Fed Rate Hike Odds 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Sarah Davis | Last updated: October 21, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
The Fed Hike Pressure Index (FHPI), an Axis Intelligence Research composite of committee conviction, core momentum, real-rate slack and labor slack, registers a baseline reading of 81 out of 100. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants pencilled in a year-end rate above today’s 3.75%–4.00% range, yet the policy rate sits only 0.175 percentage points above headline CPI.
Quick Answer
A second Fed rate hike in 2026 is more likely than not, and December is the meeting the data points to. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, its first increase since July 2023. In the September Summary of Economic Projections, 16 of 18 participants placed their end-2026 dot above the current midpoint, and the median moved to 4.1%. Rate hike odds reported from CME FedWatch put an October 28 move at about 17% and a hike by December 9 at roughly 90% as of October 20. The catch: the December decision lands one day before the November CPI print.
Key Findings
- Axis Intelligence Research calculates a Fed Hike Pressure Index (FHPI) baseline reading of 81 out of 100 as of October 21, 2026, driven mostly by the share of FOMC participants who project a higher year-end rate.
- Axis Intelligence Research finds the Real Rate Cushion (RRC), the federal funds midpoint minus 12-month headline CPI, at 0.175 percentage points in September 2026, against 2.175 points in July 2023: a cushion 12.4 times thinner than at the last hike.
- Axis Intelligence Research measures the Dot Conviction Share (DCS) at 88.9% in the September 2026 projections (16 of 18 participants), up from 50% (9 of 18) in June 2026, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair.
- Axis Intelligence Research computes core CPI running at a 3.25% annualized pace over July–September 2026, versus 2.6% on a 12-month basis, which means underlying inflation is accelerating even though the energy shock dominates the headline.
- Axis Intelligence Research notes that the FOMC’s December 9, 2026 decision precedes the November CPI release on December 10, so the last consumer-price reading the Committee sees before deciding will be October’s, published November 10.
Will the Fed raise rates again in 2026?
The Committee’s own projections answer yes, by a wide margin. The September dot plot is unusually bunched: 12 participants placed the end-2026 rate at 4.125% (one more quarter-point hike), four at 4.375% (two more), and only two at 3.875% (no further move). Two FOMC meetings remain in 2026, October 27–28 and December 8–9, according to the Fed’s meeting calendar.
The minutes of the September 15–16 meeting put words to the dots: “most participants assessed that another increase in the target range would likely be appropriate by year end,” and several described the policy rate as “not restrictive or only mildly restrictive.” All participants supported the September increase, and the vote was 12–0.
How the 2026 projections shifted under Warsh
| Projection (median, end of period) | March 2026 SEP | June 2026 SEP | September 2026 SEP | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal funds rate, 2026 | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | Federal Reserve SEP, June; September |
| Federal funds rate, 2027 | NA | 3.6% | 4.1% | Federal Reserve SEP |
| Federal funds rate, 2028 | NA | 3.4% | 3.9% | Federal Reserve SEP |
| Federal funds rate, longer run | NA | 3.1% | 3.2% | Federal Reserve SEP |
| PCE inflation, 2026 | NA | 3.6% | 3.7% | Federal Reserve SEP |
| Core PCE inflation, 2026 | NA | 3.3% | 3.4% | Federal Reserve SEP |
| Unemployment rate, 2026 | NA | 4.3% | 4.1% | Federal Reserve SEP |
NA: not carried in the dataset for that vintage.
The 2027 median of 4.1% matters as much as the 2026 one. It says the median participant expects to hold the higher rate through next year rather than reverse it, the opposite of the “one-and-done insurance hike” framing that circulated after September.
Sarah Davis, Digital Finance: The dot plot moved from a split committee in June to a near-consensus in September, and that change in shape matters more than the 30-basis-point drift in the median. When nine participants sit above the current rate, the chair has to build a majority. When sixteen do, a hold needs a reason. For rate-sensitive balance sheets, that asymmetry is the real signal: the burden of proof has shifted to the data that would justify standing still.
What are the Fed rate hike odds for October and December 2026?
