2027 Social Security COLA
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-author: David Park | Last updated: October 13, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
The 2027 Social Security COLA will land at 3.4% if September’s CPI-W simply holds at its August level, according to Axis Intelligence Research calculations from SSA’s official CPI-W table. July and August alone already lock in 3.318%, well above the 2.7% the 2026 Trustees Report assumed.
Quick Answer
The 2.8% COLA paid since January 2026 reached about 75 million people. For 2027, a flat September CPI-W produces a 3.4% COLA, or $70.41 a month for the average retired worker. Axis Intelligence Research’s COLA Lag Erosion Rate (CLER) shows the current check lost up to 3.52% of its purchasing power in 2026, at the May peak, the deepest erosion since 2022.
Key Findings
- According to Axis Intelligence Research, a September 2026 CPI-W of 328.095 or higher, a decline of no more than 0.12% from August, guarantees at least a 3.4% Social Security COLA for 2027.
- The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report assumed a 2.7% COLA for December 2026; CPI-W data through August 2026 already imply 3.318% before September is counted.
- Axis Intelligence Research’s COLA Lag Erosion Rate (CLER) averaged 6.28% in 2022, meaning the average retired worker lost $1,248 of purchasing power that year before the 8.7% COLA restored the level.
- Across 42 COLAs effective from 1984 to 2025, compounded increases grew benefits by a factor of 3.1564 against a CPI-W rise of 3.1558, a gap of 0.02%, per Axis Intelligence Research.
- A retiree who claimed in 2000 saw COLAs raise the benefit 82.01% through 2024 while the national average wage index rose 117.22%, a 16.2% slide relative to workers’ pay, according to Axis Intelligence Research.
What Will the 2027 Social Security COLA Be?
The 2027 COLA is set by one remaining number: the September 2026 CPI-W, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar schedules for Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern. Everything else in the formula is already published.
The base is fixed. Under the rule on SSA’s latest COLA page, the 2027 COLA measures the third-quarter 2026 CPI-W average against the third-quarter 2025 average of 317.265, the quarter that produced the 2.8% COLA. July 2026 CPI-W came in at 327.104 and August at 328.481. Their average, 327.7925, is already 3.318% above the base.
That leaves September a narrow job. According to Axis Intelligence Research, if September matches August exactly, the third-quarter average is 328.022 and the unrounded increase is 3.391%, which SSA rounds to 3.4%.
September CPI-W thresholds for each 2027 COLA outcome
| 2027 COLA | September 2026 CPI-W needed | Change vs. August CPI-W | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2% | 326.192 or higher | -0.70% or higher | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 3.3% | 327.143 or higher | -0.41% or higher | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 3.4% | 328.095 or higher | -0.12% or higher | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 3.5% | 329.047 or higher | +0.17% or higher | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 3.6% | 329.999 or higher | +0.46% or higher | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
Each row is the lower bound; the next row up is where the outcome changes. Formula: September CPI-W = 3 x 317.265 x (1 + (COLA – 0.05)/100) – 327.104 – 328.481. Values sit within a few thousandths of an index point of SSA’s own rounding edge.
Read the table from the middle. A 3.4% COLA requires September prices to fall less than 0.12% from August. A 3.5% COLA needs September prices to rise at least 0.17%. Anything below 3.2% would take a monthly CPI-W drop of 0.70% or more.
What a 3.4% COLA means for the average retiree’s check
SSA estimated the average retired-worker benefit at $2,071 a month in January 2026, after the 2.8% increase, in its 2026 COLA fact sheet. Applying each scenario to that figure:
| 2027 COLA scenario | Monthly increase, average retired worker | Net of projected Part B increase | Net COLA Retention Rate | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2% | $66.27 | $59.67 | 90.0% | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
| 3.3% | $68.34 | $61.74 | 90.3% | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
| 3.4% | $70.41 | $63.81 | 90.6% | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
| 3.5% | $72.48 | $65.89 | 90.9% | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
| 3.6% | $74.56 | $67.96 | 91.1% | Axis Intelligence Research estimate |
At 3.4%, the average retired-worker check would move from $2,071 to $2,141.41. The Part B column uses the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projection of a $209.50 standard premium for 2027, up $6.60 or 3.25% from the 2026 standard premium of $202.90 that CMS set on November 14, 2025. CMS sets the official 2027 premium in November.
