Asset Management Trends 2027
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: Sarah Davis | Last updated: November 3, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
Quick Answer:
The asset management trends most likely to shape 2027, ranked by the Axis Trend Scorecard, are ETFs becoming the default wrapper (active ETFs hit $2.72 trillion in August 2026, per ETFGI), fees nearing the floor (0.32% in the US, Morningstar), growth without margin gains, and concentration. Axis Intelligence Research projects global AUM of about $181 trillion by end-2027 in its base case, up from $151 trillion (McKinsey).
Key Findings
- Axis Intelligence Research projects global AUM of about $181 trillion at end-2027 in its base case, from McKinsey’s $151 trillion at end-2025, with net flows of 3.2% and market appreciation of 6.4% a year.
- PwC’s 2023 forecast of $147.3 trillion in global AUM for 2027 was already matched in 2025 on BCG’s count ($147 trillion), two years early, per an Axis Intelligence Research track-record check.
- Actively managed ETFs held $2.72 trillion globally at end-August 2026 (ETFGI), about 2.5 times the $1.1 trillion PwC forecast in 2023 for 2027, an Axis Intelligence Research calculation.
- In US ETFs, a dollar in funds charging over 50 basis points earns about 15 times the revenue of a dollar in funds charging 10 basis points or less, Axis Intelligence Research calculates from McKinsey’s fee-bucket data.
- Tokenized US Treasury funds held $14.33 billion on November 3, 2026, per rwa.xyz, roughly 0.01% of global AUM, an Axis Intelligence Research calculation.
What Is the Asset Management Industry Outlook for 2027?
Bigger, cheaper per dollar, and more concentrated. That is the short version, and every primary dataset published in 2026 points the same way.
The industry has never managed more money. McKinsey puts global third-party managed assets at $151 trillion at year-end 2025, a record, with $82 trillion in the Americas, $37 trillion in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and $32 trillion in Asia-Pacific (McKinsey, October 2026). BCG counts $147 trillion for the same year, up 11%, in its Global Asset Management Report 2026 (April 2026).
The catch sits in the revenue line. BCG says more than 80% of the industry’s gross revenue growth in 2025 came from market appreciation rather than new money. McKinsey finds that North American and Western European managers took 52 cents of new cost to earn each new dollar of revenue in 2025, against 19 cents in 2023. The fee on a new dollar is lower than the fee on the last one, and the cost of servicing it is higher.
So 2027 hinges less on whether assets grow than on who collects the fee when they do. Read the asset number as the tide; read the basis points as the business.
Is the asset management industry growing?
Yes. Net flows equaled 3.2% of beginning-of-year AUM in 2025, inside the industry’s long-run range of 3% to 4%, and annualizing the first half of 2026 points closer to 5%, per McKinsey. Retail investors drove 61% of global asset growth between 2020 and 2025, according to BCG.
How Big Will Global AUM Be in 2027? The Axis Base Case
Axis Intelligence Research projects about $181 trillion of global third-party AUM at end-2027 in its base case. This is a projection, not a reported figure, built on McKinsey’s scope (third-party managed assets across 42 countries).
How the Axis Base Case is built
Most published forecasts apply one growth rate to a total. We split AUM growth into its two drivers, because they behave differently and only one of them is in a manager’s control:
AUM₍end-2027₎ = AUM₍end-2025₎ × (1 + net flow rate + market appreciation)²
- Starting value: $151 trillion at end-2025 (McKinsey).
- Net flow rate: 3.2% a year, the 2025 reading (McKinsey). Long-run range 3% to 4%.
- Market appreciation: 6.4% a year. McKinsey reports that roughly two-thirds of the industry’s growth over the past ten years came from market appreciation and one-third from new money, so we set market appreciation at twice the flow rate. This is an assumption, stated as one.
$151T × (1.096)² = $181.4T, rounded to $181 trillion.