Market pricing has swung harder than the Committee’s projections. CME FedWatch does not publish its probabilities in a form we could retrieve directly, so the readings below are secondary reports of futures-implied and prediction-market odds, dated and attributed in plain text. They are not Axis calculations.
| Date (2026) | Meeting | Reported probability of a hike | Reported by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, after Williams remarks | Oct 27–28 | 40% (from 64% before his comments) | investingLive |
| Oct 2, after September jobs | Oct 27–28 | 17% | CNBC, citing CME FedWatch |
| Oct 2 | By Dec 8–9 | above 75% | CNBC, citing CME FedWatch |
| Oct 2 | Dec 8–9 (prediction market) | 65% | CNBC, citing Kalshi |
| Oct 7 | Oct 27–28 | 21.6% | Investing.com, citing CME FedWatch |
| Oct 7 | Range above 3.75%–4.00% by Dec 9 | 85.2% | Investing.com, citing CME-derived Fed Rate Monitor |
| Oct 13, before September CPI | Oct 27–28 | 22% | InvestorPlace, citing CME FedWatch |
| Oct 14, after September CPI | Oct 27–28 | 49% | InvestorPlace, citing CME FedWatch |
| Oct 20 | Oct 27–28 | 17% | The Motley Fool, citing CME FedWatch |
| Oct 20 | By Dec 8–9 | 90% | The Motley Fool, citing CME FedWatch |
October odds more than doubled on the CPI release and then retraced fully inside a week. December odds only rose. Traders are treating October as a live option and December as the base case.
How rate hike odds tracked the September decision
The run-up to September is the best test of how far to trust these readings. On August 28, after Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote, CNBC reported a nearly 56% chance of a quarter-point September hike on CME FedWatch, 48% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket; before the speech, prediction-market odds of a September hold had stood near 70%. By September 12, TheStreet reported CME FedWatch at 86.3%. Four days later the FOMC hiked, 12–0.
| Date (2026) | Reported odds of a September hike | Reported by |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, before Jackson Hole keynote | Hold priced near 70% | CNBC, prediction-market traders |
| Aug 28, after keynote | nearly 56% | CNBC, citing CME FedWatch |
| Aug 28, after keynote | 48% | CNBC, citing Kalshi |
| Aug 28, after keynote | 49% | CNBC, citing Polymarket |
| Sep 12 | 86.3% | TheStreet, citing CME FedWatch |
| Sep 16 | Hike delivered (+25 bp) | Federal Reserve |
Odds near a coin flip three weeks out became a near-certainty four days out, and the move followed a speech, not a data release. That is the pattern to expect into December: the Chair’s remarks between meetings move the odds as much as CPI does.
What are the odds of a half-point hike in December?
The tail is priced. On October 7, Investing.com’s reading of the CME-derived Fed Rate Monitor put 67.5% on a 4.00%–4.25% range after the December 9 meeting and 17.7% on 4.25%–4.50%, the level that requires two quarter-point hikes or one half-point move. CNBC reported on October 14, after the September CPI, that traders were betting the Fed may have to hike twice or by half a point in December. In the September dot plot, four of 18 participants placed the end-2026 rate at 4.375%, the midpoint of that higher range.
What Treasury yields imply beyond the futures
The Treasury bill curve offers a cross-check that does not depend on any vendor. On October 19, 2026, the H.15 release showed the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) at 3.88% and constant-maturity yields well above it.
| Maturity | Yield, Oct 19, 2026 | Spread over EFFR (3.88%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month | 4.27% | 39 bp | Federal Reserve H.15; Axis calculation |
| 6-month | 4.37% | 49 bp | Federal Reserve H.15; Axis calculation |
| 1-year | 4.50% | 62 bp | Federal Reserve H.15; Axis calculation |
| 2-year | 4.77% | 89 bp | Federal Reserve H.15; Axis calculation |
A 49-basis-point premium on six-month bills is consistent with roughly two quarter-point hikes over the next half year, though the spread also carries term premium and a bond-equivalent-versus-money-market basis gap, so it reads as an upper bound rather than a forecast.
How did the September 2026 CPI change the hike math?