The retention rate in the last column is the Net COLA Retention Rate (NCRR), the share of the COLA that survives the Part B change, which Axis Intelligence Research defined on its Social Security statistics page. Its 2026 reading was 68.0%. On these projections, 2027 would return roughly nine of every ten COLA dollars to the beneficiary.
Why the Trustees’ 2.7% assumption already looks low
The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, Table V.C1, released June 9, 2026, assumed a 2.7% COLA for December 2026 under its intermediate scenario, 2.9% under low-cost assumptions and 2.3% under high-cost assumptions. Even the most generous of the three is now below the 3.318% that July and August have locked in.
The reason is visible in the monthly series. CPI-W rose 2.95% between February and May 2026, from 319.422 to 328.829, and stood 3.52% above its August 2025 level by August 2026. The Trustees’ economic assumptions were set in February 2026, according to the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, before most of that run-up.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, the difference between the Trustees’ 2.7% and a 3.4% COLA is $55.92 versus $70.41 a month on the average January 2026 retired-worker benefit. For the program, a higher COLA raises outlays from December 2026 onward; the Trustees’ intermediate path then assumes 2.4% a year from 2027 through 2035.
David Park’s take: The forecasts you have seen this summer ranged widely because they were guessing at three months of prices. Two of those months are now on the record. Budget around 3.4%, treat 3.3% and 3.5% as the realistic edges, and wait for the November Part B notice before deciding what the raise is worth after Medicare.
Social Security COLA History: Every Increase Since 1975
Social Security has paid 51 automatic COLAs since 1975, averaging 3.7% with a median of 2.9%, according to Axis Intelligence Research analysis of the SSA COLA series. Before 1975, benefit increases required an act of Congress.
Social Security COLA by year, 1975 to 2025
| COLA effective | COLA | First paid in | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 1975 | 8.0% | July 1975 | SSA COLA series |
| June 1976 | 6.4% | July 1976 | SSA COLA series |
| June 1977 | 5.9% | July 1977 | SSA COLA series |
| June 1978 | 6.5% | July 1978 | SSA COLA series |
| June 1979 | 9.9% | July 1979 | SSA COLA series |
| June 1980 | 14.3% | July 1980 | SSA COLA series |
| June 1981 | 11.2% | July 1981 | SSA COLA series |
| June 1982 | 7.4% | July 1982 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1983 | 3.5% | January 1984 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1984 | 3.5% | January 1985 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1985 | 3.1% | January 1986 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1986 | 1.3% | January 1987 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1987 | 4.2% | January 1988 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1988 | 4.0% | January 1989 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1989 | 4.7% | January 1990 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1990 | 5.4% | January 1991 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1991 | 3.7% | January 1992 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1992 | 3.0% | January 1993 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1993 | 2.6% | January 1994 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1994 | 2.8% | January 1995 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1995 | 2.6% | January 1996 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1996 | 2.9% | January 1997 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1997 | 2.1% | January 1998 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1998 | 1.3% | January 1999 | SSA COLA series |
| December 1999 | 2.5% | January 2000 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2000 | 3.5% | January 2001 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2001 | 2.6% | January 2002 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2002 | 1.4% | January 2003 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2003 | 2.1% | January 2004 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2004 | 2.7% | January 2005 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2005 | 4.1% | January 2006 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2006 | 3.3% | January 2007 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2007 | 2.3% | January 2008 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2008 | 5.8% | January 2009 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2009 | 0.0% | January 2010 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2010 | 0.0% | January 2011 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2011 | 3.6% | January 2012 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2012 | 1.7% | January 2013 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2013 | 1.5% | January 2014 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2014 | 1.7% | January 2015 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2015 | 0.0% | January 2016 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2016 | 0.3% | January 2017 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2017 | 2.0% | January 2018 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2018 | 2.8% | January 2019 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2019 | 1.6% | January 2020 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2020 | 1.3% | January 2021 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2021 | 5.9% | January 2022 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2022 | 8.7% | January 2023 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2023 | 3.2% | January 2024 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2024 | 2.5% | January 2025 | SSA COLA series |
| December 2025 | 2.8% | January 2026 | SSA COLA series |
SSA notes the December 1999 COLA was originally determined as 2.4% and is effectively 2.5% under Public Law 106-554. COLAs from 1975 to 1982 applied to June benefits; since 1983 they apply to December benefits, paid in January.
