Holiday Scam Statistics 2026
By Axis Intelligence Research
Co-authors: Marcus Chen & Alex Rivera | Last updated: October 2, 2026 | License: CC BY 4.0
Americans filed 56,478 non-payment/non-delivery complaints with the FBI in 2025 and lost $503.4 million (FBI IC3). Axis Intelligence Research’s Undelivered Loss per Complaint (ULC™) puts the cost of one package that never arrives at $8,913 — and $13,039 for shoppers aged 60 and over, 1.46 times the national figure.
Quick Answer
Non-delivery and non-payment scams — the fraud type the FBI ties most closely to holiday shopping — generated 56,478 complaints and $503,373,587 in losses in 2025 (FBI IC3, April 2026). Axis Intelligence Research calculates the ULC™ at $8,913, down from $15,844 in 2024. For victims aged 60+, ULC™ rose to $13,039. In the UK, £11.8 million was lost to online shopping fraud over the 2024–25 festive season (City of London Police via NCSC).
Key Findings
- Axis Intelligence Research finds the Undelivered Loss per Complaint (ULC™) for U.S. non-delivery scams was $8,913 in 2025, down 43.7% from $15,844 in 2024, per FBI IC3 data.
- Axis Intelligence Research finds shoppers aged 60+ lost $13,039 per non-delivery complaint in 2025, 1.46 times the all-ages ULC™ and 1.62 times the under-60 figure.
- Axis Intelligence Research finds Americans aged 60+ filed 17.3% of 2025 non-delivery complaints but absorbed 25.2% of the losses; their losses rose 65.4% in one year while total losses fell 35.9%.
- Axis Intelligence Research finds non-delivery complaints involving cryptocurrency carried a ULC™ of $16,004, 1.80 times the overall figure, across 4,761 complaints in 2025.
- According to the BBB’s 2025 Scam Tracker Risk Report, 89.3% of people targeted by an online purchase scam lost money — Axis Intelligence Research calculates that is 2.24 times the 39.8% loss rate across all scams.
How Much Money Do People Lose to Holiday Scams?
The honest answer starts with a definition. No agency publishes a “holiday scam” total. What the FBI publishes is the crime type its own field offices name, every November, as the two most prevalent holiday scams: non-delivery (you pay, the goods never come) and non-payment (you ship, the money never comes). FBI IC3 folds them into a single category.
Non-Payment/Non-Delivery Scams, 2023–2025 (U.S.)
| Year | Complaints | Reported losses | ULC™ (loss per complaint) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 50,523 | $309,648,416 | $6,129 | FBI IC3 2025 Annual Report |
| 2024 | 49,572 | $785,436,888 | $15,844 | FBI IC3 2025 Annual Report |
| 2025 | 56,478 | $503,373,587 | $8,913 | FBI IC3 2025 Annual Report |
ULC™ calculated by Axis Intelligence Research: losses ÷ complaints.
Complaints rose 13.9% in 2025 while losses fell 35.9%. Non-delivery was the fifth most-reported crime type to IC3 in 2025, at 5.6% of all 1,008,597 complaints but only 2.4% of the $20.877 billion in total reported losses, per Axis Intelligence Research calculations on the FBI report.
Marcus Chen: Read the 2024 row as an outlier, not a trend. Losses more than doubled on flat complaint volume, then fell back in 2025 while complaints climbed. That shape usually means a handful of very large cases landed in one year’s bucket, not that every shopper lost more. The complaint count is the steadier signal, and it went up. More people are paying for things that never ship.
What Is the Undelivered Loss per Complaint (ULC™)?
The Undelivered Loss per Complaint (ULC™) is an Axis Intelligence Research metric: the average dollar loss attached to one FBI IC3 non-payment/non-delivery complaint, for a given year and victim segment.
Formula: ULC™ = non-payment/non-delivery losses ÷ non-payment/non-delivery complaints (same year, same segment, same IC3 release).