Base, upside and downside scenarios
| Scenario | Net flows / yr | Market appreciation / yr | End-2027 AUM | What separates it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upside | 5.0% | 8.0% | ~$193T | McKinsey’s annualized H1 2026 flow pace holds for two years |
| Base | 3.2% | 6.4% | ~$181T | 2025 flow rate; market at the 10-year 2:1 ratio |
| Market flat | 3.2% | 0% | ~$161T | Flows continue, markets stall |
| Downside | 2026 at base; 2027 a 9.7% AUM drop | — | ~$149T | A repeat of 2022, when PwC recorded AUM falling from $127.5T to $115.1T |
Source: Axis Intelligence Research calculation; inputs from McKinsey (Oct 2026) and PwC (Jul 2023). All values are projections.
Sensitivity: each percentage point of annual growth, whether from flows or markets, moves the end-2027 figure by about $3.3 trillion. The gap between the base case and the flat-market line ($20 trillion) is six times larger than a one-point miss on flows. Managers can sell harder; they cannot sell their way out of a flat tape.
How the base case compares with published forecasts
No major firm we found publishes a 2027 global AUM figure in a current forecast, and we do not interpolate one. The closest comparison is PwC’s November 2025 base case of $200 trillion by 2030 from $139 trillion in 2024, a 6.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) (PwC, 2025).
Our base case runs faster than PwC’s path because it carries 2025’s market return forward, and because the scopes differ. PwC measures AuM held by asset and wealth managers; McKinsey measures third-party managed assets. The two cannot be added, averaged, or lined up year by year.
| Firm | Published | Base year → value | Horizon → value | Implied CAGR | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PwC | Nov 24, 2025 | 2024 → $139T | 2030 → $200T | 6.2% (firm-stated) | AuM held by asset & wealth managers |
| PwC | Jul 10, 2023 | 2022 → $115.1T | 2027 → $147.3T | 5% (firm-stated) | AuM held by asset & wealth managers |
| PwC (Asia-Pacific) | Jun 2026 | 2024 → $23.2T | 2030 → $34.5T | 6.8% (firm-stated) | Regional AuM |
| PwC (UK) | Jun 29, 2026 | 2024 → £12trn | 2030 → £16trn | 4.8% (firm-stated) | UK AuM |
| Axis Intelligence Research | Nov 3, 2026 | 2025 → $151T | 2027 → ~$181T | 9.6% (model) | McKinsey third-party AUM |
Asia-Pacific figures from PwC’s Asset and Wealth Management Revolution: Asia Pacific 2026 report.
Why Do AUM Estimates Differ So Much?
Because the industry has no single denominator, and even one firm’s history moves. For end-2025, BCG counts $147 trillion and McKinsey $151 trillion, a 2.7% gap. For end-2024, PwC’s $139 trillion sits 5.1% above BCG’s restated $132.3 trillion. Those are Axis Intelligence Research calculations from each firm’s published total.
BCG itself reported $128 trillion for 2024 a year ago (BCG, April 2025) and now shows $132.3 trillion for the same year, because its 2026 report converts every year at end-2025 exchange rates and revised its method and source data. A weaker dollar alone can add trillions to a past year.
The gaps are definitional, not a sign that anyone’s arithmetic is wrong: which countries are in, whether wealth managers’ discretionary assets count, how double-counted fund-of-fund assets are treated. Anyone citing “global AUM” should name the counter.
How Accurate Were the 2027 Forecasts Made in 2023?
This is the part of the page we will repeat every year. Three of PwC’s July 2023 calls for 2027 can now be checked against reported data.
| 2023 forecast for 2027 (PwC) | What has been reported since | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Global AuM reaches $147.3T | BCG: $147T in 2025. PwC’s own 2024 figure ($139T) needs only ~2% a year to hit it | Undershot: reached two years early |
| Active ETFs reach $1.1T, 7.5% of the global ETF market | ETFGI: $2.72T at end-August 2026, 11.3% of global ETF assets ($24.03T) | Undershot by a wide margin |
| Private markets reach about half of AWM revenues by 2027 | PwC (Nov 2025) and Moody’s (Dec 2025) now place that milestone in 2030 | Overshot: milestone pushed back three years |
Sources: PwC, Jul 2023; ETFGI, Sep 2026; PwC Nov 2025; Moody’s, Dec 2025. Active ETF share is an Axis Intelligence Research calculation (2.72 ÷ 24.03), both inputs from ETFGI’s August 2026 data.