Average Social Security COLA by decade
| Decade (effective year) | Average COLA | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1975 to 1984 | 7.66% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA COLA series |
| 1985 to 1994 | 3.48% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA COLA series |
| 1995 to 2004 | 2.37% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA COLA series |
| 2005 to 2014 | 2.40% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA COLA series |
| 2015 to 2024 | 2.83% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA COLA series |
The record is 14.3%, effective June 1980. Twelve COLAs reached 5.0% or more: all eight between 1975 and 1982, then 1990, 2008, 2021 and 2022. The ten COLAs effective from 2016 to 2025 averaged 3.11%, matching the “about 3.1 percent” decade average SSA cited in its October 24, 2025 announcement. That average hides two very different halves: 1.6% from 2016 to 2020, then 4.62% from 2021 to 2025.
Years with no Social Security COLA
Three COLA determinations came out to zero: December 2009, December 2010 and December 2015. Beneficiaries therefore saw no increase in January 2010, January 2011 or January 2016. In each case the third-quarter CPI-W had not risen above the third quarter of the last year that produced a COLA, which is the base the law requires.
Does the COLA formula keep up with inflation?
On the level, yes. According to Axis Intelligence Research, the 42 COLAs effective from 1984 to 2025 compound to a factor of 3.1564, while the CPI-W third-quarter average rose by a factor of 3.1558 between 1983 and 2025. The 0.02% gap is rounding.
The recent burst followed the same rule: COLAs effective December 2021 through December 2025 compound to 25.18%, against a 25.20% rise in third-quarter CPI-W from 2020 to 2025. The formula restores the price level every December. What it never restores is the months spent below that level, which is where the next section goes.
David Park’s take: “The COLA doesn’t keep up” is the complaint I hear most, and the long-run data say the level does keep up with CPI-W. The real loss sits inside each year, between the July-to-September measurement window and the January check. That gap has a size, and in 2022 it was large.
How Much Purchasing Power Does a Social Security Check Lose Before the Next COLA?
Every COLA is set from prices measured in July, August and September, applied to December benefits, then left untouched for twelve months. Prices keep moving. Axis Intelligence Research built the COLA Lag Erosion Rate (CLER) to measure that drift.
Definition: The COLA Lag Erosion Rate (CLER) is the average percentage of purchasing power a Social Security benefit loses, across the twelve months a COLA is in force, relative to the CPI-W price level the benefit was last indexed to.
Formula: CLER = average over benefit months December (t-1) through November (t) of (1 – CPI-W third-quarter basis / CPI-W for the month) x 100. The basis is the third-quarter average of the last year that produced a COLA. A negative CLER means prices fell below the basis and the check bought more than the formula protected.
Dollar translation: Lag cost = CLER x SSA’s January average retired-worker benefit after the COLA x 12.
Worked example, 2022: The 5.9% COLA paid from January 2022 was indexed to the third-quarter 2021 CPI-W average of 268.421. By October 2022, CPI-W reached 293.003, so the check had lost 8.39% of that purchasing power. Averaged over December 2021 to November 2022, the CLER was 6.28%. On SSA’s January 2022 average retired-worker benefit of $1,657, that is $104.01 a month, or $1,248.06 over the year.