The September CPI report, released October 14, showed headline CPI up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months, from 3.4% in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month and accounted for more than half of the all-items increase; energy prices are up 20.4% from a year earlier.
Headline vs core: where the pressure sits
| Component | Monthly change (SA) | 12-month change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items | 0.6% | 3.7% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Core (ex food and energy) | 0.3% | 2.6% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Energy | 5.2% | 20.4% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Gasoline | 9.1% | 34.2% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Fuel oil | NA | 74.2% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Electricity | NA | 4.4% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Food | 0.0% | 2.5% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Shelter | 0.4% | 3.2% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Airline fares | NA | 22.4% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Services less energy services | NA | 3.1% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
| Core goods | NA | 0.7% | BLS CPI, September 2026 |
Read alone, the headline argues for a hike and the 2.6% core argues against one. The monthly trend breaks the tie. Core CPI rose 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.3% in July, August and September; compounded and annualized, that is a 3.25% pace, against 2.6% on a 12-month basis. Headline CPI over the same three months annualizes to 4.49%. Shelter rising 0.4% in a month and airfares up 22.4% on the year are the channels through which fuel costs reach core prices.
The July 29 statement attributed the inflation pickup “in part” to supply shocks including energy and to the conflict in the Middle East. The Committee held that day, 9–3, with Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan dissenting in favor of a hike. By September, the dissenters’ position was unanimous.
Does the Fed react to CPI or PCE?
The FOMC states its 2% goal in terms of the PCE price index, which runs cooler than CPI in this cycle. The August personal income and outlays report put PCE inflation at 3.4% and core PCE at 3.0%, both down from 3.7% and 3.3% in July. CPI moves markets on release day; PCE anchors the Committee’s projections. The September PCE report is due October 29, the day after the October decision.
Real Rate Cushion (RRC): how restrictive is a 3.75%–4.00% policy rate?
Axis Intelligence Research defines the Real Rate Cushion (RRC) as the federal funds target midpoint minus the 12-month inflation rate. It is a deliberately simple, backward-looking measure of how far policy sits above realized inflation.
Formula: RRC = target midpoint − 12-month inflation rate. With the midpoint at 3.875% and headline CPI at 3.7%: 3.875 − 3.7 = 0.175 percentage points.
| Inflation gauge | 12-month rate | RRC, Sept 2026 | RRC, July 2023 (midpoint 5.375%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI | 3.7% (Jul 2023: 3.2%) | 0.175 pp | 2.175 pp | BLS CPI; Axis calculation |
| Core CPI | 2.6% (Jul 2023: 4.7%) | 1.275 pp | 0.675 pp | BLS CPI; Axis calculation |
| PCE (August) | 3.4% | 0.475 pp | NA | BEA; Axis calculation |
| Core PCE (August) | 3.0% | 0.875 pp | NA | BEA; Axis calculation |
The segment split is the point. On headline CPI, the cushion is 12.4 times thinner than at the July 2023 hike (2.175 ÷ 0.175). On core CPI, it is wider than it was then: 1.275 points versus 0.675. In 2023 the Fed was fighting broad core inflation with a large headline cushion; in 2026 it faces an energy-driven headline with core still contained. A hawk reads the headline column; a dove reads the core column. The minutes’ phrase “after more than five years of inflation above 2 percent” explains why the hawks won in September: the Committee is pricing the risk that a thin headline cushion lets expectations drift.
Sarah Davis, Digital Finance: The core-versus-headline divergence is what separates a supply-shock hike from a demand-shock hike. Lenders and treasurers should watch the core column of the RRC table: if core CPI’s three-month pace stays above 3%, the core cushion erodes from 1.275 points toward the headline figure and the December hike stops being optional. If energy fades and core cools, the 2027 dots will move first.
What is the Fed Hike Pressure Index (FHPI)?
The Fed Hike Pressure Index (FHPI) is an Axis Intelligence Research composite scored 0 to 100, where higher values mean stronger pressure on the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate at its next projection meeting. This is its baseline reading; Axis will recompute it after each CPI release and FOMC meeting.