The pattern is worth a sentence. Forecasters in 2023 were too cautious on the liquid, cheap wrapper and too eager on the illiquid, expensive one. If that bias persists in current forecasts, the 2030 ETF numbers are low and the private-markets revenue share is early.
PwC also predicted in 2023 that one in six asset and wealth managers would be acquired or disappear by 2027. No census of firm exits exists that would let us grade that one, so we don’t.
Biggest Asset Management Trends for 2027
Eleven trends, ranked by the Axis Trend Scorecard: four criteria scored 1 to 5 (adoption evidence, momentum, maturity, and low barriers, where 5 means the fewest regulatory or cost obstacles), equal weights, total scaled to 100. Scores are Axis Intelligence Research judgments; every one is tied to the evidence cited in its section. The scorecard ranks how real a trend is, not how loud.
| Rank | Trend | Adoption | Momentum | Maturity | Low barriers | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ETFs and active ETFs become the default wrapper | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 90 |
| 1 | Fee compression nears the floor | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 90 |
| 1 | Growth without operating leverage | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 90 |
| 4 | Concentration: plenty for the few | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 85 |
| 5 | Consolidation and M&A | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 80 |
| 6 | Europe’s T+1 switch and the 2027 rulebook | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 75 |
| 7 | Retail and regional growth engines | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 70 |
| 7 | Insurance and permanent capital | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 70 |
| 9 | Private markets go retail | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 55 |
| 9 | AI: the platform tax before the dividend | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 55 |
| 11 | Tokenized funds | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 45 |
Ties share a rank. Method in the Methodology section below.
What do the McKinsey, BCG, PwC, Oliver Wyman and other trend reports agree on?
Seven of the industry’s reference trend reports, set side by side by Axis Intelligence Research. A tick means the report treats the theme as a main finding or section.
| Trend | McKinsey | BCG | PwC | Moody’s | Oliver Wyman | Deloitte | Accenture | Lists | Axis score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI and operating model | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 7/7 | 55 |
| Private markets and alternatives | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 6/7 | 55 |
| Fee and margin pressure | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | 5/7 | 90 |
| Scale and concentration | ✓ | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | ✓ | 5/7 | 85 |
| Tokenization | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | 5/7 | 45 |
| Retail and distribution platforms | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | 5/7 | 70 |
| ETFs and active ETFs | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | ✓ | — | 4/7 | 90 |
| M&A, consolidation and partnerships | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | 4/7 | 80 |
| Alternatives in retirement (401(k)/DC) | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | 4/7 | 55 |
| Europe’s T+1 switch (Oct 2027) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0/7 | 75 |
Reports: McKinsey “Asset management 2026: Plenty for the few?” (Oct 2026); BCG “An Imperative for Growth” (Apr 2026); PwC 2025 Global AWM Report (Nov 2025); Moody’s 2026 outlook summary (Dec 2025); Oliver Wyman, “10 Trends Shaping Global Asset Management in 2026” (Dec 2025); Deloitte, 2026 investment management outlook (Nov 2025); Accenture, “2026 Asset Management Trends” (Feb 2026). Theme coding by Axis Intelligence Research. DWS’s “10 Investment Themes for 2027” is excluded: it covers market and asset-class views, not the asset management industry.
AI is the only theme on all seven lists. Axis Intelligence Research scores it 55 out of 100, well below its coverage, because the reports agree it matters but none shows realized margin gains yet. Oliver Wyman says productivity gains have not reached the P&L; McKinsey’s survey finds the value still sits in technology teams.
The reverse gap is more useful to a reader planning 2027. ETFs and active ETFs appear on only four of seven lists, yet they carry the strongest present-day evidence on this page ($2.72 trillion in active ETFs by August 2026, per ETFGI). And none of the seven lists Europe’s move to T+1 settlement, the only item here with a fixed legal date in 2027.
1. ETFs and active ETFs become the default wrapper
What it is: the exchange-traded fund (ETF) replacing the mutual fund as the vehicle investors buy, now for active strategies too.