Social Security COLA Lag Erosion Rate by payment year, 1985 to 2026
| Payment year | COLA in force | CLER | Peak monthly erosion | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 3.5% | 2.37% | 3.91% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1986 | 3.1% | 1.09% | 1.71% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1987 | 1.3% | 2.99% | 4.90% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1988 | 4.2% | 2.78% | 4.82% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1989 | 4.0% | 3.53% | 5.31% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1990 | 4.7% | 3.91% | 6.71% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1991 | 5.4% | 3.01% | 4.34% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1992 | 3.7% | 2.26% | 3.65% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1993 | 3.0% | 2.11% | 3.23% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1994 | 2.6% | 2.02% | 3.35% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1995 | 2.8% | 2.03% | 3.05% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1996 | 2.6% | 2.26% | 3.64% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1997 | 2.9% | 1.73% | 2.44% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1998 | 2.1% | 0.99% | 1.76% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 1999 | 1.3% | 1.75% | 3.09% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2000 | 2.5% | 2.66% | 4.08% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2001 | 3.5% | 2.09% | 2.92% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2002 | 2.6% | 0.79% | 1.84% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2003 | 1.4% | 1.67% | 2.45% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2004 | 2.1% | 1.98% | 3.48% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2005 | 2.7% | 2.78% | 5.17% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2006 | 4.1% | 2.05% | 3.46% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2007 | 3.3% | 1.46% | 3.31% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2008 | 2.3% | 3.54% | 5.88% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2009 | 5.8% | -3.09% | -1.65% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2010 | 0.0% | -0.86% | -0.35% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2011 | 0.0% | 2.47% | 3.66% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2012 | 3.6% | 1.18% | 2.17% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2013 | 1.7% | 0.92% | 1.56% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2014 | 1.5% | 1.02% | 1.86% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2015 | 1.7% | -1.09% | -0.19% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2016 | 0.0% | -0.24% | 0.63% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2017 | 0.3% | 1.49% | 2.44% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2018 | 2.0% | 2.09% | 2.98% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2019 | 2.8% | 0.96% | 1.81% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2020 | 1.6% | 0.69% | 1.53% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2021 | 1.3% | 3.90% | 7.19% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2022 | 5.9% | 6.28% | 8.39% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2023 | 8.7% | 2.09% | 3.43% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2024 | 3.2% | 1.82% | 2.63% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2025 (11 months) | 2.5% | 1.85% | 2.96% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
| 2026 (Dec 2025 to Aug 2026) | 2.8% | 2.06% | 3.52% | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA CPI-W |
Payment year 2025 uses 11 months because BLS did not publish an October 2025 CPI after a lapse in appropriations, as SSA notes on its CPI-W table. Payment year 2026 runs from December 2025 to August 2026.
Across the 41 complete payment years from 1985 to 2025, the CLER averaged 1.84%, with a median of 2.02%. Six years exceeded 3%: 1989, 1990, 1991, 2008, 2021 and 2022. By decade, the CLER averaged 2.61% from 1985 to 1994, 1.80% from 1995 to 2004, 1.15% from 2005 to 2014 and 1.80% from 2015 to 2024.
What the inflation lag cost the average retiree, 2022 to 2026
| Payment year | COLA in force | CLER | SSA average retired-worker benefit (January) | Lag cost per month | Lag cost per year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.9% | 6.28% | $1,657 | $104.01 | $1,248.06 | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA |
| 2023 | 8.7% | 2.09% | $1,827 | $38.25 | $459.01 | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA |
| 2024 | 3.2% | 1.82% | $1,907 | $34.78 | $417.36 | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA |
| 2025 | 2.5% | 1.85% | $1,976 | $36.50 | $437.96 | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA |
| 2026 (Dec 2025 to Aug 2026) | 2.8% | 2.06% | $2,071 | n/a | $383.46 to date | Axis Intelligence Research from SSA |
Benefit averages come from SSA’s 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 COLA fact sheets.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, the lag cost the average retired worker $2,562.39 in purchasing power from 2022 through 2025, before counting 2026. The 8.7% COLA of January 2023 brought the check back to the price level of mid-2022. It did not refund 2022.