FHPI formula and weights
FHPI = 0.35 × Committee Conviction + 0.25 × Core Momentum + 0.20 × Real-Rate Slack + 0.20 × Labor Brake
| Component | Weight | Input (as of Oct 21, 2026) | Scoring rule | Score | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committee Conviction | 35% | Dot Conviction Share (DCS) 88.89% | Score = DCS | 88.89 | Federal Reserve SEP; Axis calculation |
| Core Momentum | 25% | Core CPI 3-month annualized 3.247% | (rate − 2) ÷ (4 − 2) × 100, capped 0–100 | 62.36 | BLS CPI; Axis calculation |
| Real-Rate Slack | 20% | RRC (headline) 0.175 pp | (2 − RRC) ÷ 2 × 100, capped 0–100 | 91.25 | BLS CPI, Fed; Axis calculation |
| Labor Brake | 20% | Unemployment 4.2% vs SEP 2026 median 4.1% | 100 − (gap ÷ 0.5) × 100, capped 0–100 | 80.00 | BLS Employment Situation, Fed SEP; Axis calculation |
| FHPI | 100% | 81.0 | Axis Intelligence Research |
Worked sum: 0.35 × 88.89 + 0.25 × 62.36 + 0.20 × 91.25 + 0.20 × 80.00 = 31.11 + 15.59 + 18.25 + 16.00 = 81.0.
The Dot Conviction Share (DCS) is the share of SEP participants whose year-end dot sits above the target-range midpoint in force when the projections were submitted. September: 16 of 18 above 3.875%, or 88.9%. June: 9 of 18 above 3.625%, or 50%.
Committee Conviction carries the heaviest weight because the dots are the Committee’s own stated reaction function; the two inflation terms capture whether the data still justify it, and the Labor Brake measures how much room unemployment gives the hawks. A reading above 75 signals that a hike at the next projection meeting is the default; below 50, a hold is.
Why the labor market is a weak brake
The September Employment Situation showed payrolls up just 29,000, with July and August revised down by a combined 60,000 (July now −10,000). Unemployment was 4.2%, inside the 4.1%–4.3% band it has held since March. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% to $37.81, up 3.0% from a year earlier. Weak hiring with stable unemployment and 3.0% wage growth is not the profile that stops a hike; the September SEP even lowered its 2026 unemployment median to 4.1% from 4.3%.
What will the Fed know before the December 9 decision?
The data calendar is the most underpriced detail in the December debate. The BLS December 2026 schedule lists the November CPI for December 10, the day after the FOMC announces its decision.
| Date (2026) | Release or event | What it tells the Committee | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27–28 | FOMC meeting (no SEP) | Live option; odds near 17% as of Oct 20 | Federal Reserve calendar |
| Oct 29 | PCE, September | Fed’s preferred gauge after the gasoline spike | BEA |
| Nov 6 | Employment Situation, October | Labor Brake input | BLS |
| Nov 10 | CPI, October | Last CPI before December decision | BLS |
| Dec 4 | Employment Situation, November | Final jobs report before decision | BLS |
| Dec 8–9 | FOMC meeting with SEP | Decision, new dots, Warsh press conference | Federal Reserve calendar |
| Dec 10 | CPI, November | Arrives after the decision | BLS |
December scenario grid: October core CPI × unemployment
Axis Intelligence Research recomputed the FHPI for combinations of the October core CPI monthly change and the October unemployment rate, holding DCS and the headline RRC at current values.
| October core CPI m/m | Implied core 3-month annualized | FHPI if UR 4.1% | UR 4.2% | UR 4.3% | UR 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1% | 2.84% | 79.8 | 75.8 | 71.8 | 67.8 |
| 0.2% | 3.25% | 85.0 | 81.0 | 77.0 | 73.0 |
| 0.3% | 3.66% | 90.1 | 86.1 | 82.1 | 78.1 |
| 0.4% | 4.07% | 94.4 | 90.4 | 86.4 | 82.4 |
| 0.5% | 4.49% | 94.4 | 90.4 | 86.4 | 82.4 |
Source: Axis Intelligence Research scenario calculation; core momentum score caps at 100 once the 3-month pace reaches 4%.