It exists because the two numbers the FBI publishes answer different questions. The complaint count says how often it happens. The loss total says how much moved. Neither tells a shopper, a retailer, or a card issuer what one failed delivery typically costs the person who reports it. ULC™ does, and it can be recomputed by anyone holding the IC3 report.
ULC™ by Age Group, 2025
| Age group | Complaints | Losses | ULC™ | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 20 | 2,351 | $2,391,036 | $1,017 | FBI IC3 2025 |
| 20–29 | 8,331 | $37,006,257 | $4,442 | FBI IC3 2025 |
| 30–39 | 9,947 | $69,016,236 | $6,938 | FBI IC3 2025 |
| 40–49 | 9,981 | $97,620,771 | $9,781 | FBI IC3 2025 |
| 50–59 | 8,158 | $73,863,630 | $9,054 | FBI IC3 2025 |
| 60+ | 9,743 | $127,041,813 | $13,039 | FBI IC3 2025 |
ULC™ by Axis Intelligence Research. Age-tagged complaints cover part of the total; IC3 excludes complaints with no age from age tables.
The gradient is almost monotonic. A non-delivery complaint from someone in their twenties averages $4,442; from someone over 60, $13,039. Younger victims report often and lose small. Older victims lose on bigger-ticket purchases.
Are Seniors Losing More to Online Shopping Scams?
Yes, and the gap is widening. Axis Intelligence Research tracks it with the Senior ULC Premium: 60+ ULC™ ÷ all-ages ULC™.
| Year | All-ages ULC™ | Under-60 ULC™ (derived) | 60+ ULC™ | Senior ULC Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $6,129 | $5,718 | $8,818 | 1.44× |
| 2024 | $15,844 | $16,902 | $10,044 | 0.63× |
| 2025 | $8,913 | $8,053 | $13,039 | 1.46× |
Source: FBI IC3 2025 Annual Report (all-ages and 60+ tables). Under-60 = (all − 60+ losses) ÷ (all − 60+ complaints). Calculations by Axis Intelligence Research.
In 2025, 60+ complaints rose 27.4% and their losses rose 65.4%, while losses across all ages fell 35.9%. Older shoppers filed 17.3% of non-delivery complaints and carried 25.2% of the dollars.
Marcus Chen: 2024 is the year the premium inverted, and it inverted because the under-60 losses spiked, not because seniors did better. Strip that year out and the pattern is stable: a senior’s non-delivery complaint costs roughly 1.4 to 1.5 times the average. The unglamorous entry point is the same one it always is — a too-cheap listing for a high-value item, paid by a method that can’t be pulled back.
How Common Are Online Purchase Scams?
Very — and they almost always cost the victim something. The BBB Scam Tracker, built on more than 146,000 published reports from the U.S. and Canada, ranks online purchase scams as the No. 3 riskiest scam of 2025, up from No. 4.
Online Purchase and Counterfeit Product Scams, BBB 2024 vs 2025
| Scam type | Year | Share of reports | Lost money | Median loss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Online purchase | 2025 | 28.4% | 89.3% | $68 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Online purchase | 2024 | 30.3% | 87.5% | $75 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Counterfeit product | 2025 | 3.1% | 90.5% | $80 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Counterfeit product | 2024 | 2.1% | 80.7% | $84 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| All scam types | 2025 | — | 39.8% | $93 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
Counterfeit product scams entered BBB’s top 10 for the first time in 2025, ranked No. 8 (tied).
Why the BBB Median and the FBI Average Don’t Match
BBB’s $68 median and the FBI’s $8,913 ULC™ describe the same crime from opposite ends. A median ignores the tail; an average is pulled up by it. BBB reports skew toward small consumer purchases; IC3 complaints include businesses and larger transactions. Axis Intelligence Research does not merge them. Read together, they say most online purchase scams are small, and the money is in the few that are not.
What Products Do Holiday Scammers Sell Most?