The 2026 reading matters for the next few months. In May 2026, the average check bought 3.52% less than at its third-quarter 2025 basis; by August the gap was 3.41%, a $70.71 monthly shortfall on a $2,071 benefit. The May reading is the deepest single-month erosion since 2022, when the peak reached 8.39%; the peaks were 3.43% in 2023, 2.63% in 2024 and 2.96% in 2025. Benefits stay at that nominal level until the 2027 COLA arrives with the January 2027 payment.
When the check gained ground: zero-COLA years
The CLER turned negative in four payment years: 2009, 2010, 2015 and 2016. In 2009 the reading was -3.09%: CPI-W fell after its mid-2008 peak while benefits kept the 5.8% COLA indexed to third-quarter 2008 prices. The zero-COLA years that drew the loudest complaints were, on this measure, years when benefits bought more than the formula guaranteed.
David Park’s take: If your budget felt tightest in late 2022 and again this summer, the CLER says that was not your imagination. A practical rule from this table: the larger the gap between the September CPI-W and the prior year’s, the more of the coming year you spend behind prices. Keep a cash cushion sized to a few months of that gap, because the next COLA restores the level, not the months.
How Is the Social Security COLA Calculated?
The Social Security Act ties each COLA to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), published monthly by BLS. SSA describes the formula on its latest COLA page:
- Average the CPI-W for July, August and September of the current year, rounded to 0.001.
- Compare it with the same average for the last year in which a COLA took effect.
- Round the percentage increase to the nearest 0.1%. If there is no increase, or it rounds to zero, there is no COLA.
For the 2.8% COLA paid in 2026, the third-quarter 2024 base was 308.729 and the third-quarter 2025 average was 317.265: (317.265 – 308.729) / 308.729 x 100 = 2.8%. The increase applies to December benefits, paid in January. SSI payments rise for January and, because January 1 is a holiday, arrive at the end of December.
The CPI-W is not the headline CPI-U. It covers households of urban wage earners and clerical workers, which is why COLA forecasts built on headline inflation can drift from the official result.
Recomputing all 42 third-quarter-basis COLAs from the CPI-W values SSA displays reproduces 40 exactly. Two differ by 0.1 point: 1990 recomputes to 5.3% against the published 5.4%, and 1998 to 1.4% against 1.3%. Axis Intelligence Research publishes both discrepancies in the dataset rather than adjusting either figure; SSA’s table notes that pre-2007 indexes are shown to one decimal place and that some years include later BLS revisions.
The 2.8% COLA for 2026 reached about 75 million people: nearly 71 million Social Security beneficiaries and nearly 7.5 million SSI recipients, with some receiving both, according to the SSA press release of October 24, 2025.
Do COLAs Keep Retirees Even With Workers’ Wages?
No, and by design. A retiree’s starting benefit is indexed to wages through the national average wage index, but every increase after claiming follows prices.
According to Axis Intelligence Research, COLAs effective December 2001 through December 2024 raised a benefit claimed in 2000 by 82.01%. Over the same span, the national average wage index rose 117.22%, from $32,154.82 in 2000 to $69,846.57 in 2024. Relative to the average worker’s pay, that retiree’s benefit slid 16.2%.
This is the gap the COLA debate usually skips. Price indexing protects what a check buys, not where the retiree stands relative to working households. The longer someone collects, the wider that gap gets, which is one reason the retirement savings gaps tracked on our retirement savings statistics page compound with age, and why older households carrying debt feel each year’s lag more sharply.
Which Social Security Amounts Change Each January?