Global ETF assets passed $24 trillion for the first time, reaching $24.03 trillion at end-August 2026, up 21.3% year to date, with record year-to-date inflows of $1.96 trillion (ETFGI). Active ETFs grew twice as fast: up 42.6% year to date, to $2.72 trillion (ETFGI). Active ETFs’ share of US ETF net inflows rose from 1% in 2014 to 26% in 2024, per Deloitte. In the US, 950 of the 1,131 ETFs launched in 2025 were actively managed (Morningstar), and US ETF net issuance hit a record $1.5 trillion in 2025 (ICI).
It is spreading. European ETF assets reached $3.97 trillion at end-August 2026, and the year’s inflows of $381.4 billion already equal 96.1% of 2025’s full-year record (ETFGI). China approved its first active ETFs in July 2026, per McKinsey.
What to watch in 2027: ETFGI’s monthly active-ETF reports; whether Europe’s flow mix moves beyond its overwhelmingly passive base (McKinsey). What would prove it overhyped: Morningstar notes many 2025 “active” launches are not very active. If active ETF growth comes mostly from mutual fund conversions rather than new money, the wrapper changes but the economics don’t.
2. Fee compression nears the floor
The asset-weighted average expense ratio on US mutual funds and ETFs fell to 0.32% in 2025 from 0.34% in 2024, saving investors about $6.8 billion, per Morningstar’s 2026 US Fund Fee Study. Twenty years earlier it was 0.80%. Passive fund fees fell 5.4% in a year; active fees fell 2.7%.
The money follows the price. The cheapest fifth of funds took in $694 billion while the other 80% lost $244 billion.
Here is where the fee actually hides. In US ETFs, products charging 10 basis points or less hold 59% of assets but earn 17% of revenue; products charging over 50 basis points hold 7% of assets and earn 31% of revenue, per McKinsey. Axis Intelligence Research calculates that a dollar in the premium bucket generates about 15 times the revenue of a dollar in the cheapest bucket ((31 ÷ 7) ÷ (17 ÷ 59) = 15.4). The industry’s assets live at the floor. Its revenue lives at the edges.
What would reverse it: Morningstar finds new-fund fees rising, with new mutual fund fees topping 1.00% in 2025 for the first time since 2015, driven by alternatives and leveraged products. If investors keep paying up for complexity, the average stops falling.
3. Growth without operating leverage
Operating leverage is the margin gain a business gets when revenue grows faster than costs. Asset managers aren’t getting it.
McKinsey reports North American and Western European managers’ revenue pools rose to $386 billion in 2025 while costs reached $250 billion; pretax operating margin edged to 35.2% from 34.6%. Technology was the fastest-growing cost center, up 13% to $41 billion. BCG finds that from 2010 to 2025, revenues grew 5.1% a year and costs 5.4%, leaving profit margins close to 30%, roughly where they stood in 2010. BCG calls it negative operating leverage. Oliver Wyman shows where the squeeze bites hardest: average margins run about 45% for managers above $2 trillion in AUM, 36% for those below $500 billion, and 26% for those in between (Oliver Wyman, Dec 2025). Mid-sized managers sit in a margin trough.
PwC’s survey adds the manager’s view: 89% report profitability pressure over the past five years, profit per unit of AuM is down 19% since 2018, and costs consume 68 cents of every revenue dollar.
What would prove it wrong: a measurable fall in McKinsey’s cost-per-new-revenue-dollar from 52 cents. That is the number to grade next year.
4. Concentration: plenty for the few
The pie grows; fewer hands get a meaningful slice. McKinsey’s October 2026 report quantifies it:
| Market | Then | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5 managers’ share of US passive ETF net flows | 86% (5 yrs ago) | 94% | +8 pts |
| Top 10 closed-end private credit managers’ share of fundraising | 44% | 72% | +28 pts |
| Top 10 private equity managers’ share of fundraising | 17% | 32% | +15 pts |
| Top 5 managers’ share of US retail inflows | 51% | 61% | +10 pts |
| Private-capital-backed insurers’ share of fixed & indexed annuity sales | 7% (15 yrs ago) | 24% | +17 pts |
Source: McKinsey, Oct 2026 (LIMRA, Morningstar, Preqin data).
At the ETF level, iShares, Vanguard and State Street SPDR managed 58.7% of global ETF assets at end-August 2026 and took 50.2% of the year’s inflows, per ETFGI. BlackRock alone reported $15.5 trillion in AUM at September 30, 2026 (company-reported, Form 8-K).
