US Mortgage Statistics 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Sarah Davis | Last updated: October 5, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.28% on October 1, 2026, up 130 basis points from the 2026 low of 5.98% in just 31 weeks. According to Axis Intelligence Research, a homeowner who gives up a 4% mortgage to borrow the same balance today now pays 43.3% more every month, the widest Legacy Rate Penalty of 2026.
Quick Answer
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.28% as of October 1, 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS), against $13.117 trillion in outstanding U.S. mortgage debt at the end of Q2 2026 (New York Fed). According to Axis Intelligence Research, principal and interest on a median-priced home now absorbs 32.2% of median household income, up from 28.2% at the February low.
Key Findings
- The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.28% on October 1, 2026, up from 6.34% a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, the Legacy Rate Penalty (LRP) for a borrower holding a 4% loan reached 43.3% on October 1, 2026, up 18.0 percentage points from the 2026 low.
- U.S. mortgage debt totaled $13.117 trillion at the end of Q2 2026, equal to 69.9% of all household debt, per Axis Intelligence Research calculations from New York Fed data.
- The FHA mortgage delinquency rate hit 11.79% in Q2 2026, 4.33 times the conventional rate of 2.72%, based on Axis Intelligence Research analysis of MBA National Delinquency Survey data.
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, a household needs $93,951 in income to keep principal and interest on a median-priced home at 30% of income at 7.28%, which is $6,491 above the 2025 median household income of $87,460.
What Is the Average Mortgage Rate Right Now?
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.28% in the week of October 1, 2026, up from 7.03% the prior week, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey release. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.60%, compared with 5.55% a year earlier. Freddie Mac notes that the survey tracks conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with excellent credit who put 20% down, so most real borrowers will see a quote at or above this benchmark.
2026 Weekly 30-Year and 15-Year Mortgage Rates
| Date (2026) | 30-Yr Fixed | 15-Yr Fixed | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8 | 6.16% | 5.46% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
| Feb 26 (2026 low) | 5.98% | 5.44% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
| Apr 2 | 6.46% | 5.77% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
| Jun 4 | 6.48% | 5.79% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
| Aug 6 | 6.69% | 6.01% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
| Sep 10 | 6.76% | 6.09% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
| Sep 17 | 6.95% | 6.26% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
| Sep 24 | 7.03% | 6.42% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
| Oct 1 | 7.28% | 6.60% | Freddie Mac PMMS archive |
The full weekly series in our dataset shows that the climb did not come in one shock. The 30-year rate spent most of spring between 6.23% and 6.53%, drifted into the high 6s through August, then added 52 basis points in the three weeks between September 10 and October 1. According to Axis Intelligence Research, the rate is 0.94 percentage points higher than a year ago and 130 basis points above the February 26 low of 5.98%.
Sarah Davis, Axis Intelligence Research: The quote a lender shows you is the end of a pipe, not the source. The Federal Reserve raised its policy range by a quarter point on September 16, to 3.75% to 4.00%. Mortgage rates moved by more than that in two weeks, which tells you the pressure came from the bond market, not the Fed’s overnight rate. If you are waiting for the Fed to “bring mortgage rates down,” you are watching the wrong dial.
Why Mortgage Rates Rose After the September 2026 Fed Hike
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, per the Federal Reserve’s implementation note. Mortgages, however, price off longer-term yields. The 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield closed at 5.24% on October 1, 2026 (FRED, series DGS10).
According to Axis Intelligence Research, that leaves a mortgage-Treasury spread of roughly 2.04 percentage points (7.28% minus 5.24%). The spread is approximate, since PMMS is a weekly survey average and DGS10 is a daily close. The practical read: with the 10-year yield above 5%, a 30-year mortgage rate in the 7s is the arithmetic outcome even with a stable spread. Rates will not return to the low 6s without either a lower Treasury yield or a narrower spread, and the second lever is controlled by MBS investors and lenders, not by borrowers.
What Is the Legacy Rate Penalty (LRP)?
The Legacy Rate Penalty (LRP) is an original Axis Intelligence Research metric. It measures how much more a homeowner would pay each month, in percentage terms, to carry the same mortgage balance at today’s market rate instead of the rate locked on their existing loan.
Formula: LRP = [PMT(current rate, 360 months) / PMT(legacy rate, 360 months)] minus 1
PMT is the standard fixed-rate amortization payment. Because both payments are computed on the same balance, the balance cancels out, which makes the LRP a pure rate-gap measure that applies equally to a $200,000 loan and a $700,000 loan. The current rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average; legacy rates are set at 3%, 4%, 5% and 6% to match the buckets in which FHFA reports outstanding loans.