Clothes, by a wide margin. These are the products most mentioned in BBB online purchase and counterfeit scam reports in 2025.
| Product category | Mentions (2025) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Apparel | 6,426 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Pets | 3,145 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Cars/machines | 3,049 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Footwear | 2,439 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Furniture/appliances | 2,121 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Medical/nutrition | 1,444 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Toys and collectibles | 1,376 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Jewelry | 1,276 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Cosmetics | 1,117 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
| Digital devices | 977 | BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025 |
Marcus Chen: Apparel tops the list because the attack surface is cheap to fake: stock photos, a cloned storefront, a social ad. Pets rank second because the listing creates urgency and the “shipping fee” step repeats. Neither needs a breach or an exploit. The scammer only needs the buyer to pay before the box exists.
How Much Do Americans Lose to Online Shopping Fraud According to the FTC?
The FTC counts reports, not FBI complaints, so its figures sit on a different base. In its most recent full Data Book, the FTC ranked “Online Shopping and Negative Reviews” as the No. 2 fraud category of 2024.
| Metric (2024) | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Online shopping fraud reports | 383,441 | FTC Consumer Sentinel Data Book 2024 |
| Share reporting a dollar loss | 76% | FTC Data Book 2024 |
| Total reported losses | $432M | FTC Data Book 2024 |
| Median loss | $130 | FTC Data Book 2024 |
| Median loss, all fraud | $497 | FTC Data Book 2024 |
[older data] The FTC had not published a 2025 Data Book category breakdown as of October 2, 2026. The FTC’s 2025 headline — 3 million fraud reports and $15.9 billion in losses — comes from its March 2026 congressional testimony.
How Much Do UK Shoppers Lose to Christmas Scams?
| Festive season | Online shopping fraud losses | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2022 – Jan 2023 | £10.6M | NCSC / Action Fraud, Nov 18, 2024 |
| Nov 2023 – Jan 2024 | £11.5M | NCSC / Action Fraud, Nov 18, 2024 |
| Nov 2024 – Jan 2025 | £11.8M | NCSC / City of London Police, Nov 17, 2025 |
For the 2023–24 season, the NCSC reported an average loss of £695 per victim, with 43% of reports mentioning a social media platform and 18.9% an online marketplace. Axis Intelligence Research calculates the 2024–25 season grew 2.6% over the year before.
Are Holiday Scams Using AI and Crypto?
Crypto, measurably. AI, barely — in what victims report.
| Non-delivery segment (2025) | Complaints | Losses | ULC™ | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 56,478 | $503,373,587 | $8,913 | FBI IC3 2025 |
| Cryptocurrency nexus | 4,761 | $76,196,341 | $16,004 | FBI IC3 2025 |
| AI-related descriptor | 609 | $3,726,777 | $6,120 | FBI IC3 2025 |
Axis Intelligence Research calculates crypto touched 8.4% of non-delivery complaints but 15.1% of losses. The AI descriptor depends on a victim naming AI, so it is a floor.
Marcus Chen: The crypto row is the one that matters for anyone setting payment rules. A non-delivery scam paid in crypto costs 1.8 times the average one — partly because bigger purchases get pushed there, partly because nothing comes back. A card dispute is a recovery path. A wallet transfer is not. BBB found credit cards were the payment method in 44.7% of scam reports with a loss in 2025; that is also the rail with the best chargeback odds.
Methodology
Collection. Every figure was retrieved on October 2, 2026, from primary releases: the FBI IC3 2025 Annual Report (three-year tables, age tables, elder-fraud section, crypto and AI descriptor tables); the BBB Scam Tracker Risk Report 2025; the FTC Consumer Sentinel Network Data Book 2024 and the FTC’s March 25, 2026 testimony release; and NCSC releases of November 18, 2024 and November 17, 2025.
Axis metrics.
- ULC™ (Undelivered Loss per Complaint) = IC3 non-payment/non-delivery losses ÷ complaints, same year and segment.
- Senior ULC Premium = ULC™ (60+) ÷ ULC™ (all ages).