Wealth platforms have started charging for shelf space: McKinsey reports several large US platforms raised revenue-sharing and platform fees. The largest managers can absorb that toll. Smaller ones pay it out of margin.
5. Consolidation and M&A
Deal volume is high; deal size depends on the region. Banks, insurers and asset managers disclosed 1,137 deals in the first half of 2026, against 1,101 a year earlier, per EY. North American wealth and asset management deals rose to 213 from 177 while their value fell to $6.0 billion from $8.3 billion. Europe moved the other way on value: 134 deals against 108, with value jumping to $31.1 billion from $2.6 billion, largely on one $13.4 billion transaction. In US wealth management, ECHELON Partners counted a record 262 RIA (registered investment adviser) transactions in the first half of 2026 and expects about 500 for the year, against 466 in 2025 (company announcement, July 28, 2026).
McKinsey adds a European driver: bank- and insurer-owned managers are consolidating to spread a more expensive operating platform.
What to watch: ECHELON’s fourth-quarter 2026 report (early 2027) for whether the 2026 record holds.
6. Europe’s T+1 switch and the 2027 rulebook
T+1 means trades settle one business day after execution instead of two. The EU moves to T+1 on October 11, 2027, and ESMA declared the regulatory framework complete on October 16, 2026 (ESMA). The first hard deadline comes earlier: from December 7, 2026, investment firms and their clients must handle allocations and confirmations through electronic, standardised, machine-readable channels. Luxembourg’s regulator lists a further deadline on July 1, 2027 (CSSF). The UK and Switzerland plan to switch the same day.
For fund managers the friction is in FX and fund dealing cycles, not the trade itself. A fund that settles subscriptions on T+2 while its underlying securities settle on T+1 carries a funding gap every day.
Two other rule changes shape 2027 without landing in it. SFDR 2.0, the EU’s rewrite of its sustainable-finance disclosure rules proposed on November 20, 2025, would replace Article 8 and 9 labels with product categories; law firms tracking it (Proskauer, Baker McKenzie) expect application in late 2028 at the earliest. In the US, the Department of Labor proposed a safe harbor for selecting 401(k) investment options, including alternatives, on March 30, 2026; comments closed June 1, 2026. We found no final rule as of November 3, 2026.
7. Retail and regional growth engines
Retail is where the new money is. Retail investors drove 61% of global AUM growth from 2020 to 2025 (BCG) and about 85% of net flows in the Americas (McKinsey).
Europe surprised. First-half 2026 European flows rivaled all of 2025, with Italy, Switzerland and the Nordics contributing 31% of regional flows and the Middle East 12%, per McKinsey. In China, AUM across licenses topped $26 trillion in 2025, up 13%.
PwC’s forecasts rank the regions for the rest of the decade: Asia-Pacific grows fastest at a 6.8% CAGR to 2030, ahead of Latin America (6.6%), the Middle East and Africa (6.3%), North America (6.2%) and Europe (5.6%).
| Region | 2025 AUM (McKinsey) | PwC CAGR to 2030 (forecast, Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Americas | $82T | North America 6.2% · Latin America 6.6% |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa | $37T | Europe 5.6% · Middle East & Africa 6.3% |
| Asia-Pacific | $32T | 6.8% |
8. Insurance and permanent capital
Permanent capital is money that doesn’t redeem, such as insurance balance sheets. Private-capital-backed insurers now write 24% of US fixed and indexed annuity sales, up from 7% fifteen years ago (McKinsey). French insurers are also steering assets toward active fixed income for yield. For managers, an insurance mandate is the stickiest flow in the business, and the competition for it is now mostly between alternatives platforms.
9. Private markets go retail
Private markets remain the industry’s profit engine: they generate roughly four times more profit per billion dollars of AuM than traditional managers, and PwC projects their revenues at $432.2 billion by 2030, over half the industry total.
The retail channel is opening. AUM in Europe’s ELTIFs (European Long-Term Investment Funds) nearly tripled in three years to over $40 billion at end-2025, and evergreen funds in real estate, infrastructure and private equity kept attracting inflows in 2026, per McKinsey.