Legacy Rate Penalty by Locked-In Rate
| Legacy rate on existing loan | LRP at 7.28% (Oct 1, 2026) | LRP at 5.98% (Feb 26, 2026) | LRP at 6.34% (one year ago) | Rate inputs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 62.3% | 41.9% | 47.4% | Freddie Mac PMMS |
| 4% | 43.3% | 25.3% | 30.2% | Freddie Mac PMMS |
| 5% | 27.5% | 11.4% | 15.8% | Freddie Mac PMMS |
| 6% | 14.1% | -0.2% | 3.7% | Freddie Mac PMMS |
According to Axis Intelligence Research, the LRP for a 4% loan rose 18.0 percentage points between February 26 and October 1, 2026, from 25.3% to 43.3%. The 6% row is the most telling: in February, a homeowner with a 6% loan could have moved at a slightly lower rate (an LRP of -0.2%). Today the same move costs 14.1% more per month.
In dollars, the LRP on a median-sized new loan ($343,280, which is the August 2026 median existing-home price of $429,100 with 20% down) works out to about $710 a month, or $8,519 a year, for a borrower trading a 4% rate for 7.28%.
Sarah Davis, Axis Intelligence Research: Nobody sends a homeowner a bill labeled “lock-in penalty,” but that is what a move costs. The LRP is the fee hiding inside the decision to sell. At 43.3% for a 4% borrower, it is large enough to override a new job, a growing family or a better school district for many households, which is exactly why inventory has stayed thinner than demand.
How Many Homeowners Have a Mortgage Rate Below Today’s Market Rate?
About half of outstanding mortgages carry a rate below 4%. FHFA’s National Mortgage Database put the share at 49.1% in Q2 2026, down from a peak of 65.2% in Q1 2022, according to the FHFA NMDB aggregate statistics released September 30, 2026. The average rate on all outstanding mortgages was 4.4%, up from 4.3% a year earlier and 3.8% in Q1 2022. The Federal Reserve Board’s own staff calculations on the same database, cited in Governor Michael Barr’s September 23, 2026 speech, describe about half of mortgages at 4% or lower and nearly 80% below 6%.
Outstanding U.S. Mortgages by Interest Rate (Q2 2026)
| Rate bucket | Share of outstanding loans | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 3% | 19.2% | Reported | FHFA NMDB |
| 3% to 4% | 29.9% | Reported | FHFA NMDB |
| 4% to 5% | 16.5% | Reported | FHFA NMDB |
| 5% to 6% | 12.0% | Reported | FHFA NMDB |
| 6% or higher | 22.5% | Reported | FHFA NMDB |
| Below 4% (total) | 49.1% | Axis sum of first two buckets | FHFA NMDB |
According to Axis Intelligence Research, 77.5% of outstanding fixed-rate mortgages carry a rate below 6%, meaning more than three in four mortgaged owners would face a positive Legacy Rate Penalty at today’s 7.28% average. The share of loans at 6% or higher has tripled from its Q2 2022 trough of 7.3% to 22.5%, which is the slow thaw: every new purchase at today’s rates adds to the top bucket.
The segment view matters for anyone forecasting listings. The 49.1% below 4% faces an LRP of 43.3% or more. The 16.5% between 4% and 5% faces something between 27.5% and 43.3%. Those two groups, roughly two thirds of mortgaged owners, are the ones whose move-up decisions now look worse than they did in February.
What Is the Average Mortgage Rate on Existing Loans?
The average outstanding mortgage carried a 4.4% rate in Q2 2026, per FHFA NMDB. According to Axis Intelligence Research, the Legacy Rate Penalty at that average rate is 36.6%: the typical owner would pay that much more per month to carry the same balance at 7.28%. The average monthly principal and interest payment on outstanding loans was $2,044, up 6.6% from $1,917 a year earlier, across 51.4 million loans. NMDB values the stock of first-lien mortgages at $12.4 trillion, below the New York Fed’s $13.117 trillion because NMDB counts closed-end first liens only while the New York Fed uses all mortgage balances on credit reports; we publish both rather than reconcile them. Our mortgage statistics by state break the average rate and LRP down for all 50 states.
How Much Mortgage Debt Do Americans Owe?
U.S. households owed $13.117 trillion in mortgage debt at the end of June 2026, according to the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report for Q2 2026. Mortgage balances fell by $74 billion in the quarter but were still $182 billion higher than a year earlier. Total household debt stood at $18.771 trillion.