Not every January number moves with the COLA. SSI payment standards rise by the COLA percentage. The taxable maximum follows the wage index, though the Trustees note its increase is deferred in a year after a zero COLA; the maximum benefit comes from the wage-indexed benefit formula.
| Parameter | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLA paid in January | n/a | 5.9% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | SSA COLA fact sheets |
| SSI federal payment standard, individual | $794 | $841 | $914 | $943 | $967 | $994 | SSA COLA fact sheets |
| SSI federal payment standard, couple | $1,191 | $1,261 | $1,371 | $1,415 | $1,450 | $1,491 | SSA COLA fact sheets |
| Maximum benefit at full retirement age | $3,148 | $3,345 | $3,627 | $3,822 | $4,018 | $4,152 | SSA COLA fact sheets |
| Maximum taxable earnings | $142,800 | $147,000 | $160,200 | $168,600 | $176,100 | $184,500 | SSA COLA fact sheets |
| Average retired-worker benefit after COLA (January) | n/a | $1,657 | $1,827 | $1,907 | $1,976 | $2,071 | SSA COLA fact sheets |
The Trustees’ intermediate projection puts the 2027 taxable maximum at $190,200. Axis Intelligence Research does not project 2027 SSI standards or the 2027 maximum benefit on this page: SSA sets the official SSI amounts with the COLA announcement, and the maximum benefit depends on new wage-indexed benefit-formula bend points. Both will be added from SSA’s official fact sheet after October 14.
The state-level picture, including where the average check buys the most, is on our Social Security by state page.
Methodology
Collection. Axis Intelligence Research assembled this dataset on October 12, 2026 from primary sources only: SSA’s CPI-W table (monthly values 1983 to August 2026), the SSA COLA series (1975 to 2025), SSA’s latest COLA determination page, the national average wage index series (2000 to 2024), SSA COLA fact sheets for 2022 to 2026, SSA’s October 24, 2025 press release, Table V.C1 of the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, the BLS October 2026 release schedule, the CMS 2026 Medicare Part B fact sheet and the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report.
COLA Lag Erosion Rate (CLER). For each benefit month, erosion = 1 – (CPI-W third-quarter basis / CPI-W for the month). The basis is the third-quarter CPI-W average, rounded to 0.001, of the last year in which a COLA took effect; after the zero-COLA determinations of 2009, 2010 and 2015, the basis stays at the prior COLA year. CLER for payment year t is the mean erosion over December (t-1) to November (t), times 100. The series starts with payment year 1985, the first full year under the third-quarter basis. Lag cost multiplies CLER by SSA’s January average retired-worker benefit after the COLA and by 12 (by the months elapsed for 2026).
2027 scenarios. Third-quarter 2026 average = (327.104 + 328.481 + September) / 3. COLA = (third-quarter 2026 average / 317.265 – 1) x 100, rounded to 0.1. Threshold rows solve for the September value at each rounding edge. Dollar scenarios apply each COLA to SSA’s $2,071 January 2026 estimate. Net figures subtract the Medicare Trustees’ projected $6.60 Part B increase; NCRR follows the definition on our Social Security statistics page.
Other calculations. Cumulative factors compound (1 + COLA/100) by effective year. The wage comparison pairs COLAs effective December 2001 to December 2024 with AWI growth from 2000 to 2024, so each COLA year lines up with one wage year. Decade and multi-year averages are simple means. Every formula is repeated in the CSV method_note column.
Scope. CLER measures price drift against CPI-W, the index the law uses; it does not test whether CPI-W reflects older households’ spending, a separate question that requires BLS’s experimental elderly index (not included in this release, logged as a declined row). Lag cost uses SSA’s average January benefit; an individual’s figure scales with their own benefit. CLER ignores the 0.1-point COLA rounding, which moves readings by less than 0.05 points.
About This Dataset
social-security-cola-statistics-2026.csv holds 989 rows: every number on this page, all monthly CPI-W values from 1983 to August 2026, every COLA since 1975, the AWI series, each CLER reading with its peak month, the monthly purchasing-power series behind the dashboard, the 2027 scenario grid, two published discrepancies and three declined calculations. Each row carries value, unit, as-of date, source organization, document, URL, retrieval date, primary-source flag, calculation flag, method note and data type.