- Under-60 ULC™ = (all losses − 60+ losses) ÷ (all complaints − 60+ complaints).
- Loss-certainty multiple = BBB online-purchase susceptibility ÷ BBB all-scam susceptibility.
Choices. IC3 combines non-payment and non-delivery in one category, and its figures are annual, not holiday-only; we label them accordingly. IC3, FTC and BBB figures are never added together. IC3 losses are adjusted, reported losses; arithmetic was run in Python and checked against the CSV.
About This Dataset
holiday-scam-statistics.csv holds 107 rows: IC3 non-delivery complaints and losses 2023–2025 by age, crypto and AI segment; every ULC™ reading; BBB online purchase and counterfeit risk data with product mentions; FTC online shopping figures; and UK festive-season losses. Each row carries source_org, source_document, source_url, retrieved_date, is_primary, axis_calculated and method_note. Licensed CC BY 4.0; mirrored on Hugging Face, Kaggle and GitHub. We update it when IC3, the FTC, BBB or the NCSC publish new figures.
Cite as: Axis Intelligence Research, Holiday Scam Statistics 2026, 2026.
Cite This Page
- APA: Axis Intelligence Research, & Chen, M. (2026). Holiday scam statistics 2026: What a package that never arrives really costs. Axis Intelligence. https://axis-intelligence.com/holiday-scam-statistics/
- MLA: Axis Intelligence Research, and Marcus Chen. “Holiday Scam Statistics 2026: What a Package That Never Arrives Really Costs.” Axis Intelligence, 2 Oct. 2026, axis-intelligence.com/holiday-scam-statistics/.
- Chicago: Axis Intelligence Research and Marcus Chen. “Holiday Scam Statistics 2026: What a Package That Never Arrives Really Costs.” Axis Intelligence, October 2, 2026. https://axis-intelligence.com/holiday-scam-statistics/.
Holiday Scam Questions Shoppers, Retailers and Banks Ask
What does one undelivered online order cost a scam victim on average?
Axis Intelligence Research calculates $8,913 per FBI non-delivery complaint in 2025 (ULC™), from $503.4 million in losses across 56,478 complaints. The typical small-ticket loss is far lower: BBB’s median online purchase scam loss was $68.
Why do older shoppers lose more when the package never comes?
In 2025 the 60+ ULC™ was $13,039, 1.46 times the all-ages figure, per Axis Intelligence Research using FBI IC3 data. Older victims filed 17.3% of non-delivery complaints but carried 25.2% of losses.
Did holiday-season non-delivery losses fall in 2025?
Yes on dollars, no on volume. IC3 non-delivery losses fell 35.9% to $503.4 million, while complaints rose 13.9% to 56,478. Losses among victims 60+ rose 65.4%.
What are scammers selling in fake holiday listings?
Apparel led BBB’s 2025 product mentions with 6,426, followed by pets (3,145), cars and machines (3,049) and footwear (2,439). Toys and collectibles drew 1,376 mentions.
If I pay a fake store, how likely am I to lose the money?
Very likely. 89.3% of people reporting an online purchase scam to BBB in 2025 lost money, versus 39.8% across all scam types. For counterfeit products the figure was 90.5%.
Does paying with crypto make a non-delivery scam worse?
On FBI data, yes. Non-delivery complaints with a crypto nexus averaged $16,004 in losses in 2025, 1.80 times the overall ULC™, per Axis Intelligence Research.
How much did UK shoppers lose to Christmas shopping fraud last season?
£11.8 million between November 1, 2024 and January 31, 2025, according to City of London Police data published by the NCSC on November 17, 2025.
Is online shopping fraud the most common fraud the FTC sees?
It was the second most-reported fraud category in the FTC’s 2024 Data Book, with 383,441 reports, $432 million in losses and a $130 median loss.
Related on Axis Intelligence: Holiday shopping statistics · Black Friday statistics · Cyber Monday statistics · Online fraud statistics · Payment fraud statistics · Credit card fraud statistics