U.S. Household Debt Composition, Q2 2026
| Category | Balance | Quarterly change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage debt | $13.117 trillion | -$74 billion | New York Fed |
| Home equity lines of credit | $0.459 trillion | Rising | New York Fed |
| Total household debt | $18.771 trillion | -$13 billion overall | New York Fed |
| Mortgage share of total | 69.9% | Axis calculation | Axis Intelligence Research |
According to Axis Intelligence Research, mortgages account for 69.9% of all U.S. household debt ($13.117 trillion divided by $18.771 trillion). HELOC balances reached $459 billion, $142 billion above their Q1 2022 low, which fits the lock-in story: owners who will not refinance a 3% first lien are tapping equity through a second lien instead.
Mortgage Originations in 2026
New mortgage originations, including purchases and refinances, totaled $505 billion in Q2 2026, down from $530 billion in Q1 2026, per the New York Fed. Those figures predate the September rate spike, so the Q3 report due in November will be the first read on how 7% rates hit volume.
Sarah Davis, Axis Intelligence Research: A $74 billion quarterly drop in mortgage balances sounds like Americans paying off their homes. Some of it is scheduled amortization and payoffs on sales outrunning new loans. The HELOC line is the tell: owners still want liquidity, they just will not surrender a cheap first mortgage to get it. Lenders pricing second liens know this, and the spread on that product is where the margin now sits.
How Much Does a Mortgage Cost on a Median-Priced Home in 2026?
The median existing-home price was $429,100 in August 2026, up 1.6% from $422,400 a year earlier, according to the National Association of REALTORS. Axis Intelligence Research holds that price constant and runs it through four rate scenarios to isolate the effect of rates alone.
Monthly Mortgage Payment on a Median-Priced Home by Rate
| 30-yr rate | Monthly principal & interest | P&I as share of median income | Lifetime interest | Rate source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00% (legacy reference) | $1,638.87 | 22.5% | Not modeled | Benchmark |
| 5.98% (Feb 26, 2026 low) | $2,053.73 | 28.2% | $396,061 | Freddie Mac PMMS |
| 6.34% (one year ago) | $2,133.77 | 29.3% | Not modeled | Freddie Mac PMMS |
| 7.28% (Oct 1, 2026) | $2,348.76 | 32.2% | $502,275 | Freddie Mac PMMS |
Inputs: $343,280 loan (80% of the NAR August 2026 median price), 360 months, median household income of $87,460 for 2025 from the U.S. Census Bureau. Principal and interest only; property taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance excluded.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, the rate move since February 26 alone adds $295.04 a month, or $3,540 a year, to principal and interest on a median-priced home. Over a full 30-year term, the same loan costs $106,214 more in interest at 7.28% than at 5.98%. Against one year ago, rates alone add $215 a month at a constant price.
What Income Do You Need to Afford a Median-Priced Home?
Using the common 30%-of-income threshold for housing costs, Axis Intelligence Research estimates that a buyer needs $93,951 in annual income to keep principal and interest on a median-priced home at 30% at 7.28%. At February’s 5.98%, the same threshold required $82,149. The 2025 median household income of $87,460, a record in a series that dates to 1967, now falls $6,491 short, before taxes and insurance are counted. The median home costs 4.91 times median household income.
Regional prices change the math sharply. NAR’s August 2026 medians were $619,100 in the West, $556,900 in the Northeast, $366,500 in the South and $340,400 in the Midwest. A buyer in the Midwest at today’s rates faces a lower payment than the national median buyer did at February’s low.
Is Housing More or Less Affordable in 2026? Two Official Gauges Disagree
The two most cited affordability gauges point in opposite directions, and the reason is methodology, not data error.
| Gauge | Latest reading | Direction | Rate basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAR Housing Affordability Index | 104.7 (Aug 2026) | Improved from 101.2 a year earlier | August average rate of 6.67% | NAR |
| Atlanta Fed Home Ownership Affordability Monitor | 68 (Jul 2026) | Lowest in 21 years | Includes taxes, insurance and PMI, 10% down, 30% cost share | Federal Reserve Board speech citing Atlanta Fed |
The NAR index reads above 100, which by NAR’s construction means a median-income family qualifies for a median-priced home, and it improved year over year. The Atlanta Fed measure reads 68, which Governor Barr described as the least affordable level in 21 years. NAR’s August reading also used a 6.67% rate, 61 basis points below the October 1 PMMS average.
