 million in the same quarter and grew faster year over year.
What is the GLP-1 Duopoly Share Index (GDSI)?
The GDSI is an Axis Intelligence Research index measuring Eli Lilly’s share of combined Lilly and Novo Nordisk next-generation incretin revenue on a 0–100 scale. A reading of 50 means parity. It is calculated from company product revenue, with Novo’s DKK sales converted at Novo’s disclosed average USD rate.
How much revenue do oral GLP-1 pills generate?
Oral GLP-1s from Lilly and Novo generated $1,417.7 million in Q2 2026, or 5.8% of combined leader revenue, Axis Intelligence Research calculates. The two obesity pills alone, the Wegovy pill and Foundayo, generated $600.8 million, or 2.5%.
Why is GLP-1 revenue growing slower than GLP-1 prescriptions?
Realized prices are falling while volume rises. Lilly reported a 60% volume increase and a 13% realized price decline worldwide in Q2 2026, with a 36% price decline outside the US, largely from Mounjaro’s listing on China’s National Reimbursement Drug List.
How much of GLP-1 revenue comes from outside the United States?
Axis Intelligence Research estimates 36.9% of the two leaders’ allocated Q2 2026 GLP-1 revenue came from outside the US. Lilly’s ex-US Mounjaro revenue, at a rounded $5.2 billion, exceeded its US Mounjaro revenue of $4.8 billion.
Does Medicare cover GLP-1 drugs for weight loss in 2026?
Through a demonstration, yes. CMS’s Medicare GLP-1 Bridge gives eligible Part D enrollees certain GLP-1 weight-loss drugs for a $50 monthly copay from July 1, 2026, through December 31, 2027, according to CMS.
What share of US adults use GLP-1 drugs for weight loss?
Gallup reports 11% of US adults were currently taking a GLP-1 for weight loss in 2026, up from 3% in 2024, and 15% had used one at some point. Counting all indications, KFF found 12% currently taking a GLP-1 in late 2025.
Will GLP-1 prices keep falling in 2027?
List prices will. Novo Nordisk will lower the US list price of Wegovy and Ozempic to $675 from January 1, 2027, cuts of roughly 50% and 35%, according to its H1 2026 report. Net price effects depend on rebates, which companies do not disclose by product.