Credit quality is part of the test. Oliver Wyman puts the headline middle-market default rate at about 1%, approaching 5% once payment-in-kind and “amend and extend” cases are counted.
Then came the first liquidity test. Redemption requests from retail private credit vehicles exceeded $15 billion in the second quarter of 2026, concentrated in funds heavy in technology and software loans (McKinsey). Closed-end fundraising remains roughly half a trillion dollars below its peak, and McKinsey now expects the backlog of unsold 2021–22 deals to take 12 to 18 months longer to clear than it estimated a year ago.
What would prove it overhyped: quarterly tender results from semi-liquid funds. If redemption queues spread beyond software-heavy credit, the “retailization” story becomes a gating story.
10. AI: the platform tax before the dividend
Asset managers are spending on AI and mostly paying for it so far. McKinsey’s July 2026 survey finds measurable value concentrated in technology functions such as software development; uses in research, distribution and marketing are earlier and largely unscaled. Half of asset managers in PwC’s survey see convergence with wealth managers and fintechs as the biggest revenue lever, and they rank AI integration as the most important action for their business model by 2030.
BCG’s baseline estimate is more optimistic on the medium term: cost reductions of 25% to 35% over three to five years, with research coverage two to five times wider, provided firms redesign operating models rather than layer AI onto old ones. That is an estimate, not an outcome. The evidence for AI-driven margin gains in 2027 is thin; the evidence for AI-driven cost is in the $41 billion technology line. For what AI is doing to finance jobs more broadly, see our future of work trends.
11. Tokenized funds
A tokenized fund issues its shares as blockchain tokens. Tokenized US Treasuries reached $13.6 billion in April 2026, up 170% year on year, per BCG, and $14.33 billion of distributed value on November 3, 2026, across 119 assets, per rwa.xyz, down 3.23% over 30 days. By platform, Ondo ($3.1 billion), Franklin Templeton ($2.9 billion), Circle ($2.2 billion) and Securitize ($2.2 billion) lead. Against $151 trillion in global AUM, that is roughly 0.01%, an Axis Intelligence Research calculation.
PwC projects tokenized fund AuM rising from $90 billion in 2024 to $715 billion by 2030, a 41% CAGR. Even that forecast would leave tokenized funds at about 0.4% of PwC’s own $200 trillion 2030 total, by our calculation. McKinsey expects tokenization to deepen concentration, because the regulatory standing and cash infrastructure it requires sit with a few large players.
Status: a watch-list trend. Treasury and money market tokens are real; tokenized equity funds at scale are not yet.
What Could Change This Outlook?
Markets. The downside scenario is a 2022 repeat: global AUM fell from $127.5 trillion to $115.1 trillion that year (PwC). With more than 80% of revenue growth coming from markets (BCG), a flat or falling 2027 hits fees before it hits flows.
Private credit liquidity. A second quarter of heavy redemption requests would test the retail private-markets channel exactly as the US DOL rule moves toward finalization.
Platform tolls. Further increases in wealth-platform revenue-sharing fees would transfer margin from mid-sized managers to distributors.
Signposts to watch in 2027
| Date | Signpost | What it would confirm |
|---|---|---|
| December 7, 2026 | EU electronic allocation and confirmation rules apply (ESMA) | First T+1 readiness test |
| Monthly | ETFGI global and active ETF reports | Upside if active ETF inflows keep 2026’s pace |
| Late April 2027 (BCG’s past release pattern) | BCG Global Asset Management Report 2027 | 2026 AUM and revenue split between market and flows |
| April 2027 | ICI Investment Company Fact Book | US ETF net issuance vs 2025’s $1.5T record |
| July 1, 2027 | EU T+1 intermediate deadline (CSSF) | Operational readiness |
| October 11, 2027 | EU, UK and Swiss T+1 go-live | Settlement-cycle risk for cross-border funds |
| Quarterly | Semi-liquid private credit tender results | Downside if redemption queues widen |
| Not yet scheduled | US DOL final rule on 401(k) investment selection | Opening of the defined contribution channel to alternatives |
Methodology
Base case. The model uses McKinsey’s end-2025 AUM ($151 trillion) and 2025 net flow rate (3.2%), with market appreciation set at twice the flow rate based on McKinsey’s ten-year split of growth (two-thirds market, one-third flows). The downside applies the 9.7% AUM decline PwC recorded in 2022 to 2027 only. Growth is compounded annually over two years. We did not use McKinsey’s first-half 2026 AUM estimate as a starting point because the published exhibit labels could not be read unambiguously; we used the year-end figure stated in its text.