Axis Intelligence Research does not merge these two indices into one number. They use different cost definitions and different affordability thresholds, and averaging them would produce a figure with no meaning. We publish them side by side and note the one fact that matters for readers today: both were measured before the late-September rate spike.
Sarah Davis, Axis Intelligence Research: When two respected gauges disagree this much, read the footnotes before the headline. NAR is asking whether a median family can qualify for the loan. The Atlanta Fed is asking whether owning the home, with taxes and insurance, fits a 30% budget. The second question is the one your monthly bank statement answers.
What Is the Mortgage Delinquency Rate in 2026?
The delinquency rate on one-to-four-unit residential mortgages was 4.37% (seasonally adjusted) at the end of Q2 2026, according to the MBA National Delinquency Survey. That was down 7 basis points from Q1 but up 44 basis points from a year earlier. The share of loans in foreclosure rose to 0.67%, and the seriously delinquent rate (90+ days or in foreclosure) reached 2.06%.
Mortgage Delinquency Rates by Loan Type, Q2 2026
| Loan type | Delinquency rate | Change vs. Q2 2025 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| All loans | 4.37% | +44 bps | MBA NDS |
| Conventional | 2.72% | Serious delinquency +6 bps | MBA NDS |
| FHA | 11.79% | +122 bps; serious delinquency +227 bps | MBA NDS |
| VA | 4.89% | Rising | MBA NDS |
According to Axis Intelligence Research, FHA borrowers are 4.33 times as likely to be behind on payments as conventional borrowers (11.79% versus 2.72%). The New York Fed’s credit-bureau data shows the same direction from a different angle: the annualized flow of mortgage balances into serious delinquency rose to 1.52% in Q2 2026 from 1.29% a year earlier.
FHA loans serve borrowers with smaller down payments and thinner credit files, which is why stress shows up there first. MBA linked the deterioration to recent signs of labor-market weakness, rising delinquencies on other consumer debt and stretched affordability. For the credit-score side of this split, our credit score statistics break down how scores shape mortgage access and pricing, and our peer-to-peer lending statistics track how stress in unsecured credit compares.
Sarah Davis, Axis Intelligence Research: Conventional borrowers holding 2021 coupons have the most protected payments in the system: fixed, cheap and untouched by this year’s rate spike. The pressure lands on recent FHA buyers who stretched to buy at peak prices and now face rising escrow bills. A 227 basis point jump in FHA serious delinquency in one year is not a rounding error, it is a cohort problem.
Housing Supply, Inventory and First-Time Buyers
Existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August 2026, with inventory at 1.62 million homes and 4.9 months of supply, the highest in more than ten years according to NAR. First-time buyers made up 30% of sales and cash buyers 27%.
The Federal Reserve’s Governor Barr cited external estimates placing the national housing shortfall at roughly 2 million to 5.5 million units, and noted that 68% of prospective first-time buyers in the Fed’s 2024 household survey said they could not afford a down payment. Younger buyers feel this most; our Gen Z statistics show how housing costs are shaping that generation’s finances and career choices.
Sarah Davis, Axis Intelligence Research: Supply rose to 4.9 months while the LRP climbed. Those two numbers are not in conflict. Inventory is building from new listings by owners who must move and from slower absorption at 7% rates, while the voluntary seller with a 3% loan stays put. Expect more listings with price cuts, not a flood of move-up sellers.
Methodology
Data collection. Axis Intelligence Research assembled this dataset between October 1 and October 5, 2026, from seven primary publishers: Freddie Mac (PMMS weekly release and 2026 archive), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Household Debt and Credit Report, Q1 and Q2 2026), FHFA (National Mortgage Database aggregate statistics), the Mortgage Bankers Association (National Delinquency Survey, Q2 2026), the National Association of REALTORS (Existing-Home Sales, August 2026), the U.S. Census Bureau (Income in the United States: 2025) and the Federal Reserve Board (FOMC implementation note, Governor Barr’s September 23, 2026 speech, H.15 data via FRED). Every figure is logged with its source URL and retrieval date in the CSV.
Legacy Rate Penalty (LRP). LRP = PMT(r_current, 360) / PMT(r_legacy, 360) minus 1, where PMT = i(1+i)^n / [(1+i)^n minus 1], i = annual rate / 12, n = 360. The current rate is the Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average for the stated week.
Payment and income calculations. Loan amount = NAR August 2026 median price x 0.80 = $343,280, matching the 20% down assumption of the PMMS. Payment-to-income = annual principal and interest / $87,460. Income needed = annual P&I / 0.30. Lifetime interest = monthly P&I x 360 minus loan amount. Price is held constant across rate scenarios to isolate the rate effect.