The grid shows how hard it is to talk the Committee out of December. Only a soft October core print paired with unemployment rising to 4.4% pulls the index below 70, and no cell falls under the 50 line that would make a hold the default.
Sarah Davis, Digital Finance: Deciding on December 9 without November CPI means the October report on November 10 carries two months of weight. For anyone hedging floating-rate exposure, November 10 is the de facto December decision date, and the market’s 90% December reading will be stress-tested that morning, not on December 9.
How is the Warsh Fed different from the Powell Fed?
Kevin Warsh took the oath as Chair on May 22, 2026, after a March 4 nomination; his term as Chair runs to May 21, 2030. The September hike came at his third meeting in the chair, after June and July holds.
Three differences show up in the primary record. First, the reaction function: the December 2025 statement, Powell’s, cut the range to 3.50%–3.75% while flagging downside employment risks; nine months later the Committee hiked. Second, the language: the September 2026 statement ran three paragraphs against five in December 2025 and closed with a declarative line, “The Committee will deliver price stability.” Third, the dots: the end-2026 median rose from 3.4% in March to 3.8% in June and 4.1% in September.
The clearest statement of the new reaction function came before the hike, not with it. In his August 28 keynote at Jackson Hole, Warsh said the summer’s softer inflation readings “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved” and set his test: “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed.” That standard explains why a 2.6% core CPI did not stop the September move: the Chair is grading the trend, and core CPI’s three-month pace of 3.25% fails it.
The bond market’s longer-dated inflation gauges have not moved with the policy rate. The 10-year breakeven (nominal yield minus TIPS yield) stood at 2.35% and the 5-year at 2.38% on October 19, and the minutes describe longer-term inflation expectations as stable. That anchoring is the Warsh Fed’s main asset, and the reason the September statement framed the hike as delivering a “timelier return” to 2%.
Fed rate hike statistics: what a higher rate means for borrowers
The policy rate feeds directly into the bank prime rate, at 7.00% in the October 20 H.15 release, and indirectly into fixed-rate credit through Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.15% on October 19. Axis tracks the downstream effects in its mortgage statistics, household debt statistics and personal loan statistics. Savers see the other side in savings rate statistics, and fixed-income investors in bond ETF statistics. The CPI-W, which drives Social Security indexation, rose 3.9% over the year to September, a figure examined in our Social Security COLA statistics.
Methodology
Sources. Every figure comes from documents retrieved on October 21, 2026: the Federal Reserve Board (policy actions table, FOMC statements of December 10, 2025, July 29, 2026 and September 16, 2026, September 2026 minutes, June and September 2026 Summaries of Economic Projections, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, meeting calendar, May 22, 2026 press release), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI for September 2026 and July 2023, Employment Situation for September 2026, December 2026 release schedule) and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026). Market-implied odds are secondary press reports of CME FedWatch and Kalshi readings, flagged is_primary = no.
Calculations. All arithmetic was run twice in Python, once in floating point and once with exact rational arithmetic (fractions.Fraction). Three-month annualized CPI rates compound the published one-decimal seasonally adjusted monthly changes and raise the product to the fourth power; BLS index-level calculations can differ by a few hundredths. Yield spreads compare constant-maturity Treasury yields (bond-equivalent basis) with the EFFR (money-market basis) and include term premium. The policy-rate midpoint uses the target range in force on the stated date.
Index construction. FHPI weights are fixed. Score thresholds anchor to the Fed’s 2% goal (core momentum, real-rate slack) and to the Committee’s own unemployment projection (labor brake). The scenario grid holds DCS and headline RRC constant; a new SEP on December 9 resets DCS.
Scope. The FHPI measures pressure toward a hike at the next projection meeting, not the probability of one. It does not model balance-sheet policy, financial-stability considerations or the identity of individual voters. The SEP does not attribute dots to named participants, and Axis does not infer them.
About this dataset
The dataset behind this page, fed-rate-hike-odds-statistics.csv, holds 234 rows in long format: one observation per row with value, unit, as-of date, geography, segment, source organization, source document, source URL, retrieval date, primary-source flag, Axis-calculation flag and method note. It covers federal funds policy actions since July 2023, FOMC votes, June and September 2026 projections and dot distributions, September 2026 CPI detail, August 2026 PCE, September 2026 labor data, October 19, 2026 Treasury yields, the RRC, DCS and FHPI with every component, the December scenario grid, the release calendar and dated market-odds reports. It is published under CC BY 4.0 and distributed on Hugging Face, Kaggle and GitHub.