The dataset is updated when the official 2027 COLA is announced, when CMS publishes the 2027 Part B premium, and each month as a new CPI-W extends the 2026 CLER reading.
License: CC BY 4.0. Reuse with attribution to Axis Intelligence Research and a link to this page.
How to Cite This Page
APA: Axis Intelligence Research. (2026, October 12). Social Security COLA statistics 2026: The 2027 COLA math, every COLA since 1975, and what the inflation lag costs retirees. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/social-security-cola-statistics/
MLA: Axis Intelligence Research. “Social Security COLA Statistics 2026: The 2027 COLA Math, Every COLA Since 1975, and What the Inflation Lag Costs Retirees.” Axis Intelligence, 12 Oct. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/social-security-cola-statistics/.
Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research. “Social Security COLA Statistics 2026: The 2027 COLA Math, Every COLA Since 1975, and What the Inflation Lag Costs Retirees.” Axis Intelligence, October 12, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/social-security-cola-statistics/.
Dataset: Axis Intelligence Research, Social Security COLA Statistics 2026 dataset (COLA Lag Erosion Rate), 2026. CC BY 4.0.
Social Security COLA Questions Retirees and Planners Are Asking Before October 14
If September inflation cools, could the 2027 COLA still come in below 3.2%?
Only with an unusually sharp drop. July and August CPI-W already put the third-quarter average 3.318% above the base, so a COLA below 3.2% would need September CPI-W to fall more than 0.70% from August. A flat September gives 3.4%, and a 3.5% COLA needs September prices to rise at least 0.17%.
Why do COLA forecasts from different groups disagree?
Before the September CPI-W is out, forecasters must project up to three months of prices, and some anchor on headline CPI-U rather than CPI-W. SSA’s formula uses only the July, August and September CPI-W average, compared with the third-quarter 2025 average of 317.265. With two of three months published, the plausible range has narrowed to roughly 3.3% to 3.5%.
Will the 2027 Medicare Part B premium cancel out the COLA?
Not on current projections. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a $209.50 standard premium for 2027, up $6.60. At a 3.4% COLA, the average retired worker would keep $63.81 of a $70.41 increase, a Net COLA Retention Rate of 90.6%, versus 68.0% in 2026. CMS sets the actual premium in November.
Does a bigger COLA make up for inflation I already absorbed?
No. A COLA resets the benefit to the price level of the prior July to September; it does not repay the months spent below that level. Axis Intelligence Research’s COLA Lag Erosion Rate puts the 2022 shortfall at $1,248 for the average retired worker, which the 8.7% COLA of 2023 did not refund.
Is Social Security indexed to the inflation retirees actually face?
The law uses CPI-W, which tracks the spending of urban wage-earner households, not retirees specifically. Over 42 COLAs since 1984, benefits matched CPI-W to within 0.02%. Whether CPI-W understates older households’ costs is a separate measurement question that this dataset does not yet test.
Why did the 2026 COLA arrive later than usual?
SSA announced the 2.8% COLA on October 24, 2025. SSA’s CPI-W table also records that BLS published no October 2025 index because of a lapse in appropriations. For 2027, BLS has scheduled the September CPI for October 14, 2026, the date SSA uses to set the COLA.
Do SSI payments get the same COLA as Social Security?
Generally yes. SSA applies the same percentage to the SSI federal payment standard, effective one month later than Social Security benefits. For 2026, the individual standard rose from $967 to $994 a month and the couple standard from $1,450 to $1,491.
How often has Social Security paid no COLA at all?
Three times since automatic COLAs began in 1975: the determinations of December 2009, December 2010 and December 2015 were zero. In those years prices had not risen above the last COLA basis, and the COLA Lag Erosion Rate shows benefits actually bought more than the formula protected.