Outstanding-loan statistics. Rate buckets, average rate, payment and loan counts come from the FHFA NMDB Outstanding Residential Mortgage Statistics file (All Mortgages, count-weighted values, Q2 2026), read directly from the FHFA download.
Scope. The PMMS reflects a top-tier borrower profile, so actual quotes for many borrowers run higher. Payment figures exclude taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance. Income is a 2025 annual figure applied to 2026 prices and rates. We declined to publish a year-ago mortgage-Treasury spread because the year-ago Treasury close was not verified from a fetched primary page; it appears in the CSV as a retracted row.
About This Dataset
Title: U.S. Mortgage Statistics 2026: Rates, Debt, Delinquency and Legacy Rate Penalty Dataset
Creator and publisher: Axis Intelligence Research
Coverage: United States; weekly rates January 8 to October 1, 2026; quarterly debt and delinquency through Q2 2026; monthly home prices through August 2026
Format: CSV, 204 rows, one observation per row, full provenance columns (source_org, source_document, source_url, retrieved_date, is_primary, axis_calculated, method_note, data_type)
License: CC BY 4.0. Free to reuse with attribution.
Download: mortgage-statistics-2026.csv (also published on Hugging Face, Kaggle and GitHub)
How to Cite This Page
APA: Axis Intelligence Research, & Davis, S. (2026, October 5). Mortgage statistics 2026: 7.28% rates, $13.1 trillion in debt and the Legacy Rate Penalty [Dataset]. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/mortgage-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research, and Sarah Davis. “Mortgage Statistics 2026: 7.28% Rates, $13.1 Trillion in Debt and the Legacy Rate Penalty.” Axis Intelligence, 5 Oct. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/mortgage-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research and Sarah Davis. “Mortgage Statistics 2026: 7.28% Rates, $13.1 Trillion in Debt and the Legacy Rate Penalty.” Axis Intelligence, October 5, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/mortgage-statistics/.
Frequently Asked Questions About Mortgages in 2026
How much more would I pay per month if I sold a home with a 3% mortgage and bought again at today’s rates?
On the same loan balance, you would pay 62.3% more per month at the October 1, 2026 average of 7.28%, according to the Axis Intelligence Research Legacy Rate Penalty. For a 4% loan the penalty is 43.3%, for 5% it is 27.5% and for 6% it is 14.1%.
Why did mortgage rates jump above 7% if the Fed only raised rates by a quarter point?
Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more than the federal funds rate. The Fed moved its range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, but the 10-year yield closed at 5.24% on October 1. With a spread of about 2.04 percentage points, that puts the 30-year average near 7.28%.
What income do I need to buy a median-priced home with a mortgage in 2026?
About $93,951 a year, if principal and interest on a median-priced $429,100 home with 20% down stays at 30% of gross income at a 7.28% rate, according to Axis Intelligence Research. That is $6,491 above the 2025 U.S. median household income of $87,460, before taxes and insurance.
How many U.S. homeowners have a mortgage rate below 4%?
About half. FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showed 49.1% of outstanding fixed-rate mortgages below 4% in Q2 2026, and 77.5% below 6%. Federal Reserve Board staff calculations on the same data describe about half at 4% or lower.
Are FHA mortgages more likely to go delinquent than conventional loans?
Yes. In Q2 2026, the FHA delinquency rate was 11.79% versus 2.72% for conventional loans, a 4.33x gap per Axis Intelligence Research. FHA serious delinquencies rose 227 basis points in a year, compared with 6 basis points for conventional loans, according to the MBA.
Did total U.S. mortgage debt go down in 2026?
It dipped in one quarter but is up over the year. Mortgage balances fell $74 billion in Q2 2026 to $13.117 trillion, yet were $182 billion higher than in Q2 2025, according to the New York Fed. HELOC balances kept rising, to $459 billion.
How much has the rate increase since February added to a typical mortgage payment?
About $295 a month on a median-priced home with 20% down. Principal and interest rose from $2,053.73 at the February 26 low of 5.98% to $2,348.76 at 7.28%, and lifetime interest on the loan rose by $106,214, according to Axis Intelligence Research.
Why do NAR and the Atlanta Fed disagree about housing affordability?
They measure different things. NAR’s index (104.7 in August 2026) tests whether a median-income family qualifies for a loan at the August rate of 6.67%. The Atlanta Fed monitor (68 in July 2026) includes taxes and insurance against a 30% budget. Axis Intelligence Research publishes both without merging them.
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