How to cite this page
APA: Axis Intelligence Research, & Davis, S. (2026, October 21). Fed rate hike odds 2026: CPI, the Warsh Fed and the December decision. Axis Intelligence. https://www.axis-intelligence.com/fed-rate-hike-odds-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research, and Sarah Davis. “Fed Rate Hike Odds 2026: CPI, the Warsh Fed and the December Decision.” Axis Intelligence, 21 Oct. 2026, www.axis-intelligence.com/fed-rate-hike-odds-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research, and Sarah Davis. “Fed Rate Hike Odds 2026: CPI, the Warsh Fed and the December Decision.” Axis Intelligence, October 21, 2026. https://www.axis-intelligence.com/fed-rate-hike-odds-statistics/.
Frequently asked questions
Will the Fed raise interest rates in December 2026?
A December hike is the Committee’s own base case: 16 of 18 participants projected a year-end rate above the current 3.75%–4.00% range in September, and futures-implied odds reported from CME FedWatch reached about 90% on October 20. The October CPI report on November 10 is the main risk to that path.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike at the October 28, 2026 meeting?
Reported CME FedWatch odds for October were 17% on October 20, after briefly reaching 49% on October 14 following the September CPI report. October is not a projection meeting, and no new dot plot will be published.
Why did the Fed raise rates in September 2026 after cutting in 2025?
Inflation re-accelerated. Headline CPI climbed to 3.7% as gasoline and other energy prices surged, core CPI’s three-month pace rose above 3%, and the minutes cite more than five years of inflation above 2%. The FOMC raised the range 25 basis points on a 12–0 vote, its first hike since July 2023.
How high will the fed funds rate go, according to the dot plot?
The September 2026 median projects 4.1% at end-2026 and end-2027, 3.9% at end-2028, and 3.2% in the longer run. Four participants see 4.375% at end-2026, which implies two more quarter-point hikes.
Which inflation data will the Fed have before the December 9 decision?
The September PCE (October 29), October CPI (November 10) and the October and November jobs reports (November 6 and December 4). November CPI is released December 10, one day after the decision.
Is the Fed hiking because of energy prices or underlying inflation?
Both, but the split matters. Gasoline accounted for more than half of September’s 0.6% CPI rise, while core CPI is up 2.6% on the year. The Committee’s concern is pass-through: core CPI’s three-month annualized pace of 3.25% and shelter rising 0.4% in September suggest energy costs are spreading.
Does a Fed rate hike raise mortgage rates?
Not directly. Mortgage rates track longer-term Treasury yields, which already embed expected hikes. The 10-year yield reached 5.15% on October 19, and Treasury 2- to 10-year yields rose about 35 basis points between the July and September meetings, according to the minutes.
What is the Fed Hike Pressure Index (FHPI)?
The FHPI is an Axis Intelligence Research index from 0 to 100 that weights committee conviction (35%), core inflation momentum (25%), real-rate slack (20%) and labor-market slack (20%). Its baseline reading is 81, above the 75 threshold where a hike at the next projection meeting becomes the default.
How is Kevin Warsh’s Fed different from Jerome Powell’s?
Under Warsh, who became Chair on May 22, 2026, the Committee moved from cutting rates in December 2025 to hiking in September 2026, raised its end-2026 rate projection from 3.4% (March) to 4.1% (September) and shortened its statement from five paragraphs to three.
What moves the odds of a rate hike between FOMC meetings?
Data releases and the Chair’s own words. The September CPI report more than doubled reported October odds in a day, from 22% to 49%. Before September, Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole keynote lifted CME FedWatch odds of a hike to nearly 56%, after odds of a hold had stood near 70%; the hike followed on September 16. <!– Schema: Dataset + Article + FAQPage JSON-LD in fed-rate-hike-odds-statistics-rank-math.md –>