Reconciliation. Forecasts are shown at the precision and horizon each firm published. We did not interpolate 2027 values from 2030 forecasts. Implied CAGRs are the firms’ own.
Trend Scorecard. Each trend gets 1 to 5 on four equally weighted criteria; the sum (out of 20) is multiplied by 5. Adoption reflects measured scale today; momentum the latest growth rate or policy change; maturity how established the practice is; low barriers the absence of regulatory, liquidity or cost obstacles. The scores are our judgment and are published so readers can disagree with a specific number.
Limitations. Global AUM totals differ by several percent between firms because of scope and exchange-rate conventions, and BCG restates past years at current exchange rates. The market-appreciation assumption is a historical ratio, not a market forecast; Axis Intelligence Research does not forecast market or index levels. Tokenized-asset trackers disagree with each other by billions of dollars.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big is the asset management industry?
Global third-party managed assets reached a record $151 trillion at the end of 2025, according to McKinsey. BCG counts $147 trillion for the same year, up 11% from 2024. The difference comes from what each firm includes.
Will AI replace asset managers?
Not on current evidence. McKinsey’s July 2026 survey found that AI’s measurable gains at asset managers are still mostly in technology teams, not in investment research or client service. Technology spending rose 13% to $41 billion in 2025, so for now AI is adding cost.
Why are fund fees still falling?
Investors keep moving money to the cheapest products. Morningstar found the cheapest fifth of US funds took in $694 billion in 2025 while the rest saw $244 billion of outflows, pulling the average expense ratio down to 0.32%.
Are active ETFs replacing mutual funds?
In new launches, largely yes: 950 of 1,131 US ETFs launched in 2025 were active, per Morningstar. Global active ETF assets reached $2.72 trillion by August 2026 (ETFGI). Part of that growth is conversions of existing mutual funds rather than new money, per McKinsey.
What happened to retail private credit funds in 2026?
They faced their first real liquidity test. Redemption requests exceeded $15 billion in the second quarter of 2026, concentrated in funds with heavy exposure to software and technology borrowers, according to McKinsey. Funds with more diversified portfolios saw much lower redemption rates.
When does Europe move to T+1 settlement?
On October 11, 2027, alongside the UK and Switzerland. ESMA said the rulebook was complete on October 16, 2026, and the first compliance deadline, for electronic allocations and confirmations, is December 7, 2026.
What are the most important asset management trends for 2027?
On the Axis Trend Scorecard, the strongest are ETFs and active ETFs becoming the default wrapper ($2.72 trillion in active ETFs by August 2026, per ETFGI), fees nearing their floor (0.32% in the US, per Morningstar) and margins that stay flat as assets grow. Concentration and consolidation follow. AI and tokenization are widely discussed but score lower on evidence.
What is the future of asset management?
More assets, collected by fewer firms, at lower fees per dollar. McKinsey finds the top five managers took 61% of US retail inflows, up from 51% five years earlier. BCG finds margins near 30% for fifteen years despite assets more than tripling since 2010.
Who is the largest asset manager?
BlackRock reported $15.5 trillion in assets under management at September 30, 2026, in its third-quarter filing. In ETFs alone, iShares, Vanguard and State Street SPDR together held 58.7% of global ETF assets at end-August 2026, per ETFGI.
Grade-back commitment
We will compare this base case and the Trend Scorecard with reported outcomes in our January 2028 edition, and re-grade once BCG and McKinsey publish year-end 2027 AUM. The 2023 forecasts graded above are the first entries in that record.
Data: Download the forecast reconciliation, Base Case inputs and Trend Scorecard as CSV (CC BY 4.0): asset-management-trends.csv.
Cite this page: Axis Intelligence Research and Sarah Davis, “Asset Management Trends 2027: 11 Shifts, an AUM Forecast and the Fee Squeeze,” Axis Intelligence, November 3, 2026.
This analysis is not investment advice.